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Home / Equine Research Bank / BMC Vet Res / A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of Af...
BMC veterinary research2015; 11; 127; doi: 10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4

A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France.

Abstract: African horse sickness (AHS) is a major, Culicoides-borne viral disease in equines whose introduction into Europe could have dramatic consequences. The disease is considered to be endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent introductions of other Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue and Schmallenberg) into northern Europe have highlighted the risk that AHS may arrive in Europe as well. The aim of our study was to provide a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of AHS introduction into France. The study focused on two pathways of introduction: the arrival of an infectious host (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via the livestock trade (PW-vector). The risk of introduction was calculated by determining the probability of an infectious animal or vector entering the country and the probability of the virus then becoming established: i.e., the virus's arrival in France resulting in at least one local equine host being infected by one local vector. This risk was assessed using data from three consecutive years (2010 to 2012) for 22 regions in France. Results: The results of the model indicate that the annual risk of AHS being introduced to France is very low but that major spatiotemporal differences exist. For both introduction pathways, risk is higher from July to October and peaks in July. In general, regions with warmer climates are more at risk, as are colder regions with larger equine populations; however, regional variation in animal importation patterns (number and species) also play a major role in determining risk. Despite the low probability that AHSV is present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines contributes most to the risk of AHSV introduction to France because it involves a large number of horse movements. Conclusions: It is important to address spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of ASH introduction and thus also when implementing efficient surveillance efforts. The methods and results of this study may help develop surveillance techniques and other risk reduction measures that will prevent the introduction of AHS or minimize AHS' potential impact once introduced, both in France and the rest of Europe.
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Publication Date: 2015-06-04 PubMed ID: 26040321PubMed Central: PMC4455332DOI: 10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research article presents a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into France. The researchers analyzed the probability of this disease, which severely affects equines, entering the country via infectious hosts and vectors involved in livestock trade, and estimated variations related to calendar months and geographic region.

Study Overview

  • The objective of the study was to quantitatively model and assess the risk of AHS introduction into France through infectious hosts and vectors (namely Culicoides midges) associated with the livestock trade.
  • The investigation focused on two introduction pathways: the arrival of an infectious agent within a host animal (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via livestock trade (PW-vector).
  • The researchers regarded a virus as ‘established’ if it resulted in local transmission, marked by at least one local equine host being infected by a local vector.
  • Data from a three-year period (2010 to 2012) from 22 regions in France was used in the study, allowing for both temporal and spatial risk assessment.

Key Findings

  • The model’s results indicated a very low annual risk of AHS being introduced to France, though significant spatiotemporal differences were discovered.
  • The risk is higher from July to October, peaking in July, and varies from region to region.
  • Notably, regions with warmer climates and colder regions with substantial equine populations had higher risk levels.
  • Aside from the geographic and climate factors, researchers found that patterns of animal importation, such as the number and species of animals imported, significantly influenced the risk.
  • Despite the low likelihood of AHSV being present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines posed the highest risk because it involves significant horse movements.

Conclusions and Implications

  • The study emphasized the need to consider spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of AHS introduction and implementing surveillance efforts.
  • The methods and results of this research could help in developing surveillance techniques and implementing risk reduction measures to avoid AHS introduction, or minimizing its potential impact if introduced in France and other European countries.

Cite This Article

APA
Faverjon C, Leblond A, Hendrikx P, Balenghien T, de Vos CJ, Fischer EA, de Koeijer AA. (2015). A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France. BMC Vet Res, 11, 127. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4

Publication

BMC veterinary research
ISSN: 1746-6148
NlmUniqueID: 101249759
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 11
Pages: 127

Researcher Affiliations

Faverjon, C
  • INRA UR346 Animal Epidemiology, Vetagrosup, F-69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France. celine.faverjon@vetagro-sup.fr.
Leblond, A
  • INRA UR346 Animal Epidemiology et Département Hippique, VetAgroSup, F-69280, Marcy L'Etoile, France. agnes.leblond@vetagro-sup.fr.
Hendrikx, P
  • ANSES, Direction scientifique des laboratoires - unité Survepi, 94700, Maisons-Alfort, France. pascal.hendrikx@anses.fr.
Balenghien, T
  • CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France ; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398, Montpellier, France. thomas.balenghien@cirad.fr.
de Vos, C J
  • Central Veterinary Institute, part of Wageningen UR, PO Box 65, 8200 AB, Lelystad, The Netherlands. clazien.devos@wur.nl.
Fischer, E A J
  • Central Veterinary Institute, part of Wageningen UR, PO Box 65, 8200 AB, Lelystad, The Netherlands. egil.fischer@wur.nl.
de Koeijer, A A
  • Central Veterinary Institute, part of Wageningen UR, PO Box 65, 8200 AB, Lelystad, The Netherlands. aline.dekoeijer@wur.nl.

MeSH Terms

  • African Horse Sickness / economics
  • African Horse Sickness / epidemiology
  • African Horse Sickness / transmission
  • Animals
  • Cattle
  • Ceratopogonidae / physiology
  • Commerce
  • Equidae
  • Models, Biological
  • Risk Factors

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Citations

This article has been cited 9 times.
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