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Home / Equine Research Bank / J R Soc Interface / Control of equine influenza: scenario testing using a realis...
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface2009; 7(42); 67-79; doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0030

Control of equine influenza: scenario testing using a realistic metapopulation model of spread.

Abstract: We present a metapopulation model of the spread of equine influenza among thoroughbred horses parametrized with data from a 2003 outbreak in Newmarket, UK. The number of horses initially susceptible is derived from a threshold theorem and a published statistical model. Two simulated likelihood-based methods are used to find the within- and between-yard transmissions using both exponential and empirical latent and infectious periods. We demonstrate that the 2003 outbreak was largely locally driven and use the parametrized model to address important questions of control. The chance of a large epidemic is shown to be largely dependent on the size of the index yard. The impact of poor responders to vaccination is estimated under different scenarios. A small proportion of poor responders strongly influences the efficiency of vaccine policies, which increases risk further when the vaccine and infecting strains differ following antigenic drift. Finally, the use of vaccinating in the face of an outbreak is evaluated at a global and individual management group level. The benefits for an individual horse trainer are found to be substantial, although this is influenced by the behaviour of other trainers.
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Publication Date: 2009-04-01 PubMed ID: 19364721PubMed Central: PMC2839373DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0030Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research discusses the use of a metapopulation model to analyze the spread of equine influenza among thoroughbred horses. It also evaluates factors influencing the efficiency of vaccine policies and the benefits of vaccination during an outbreak.

Metapopulation Model and Data Parameterization

  • The researchers used a metapopulation model, a type of model that considers populations separated by space, to understand the spread of equine influenza among thoroughbred horses.
  • Data from a 2003 outbreak in Newmarket, UK, was used to parameterize the model. Parameterization involves using specific data to define or limit the scope of the model.
  • The number of horses that were initially susceptible to the infection was determined using a threshold theorem and a published statistical model.

    • Determination of Transmissions

    • The model employed two simulated likelihood-based methods to identify the within- and between-yard (referring to individual horse training yards) transmissions.
    • Both exponential and empirical latent and infectious periods were considered. The latent period is the time between infection and contagiousness, while the infectious period is the duration a host remains infectious.

      • Epidemic Factors and Vaccine Efficacy

      • The research demonstrated that the 2003 outbreak was mainly local and the chance of a large epidemic depended largely on the size of the index yard (the yard where the infection began).
      • The efficiency of vaccination policies was significantly affected by the presence of ‘poor responders’ to the vaccine – those horses that showed a weak or no immune response. The risk was even greater when the vaccine and the infecting strains varied due to antigenic drift (small changes in the genes of the virus).

        • Vaccination Impact

        • Furthermore, this research evaluated the impact of vaccinating during an outbreak at both global and individual management group levels.
        • The benefits for an individual horse trainer were found to be considerable, with the response being influenced by the actions of other trainers.

Cite This Article

APA
Baguelin M, Newton JR, Demiris N, Daly J, Mumford JA, Wood JL. (2009). Control of equine influenza: scenario testing using a realistic metapopulation model of spread. J R Soc Interface, 7(42), 67-79. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0030

Publication

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
ISSN: 1742-5662
NlmUniqueID: 101217269
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 7
Issue: 42
Pages: 67-79

Researcher Affiliations

Baguelin, M
  • Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket CB8 7UU, UK. mb556@cam.ac.uk
Newton, J R
    Demiris, N
      Daly, J
        Mumford, J A
          Wood, J L N

            MeSH Terms

            • Animals
            • Computer Simulation
            • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
            • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
            • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
            • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
            • Horse Diseases / prevention & control
            • Horses
            • Incidence
            • Models, Biological
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / prevention & control
            • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
            • Population Dynamics
            • Proportional Hazards Models
            • Risk Assessment / methods
            • Risk Factors
            • United Kingdom / epidemiology

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            Citations

            This article has been cited 8 times.
            1. Nixon EJ, Brooks-Pollock E, Wall R. Sheep scab spatial distribution: the roles of transmission pathways.. Parasit Vectors 2021 Jun 29;14(1):344.
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