Identifying equine premises at high risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases using geo-statistical and space-time analyses.

This research investigated high-risk locations and times for the introduction of vector-borne diseases in horses using geographical and temporal analysis. An interdisciplinary method was used to track the risk of introducing the African horse sickness virus in the Castile and Leon region of Spain.

Research Objectives

• The study aimed to identify premises that may significantly aid in the introduction or spread of animal diseases to inform the creation of risk-based surveillance and control programs.
• The researchers used geo-statistical and cluster analysis to extract patterns and identify areas of highest risk.

Methods

• The abundance of Culicoides spp., vectors for the African horse sickness virus, and the frequency of equine introductions from regions outside Castile and Leon in Spain were regarded as facilitators of risk.
• These factors were examined over different geographical areas and periods to identify when and where risk was highest.

Findings

• The research found that the largest abundance of Culicoides spp. occurred between May and September in the northern region of Castile and Leon in Spain.
• Further, six significant space-time clusters of equine premises with the presence of Culicoides spp. and live equidae species introduced from outside the region were identified. These clusters were found to have taken place between April and December.
• Approximately 37 equine premises were included in these identified clusters.

Implications and Applications

• The research highlights periods and regions at high risk of disease spread, which could be instrumental in updating plans for preventing the introduction and spread of the African horse sickness virus.
• The methodological approach, combining geo-statistical and cluster analyses, is flexible enough to be adapted and applied to designing and implementing risk-based surveillance and control programs in Spain and other European countries.

By identifying high-risk locations and times for disease introduction, authorities can better concentrate resources and put prevention measures in place proactively, helping to curb the spread of disease.