Investigating the epidemiology of EI epidemic spread in the Province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan in 2015-16.

The research article investigates the risk factors associated with the spread of Equine Influenza (EI) in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan during 2015-2016. It found that high equine density and a lack of vaccination were key contributors to the disease spread, and highlights the need for improved biosecurity and management practices, as well as increased awareness and vaccination efforts.

Research Methodology

• The researchers conducted a 1:1 matched case control study from 2015 to 2016. This involved matching 197 laboratory confirmed cases of EI with negative controls based on geography, time of sampling, species and age. The aim was to identify risk factors associated with the epidemics in horses and other equids in Pakistan.
• The data was collected through face-to-face interviews using a piloted questionnaire. The questions captured important variables that could potentially influence the spread of EI.
• The data collected from these interviews was then analysed using conditional logistic regression. This statistical analysis enabled the researchers to identify which factors were significantly associated with EI.

Results and Findings

• Of the 23 variables probed, 16 were identified as risk factors in the univariable conditional logistic regression analysis. These risk factors were primarily related to biosecurity and management.
• The index-case investigation revealed that the infected cases were mostly animals imported from Afghanistan, suggesting cross-border transmission of the disease.
• Notably, the risk of EI doubled when manure was removed monthly compared to when it was removed daily.
• Furthermore, the spread of the disease was facilitated by a high density of equines, and a lack of vaccination played a significant role in enhancing vulnerability to the disease.

Implications and Recommendations

• The results revealed that low awareness levels regarding EI among respondents is a significant issue. This suggests the need for improved education and awareness raising campaigns about the disease.
• The study proposes that adopting protective biosecurity practices and increasing the rate of vaccination can help reduce the spread and future outbreaks of EI in Pakistan.
• Additionally, controlling the identified risk factors is crucial to effectively manage and prevent the spread of EI.