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PloS one2012; 7(4); e35284; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0035284

The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

Abstract: The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was 30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.
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Publication Date: 2012-04-20 PubMed ID: 22536366PubMed Central: PMC3335077DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0035284Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The study focuses on understanding the influence of weather conditions on the spread of a strain of influenza, specifically equine influenza (A/H3N8), during an outbreak. The researchers found that weather elements such as air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity have a significant impact on the rate of infection.

Study Objective and Methods

  • The objective of the research was to examine how factors like temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed, affect the transmission and spread of equine influenza (A/H3N8). This was intended to validate and expand on the knowledge gained from previous laboratory studies on influenza A viruses.
  • The study used geostatistics and survival analysis applied to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza. This method allowed the researchers to evaluate the association between infection risk and various meteorological conditions while controlling for factors specific to each premises.
  • The spread of the disease was analysed spatially and temporally using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves.

Results and Findings

  • The study determined that meteorological elements present three days before were strongly associated with the risk of influenza infection. This aligns with the known incubation period of equine influenza.
  • Relative humidity less than 60% and temperatures between 20-25°C were associated with the highest risk of infection.
  • High wind speeds, especially winds coming from the direction of infected premises, significantly increased the risk of infection. Specifically, wind speeds exceeding 30 km/hour were identified as a contributing factor to the spread of the virus.

Implications of the Study

  • The research provides an empirical basis for understanding how environmental conditions influence the spread of the influenza A virus. This gives us improved insights into the viral transmission dynamics under real-world field conditions.
  • This study is important for controlling and managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses. By extension, it can also provide valuable insights for managing other outbreaks of influenza A viruses.

To sum up, the findings reinforce the notion that weather can significantly influence the spread of influenza A viruses. This information can be used to manage and mitigate the impact of future outbreaks.

Cite This Article

APA
Firestone SM, Cogger N, Ward MP, Toribio JA, Moloney BJ, Dhand NK. (2012). The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak. PLoS One, 7(4), e35284. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0035284

Publication

PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
NlmUniqueID: 101285081
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 7
Issue: 4
Pages: e35284
PII: e35284

Researcher Affiliations

Firestone, Simon M
  • Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, New South Wales, Australia. simon.firestone@sydney.edu.au
Cogger, Naomi
    Ward, Michael P
      Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L
        Moloney, Barbara J
          Dhand, Navneet K

            MeSH Terms

            • Animals
            • Australia / epidemiology
            • Contact Tracing
            • Disease Outbreaks
            • Horse Diseases / mortality
            • Horse Diseases / transmission
            • Horse Diseases / virology
            • Horses
            • Humidity
            • Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype
            • Multivariate Analysis
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / mortality
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / transmission
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / virology
            • Proportional Hazards Models
            • Rain
            • Survival Analysis
            • Wind

            Conflict of Interest Statement

            The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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