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Equine veterinary journal2025; 58(2); 549-563; doi: 10.1111/evj.70118

Bridging hosts: Domestic horse density and Hendra virus spillover risk in a changing landscape.

Abstract: Anthropogenic climatic and landscape change can drive behavioural shifts in wildlife and thus lead to increased risk of pathogen exposure for humans and domestic animals. While spillover research often focuses on the reservoir hosts or ongoing transmission in humans, livestock and companion animals can play important roles as bridging and amplifying hosts, facilitating the emergence of highly pathogenic diseases. Objective: To investigate the distribution and density of domestic horses in the context of their role as bridge hosts for Hendra virus and build models to study zoonotic emergence. Methods: Cross sectional. Methods: Government horse datasets (2011-2024) were analysed, and field surveys conducted in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, Australia, to estimate domestic horse distributions and density. Zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to examine spatial correlations between horse population density, flying fox foraging areas and Hendra virus spillover events across different landcover types. Finally, random forest models were used to predict property-level horse densities based on 209 landscape and socioeconomic covariates. Results: Horse populations were widespread across the study area, though field observations confirmed under-reporting in government datasets. Property size was the strongest predictor of horse density. A positive relationship in agricultural areas between Hendra virus spillover events and both locality-level horse density (p = 0.001) and cumulative winter occupancy of flying fox roosts (p < 0.001) was identified. These relationships were specific to agricultural landscapes, with negative associations in urban and forested areas. Conclusions: A previously undetected association between horse density and spillover was revealed, highlighting the importance of this integrated approach. Current limitations in horse population data present challenges for biosecurity and disease risk assessments in existing risk areas. Targeted surveillance and predictive modelling will be essential to mitigate future spillover risks and protect both animal and human health.
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Publication Date: 2025-11-14 PubMed ID: 41235837DOI: 10.1111/evj.70118Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

Overview

  • This study investigates how the density of domestic horses acts as a bridge host influencing the risk of Hendra virus spillover in changing landscapes of southeastern Australia.
  • The research combines government datasets, field surveys, and statistical modeling to understand the spatial relationships between horse populations, flying fox activity, and Hendra virus spillover events.

Background and Importance

  • Anthropogenic changes such as climate and landscape modification can alter wildlife behavior, potentially increasing the exposure risk of pathogens to humans and domestic animals.
  • Hendra virus is a zoonotic pathogen transmitted from flying foxes (the natural reservoir) to horses, which then can transmit it to humans.
  • Domestic horses act as bridging hosts, playing a critical role in pathogen transmission from wildlife reservoirs to humans.
  • Understanding the distribution and density of horses helps to model and mitigate spillover risks, which is crucial for biosecurity and public health.

Research Objectives

  • Investigate the distribution and density of domestic horses in southeastern Queensland and northeast New South Wales, Australia.
  • Assess the role of horses as bridge hosts in Hendra virus spillover events.
  • Build statistical models to explore spatial correlations between horse density, flying fox foraging activity, and spillover occurrences.
  • Develop predictive models to estimate horse densities on properties using various landscape and socioeconomic factors.

Methods

  • Data sources: Government horse population datasets from 2011-2024 and field surveys conducted in the study regions.
  • Statistical modeling:
    • Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models to handle count data with excess zeros, used to examine spatial relationships between horse densities, flying fox foraging areas, landcover types, and spillover events.
    • Random forest models to predict horse density at the property level based on 209 landscape and socioeconomic variables.
  • Field Observations: Supplemented government data, addressing under-reporting issues.

Key Findings

  • Domestic horse populations are widespread across the study area, though government datasets underestimate actual numbers.
  • Property size is the strongest predictor of horse density, i.e., larger properties tend to have more horses.
  • In agricultural landscapes:
    • A significant positive correlation exists between horse density and Hendra virus spillover events (p = 0.001).
    • Cumulative winter occupancy of flying fox roosts also shows a strong positive association with spillover risk (p < 0.001).
  • In contrast, urban and forested landscapes show negative associations between horse density and spillover events, indicating landscape-specific dynamics.
  • The integrated modeling approach reveals associations previously undetected in past research.

Implications and Conclusions

  • Horse density is a critical, previously underappreciated factor influencing Hendra virus spillover risk, especially in agricultural landscapes.
  • Under-reporting and limitations in available horse population data impede accurate biosecurity assessments and disease risk forecasting.
  • Targeted surveillance efforts and enhanced predictive models are essential for:
    • Monitoring horse populations more accurately.
    • Identifying high-risk spillover areas.
    • Developing interventions to prevent virus transmission to horses and humans.
  • The study highlights the value of combining ecological, epidemiological, and socioeconomic data to understand and mitigate zoonotic disease emergence.

Cite This Article

APA
Linnegar B, Hoegh A, McCallum H, Peel AJ. (2025). Bridging hosts: Domestic horse density and Hendra virus spillover risk in a changing landscape. Equine Vet J, 58(2), 549-563. https://doi.org/10.1111/evj.70118

Publication

Equine veterinary journal
ISSN: 2042-3306
NlmUniqueID: 0173320
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 58
Issue: 2
Pages: 549-563

Researcher Affiliations

Linnegar, Belinda
  • School of Environment & Science, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Hoegh, Andrew
  • Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA.
McCallum, Hamish
  • School of Environment & Science, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Peel, Alison J
  • School of Environment & Science, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  • Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Horses
  • Henipavirus Infections / veterinary
  • Henipavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Henipavirus Infections / virology
  • Henipavirus Infections / transmission
  • Hendra Virus / physiology
  • Horse Diseases / virology
  • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
  • Horse Diseases / transmission
  • Queensland / epidemiology
  • Population Density
  • New South Wales / epidemiology
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Risk Factors

Grant Funding

  • Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship
  • EF-2133763 / National Science Foundation
  • EF-2231624 / National Science Foundation
  • DE190100710 / Australian Research Council

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