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Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2016; 21(31); doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.31.30309

Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium.

Abstract: This study aimed at estimating, in a prospective scenario, the potential economic impact of a possible epidemic of WNV infection in Belgium, based on 2012 values for the equine and human health sectors, in order to increase preparedness and help decision-makers. Modelling of risk areas, based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the main vector of the virus, allowed us to determine equine and human populations at risk. Characteristics of the different clinical forms of the disease based on past epidemics in Europe allowed morbidity among horses and humans to be estimated. The main costs for the equine sector were vaccination and replacement value of dead or euthanised horses. The choice of the vaccination strategy would have important consequences in terms of cost. Vaccination of the country's whole population of horses, based on a worst-case scenario, would cost more than EUR 30 million; for areas at risk, the cost would be around EUR 16-17 million. Regarding the impact on human health, short-term costs and socio-economic losses were estimated for patients who developed the neuroinvasive form of the disease, as no vaccine is available yet for humans. Hospital charges of around EUR 3,600 for a case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease and EUR 4,500 for a case of acute flaccid paralysis would be the major financial consequence of an epidemic of West Nile virus infection in humans in Belgium.
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Publication Date: 2016-08-16 PubMed ID: 27526394PubMed Central: PMC4998509DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.31.30309Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research attempts to calculate the probable economic impact of a potential West Nile virus epidemic in Belgium, targeting both humans and horses. It does this by modeling the areas at risk, estimating disease morbidity, and tallying likely costs.

Identifying Risk Areas

  • The areas of risk were identified based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the mosquito species primarily responsible for transmitting the West Nile virus.
  • The populations of horses and humans at risk were then identified based on these potential hotspots.

Morbidity Estimation

  • The researchers estimated the prevalence of different clinical forms of the disease, drawing from data on past epidemics in Europe.

Costs to the Equine Sector

  • The primary costs anticipated for the equine industry were from vaccination and the replacement value of horses that died or had to be euthanized due to the virus.
  • The paper indicates that the strategy chosen for vaccination would significantly influence costs. Vaccinating all horses in Belgium, following the worst-case scenario, could exceed EUR 30 million. By only focusing on high-risk areas, costs could be reduced to around EUR 16-17 million.

Impact on Human Health

  • For humans, where no vaccine currently exists against the West Nile virus, the researchers estimated the short-term costs and socio-economic losses resulting from patients developing the neuroinvasive form of the disease.
  • Based on their calculations, hospital bills would be the major cost implication of a human West Nile virus outbreak in Belgium. A case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease could cost about EUR 3,600, whereas a case of acute flaccid paralysis could cost around EUR 4,500.

Overall, the study suggests that preparedness, through strategic vaccination and other preventative measures, could potentially save millions of Euros in the event of a West Nile virus epidemic in Belgium.

Cite This Article

APA
Humblet MF, Vandeputte S, Fecher-Bourgeois F, Léonard P, Gosset C, Balenghien T, Durand B, Saegerman C. (2016). Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium. Euro Surveill, 21(31). https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.31.30309

Publication

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
ISSN: 1560-7917
NlmUniqueID: 100887452
Country: Sweden
Language: English
Volume: 21
Issue: 31

Researcher Affiliations

Humblet, Marie-France
  • University of Liege, Liege, Belgium.
Vandeputte, Sébastien
    Fecher-Bourgeois, Fabienne
      Léonard, Philippe
        Gosset, Christiane
          Balenghien, Thomas
            Durand, Benoît
              Saegerman, Claude

                MeSH Terms

                • Animal Husbandry / economics
                • Animals
                • Belgium / epidemiology
                • Culex / virology
                • Disease Outbreaks / economics
                • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
                • Epidemics
                • Female
                • Horse Diseases / economics
                • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
                • Horse Diseases / virology
                • Horses
                • Humans
                • Male
                • Prospective Studies
                • Vaccination / economics
                • West Nile Fever / economics
                • West Nile Fever / epidemiology
                • West Nile Fever / veterinary
                • West Nile virus / isolation & purification

                Conflict of Interest Statement

                Conflicts of Interest: None declared.

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