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Home / Equine Research Bank / PLoS One / An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccin...
PloS one2019; 14(1); e0210885; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210885

An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country.

Abstract: Equine influenza (EI) is an infectious respiratory disease of horses that has never been reported in New Zealand (NZ). However, the 2007 EI outbreak in Australia, previously EI free, spurred the NZ government and stakeholders into evaluating alternative EI control strategies in order to economically justify any future decision to eradicate or manage EI. To build on the policy debate, this paper presents an epinomic (epidemiologic and economic) modelling approach to evaluate alternative control strategies. An epidemiologic model to determine how alternative EI control strategies influence the distribution of EI. Model results were then input into a cost-benefit analysis framework, to identify the return and feasibility of alternative EI eradication strategies in NZ. The article explores nine alternative eradication scenarios and two baseline strategies. The alternative scenarios consisted of three vaccination strategies (suppressive, protective or targeted) starting at three time points to reflect the commercial breeding-cycle. These alternatives were compared to two breeding-cycle adjusted baselines: movement restriction in the breeding season (August to January) or non-breeding season (February to July). The economic loss parameters were incursion response, impact to the commercial racing industry (breeding, sales and racing), horse morbidity and mortality, and compensation to industry participants. Results suggest that the economic viability of the EI eradication programme is dependent on when within the breeding-cycle the EI outbreak occurs. If an outbreak were to occur, the return on each dollar invested for protective or suppressive vaccination strategies would be between NZD$3.67 to NZD$4.89 and between NZD$3.08 to NZD$3.50 in the breeding and non-breeding seasons, respectively. Therefore, protective or suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised, regardless of season. As multiple industry stakeholders benefit from these strategies, the study will enable policy development and to better formulate a user-pays eradication programme.
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Publication Date: 2019-01-24 PubMed ID: 30677067PubMed Central: PMC6345452DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210885Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article
  • Research Support
  • Non-U.S. Gov't

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research article discusses the economic and strategic aspects of controlling an equine influenza outbreak in New Zealand. The results suggest that the economic feasibility of a control program is dependent on the timing of the outbreak, and that protective or suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised.

Epinomic Modelling Approach

  • The study adopted an epinomic (combines epidemiology and economics) modelling approach to assess various control strategies for equine influenza (EI), a respiratory disease that affects horses.
  • An epidemiologic model was used initially to ascertain how different EI control strategies could influence the spread of EI.
  • The outputs from this epidemiologic model were then incorporated into a cost-benefit analysis framework to determine the returns and feasibility of different EI eradication strategies.

Alternative Eradication Scenarios

  • The research examined nine different eradication scenarios and also two reference strategies.
  • The alternative scenarios included three vaccination strategies (suppressive, protective, or targeted), each initiated at three different time points to correspond with the commercial breeding cycle.
  • These alternative scenarios were compared to two baselines that took into account the breeding cycle: movement restriction in the breeding season (August to January) or non-breeding season (February to July).

Economic Loss Parameters

  • The study considered several economic loss parameters, including incursion response, impact to the commercial racing industry (in terms of breeding, sales and racing), horse morbidity and mortality, and compensation to industry participants.

Key Findings

  • The results suggest that the economic feasibility of the EI eradication programme hinges on when within the breeding cycle the EI outbreak occurs.
  • If an outbreak were to happen, the return on each dollar invested for protective or suppressive vaccination strategies would range between NZD$3.67 to NZD$4.89 in the breeding season and between NZD$3.08 to NZD$3.50 in the non-breeding season.
  • Therefore, irrespective of the season, protective and suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised.

Implications

  • As multiple horse industry stakeholders would benefit from these strategies, the data acquired from this study could inform policy development to structure a ‘user-pays’ eradication program.

Cite This Article

APA
Rosanowski SM, Carpenter TE, Adamson D, Rogers CW, Pearce P, Burns M, Cogger N. (2019). An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country. PLoS One, 14(1), e0210885. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210885

Publication

PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
NlmUniqueID: 101285081
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 14
Issue: 1
Pages: e0210885

Researcher Affiliations

Rosanowski, Sarah M
  • Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR.
  • Epicentre, School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Carpenter, Tim E
  • Epicentre, School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Adamson, David
  • The Centre for Global Food and Resources, Faculty of the Professions, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
  • Epidemiology and Population Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Rogers, Chris W
  • Equine Research Centre, Animal Production and Health Group, School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Pearce, Patricia
  • New Zealand Equine Health Association, Wellington, New Zealand.
Burns, Martin
  • New Zealand Equine Health Association, Wellington, New Zealand.
Cogger, Naomi
  • Epicentre, School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Australia / epidemiology
  • Breeding / economics
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Disease Outbreaks / economics
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
  • Horse Diseases / economics
  • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
  • Horse Diseases / prevention & control
  • Horses
  • Models, Economic
  • New Zealand / epidemiology
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / economics
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / prevention & control
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
  • Seasons
  • Vaccination / economics
  • Vaccination / veterinary

Conflict of Interest Statement

TEC, NC were employed by Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand. SMR was employed by Massey University and City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, during this project. DA was employed by The University of Adelaide and he is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the University of Liverpool. PP and MB were members of the New Zealand Equine Health Association. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ’author contributions’ section. None of the authors declare a competing interest in relation to these funding sources. This does not alter the authors’ adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

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