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Home / Equine Research Bank / Front Vet Sci / Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and...
Frontiers in veterinary science2022; 9; 963758; doi: 10.3389/fvets.2022.963758

Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management.

Abstract: Increasing globalization and international trade contribute to rapid expansion of animal and human diseases. Hence, preparedness is warranted to prevent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases or detect outbreaks in an early stage. We developed a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to inform risk managers on the incursion risk of multiple livestock diseases, about the main sources for incursion and the change of risk over time. RRAT was built as a relational database to link data on disease outbreaks worldwide, on introduction routes and on disease-specific parameters. The tool was parameterized to assess the incursion risk of 10 livestock diseases for the Netherlands by three introduction routes: legal trade in live animals, legal trade of animal products, and animal products illegally carried by air travelers. RRAT calculates a semi-quantitative risk score for the incursion risk of each disease, the results of which allow for prioritization. Results based on the years 2016-2018 indicated that the legal introduction routes had the highest incursion risk for bovine tuberculosis, whereas the illegal route posed the highest risk for classical swine fever. The overall incursion risk the illegal route was lower than the legal routes. The incursion risk of African swine fever increased over the period considered, whereas the risk of equine infectious anemia decreased. The variation in the incursion risk over time illustrates the need to update the risk estimates on a regular basis. RRAT has been designed such that the risk assessment can be automatically updated when new data becomes available. For diseases with high-risk scores, model results can be analyzed in more detail to see which countries and trade flows contribute most to the risk, the results of which can be used to design risk-based surveillance. RRAT thus provides a multitude of information to evaluate the incursion risk of livestock diseases at different levels of detail. To give risk managers access to all results of RRAT, an online visualization tool was built.
Copyright © 2022 de Vos, Petie, van Klink and Swanenburg.
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Publication Date: 2022-09-07 PubMed ID: 36157188PubMed Central: PMC9490411DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2022.963758Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research paper is about the development and utilization of a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) designed to help risk managers understand the dangers of livestock disease incursion and its variations over time.

Development of the RRAT

  • The rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) was created in response to the expanding threat of animal and human disease due to increased globalization and trade.
  • RRAT was constructed as a relational database, linking data on global disease outbreaks, disease-specific parameters, and introduction routes. Its purpose is to inform risk managers about potential incursion sources and changes in risk over time.
  • The tool was parameterized to assess the incursion risk of 10 livestock diseases in the Netherlands. The evaluation of threats was based on three potential introduction routes—legal trade in live animals, legal trade of animal products, and animal products brought in illegally by air travelers.

Using RRAT for Disease Risk Assessment

  • The RRAT computes a semi-quantitative risk score for the incursion risk of each disease. This data can be used to identify and rank diseases by threat level.
  • For instance, based on data from 2016-2018, the RRAT indicated that bovine tuberculosis showed the highest incursion risk via legal trade routes, whereas classical swine fever presented the highest risk via illegal routes of introduction.
  • The tool showed that the overall risk associated with illegal routes of introduction was less than that linked to legal avenues.

Using RRAT for Trend Analysis

  • The RRAT isn’t just a snapshot tool—it also tracks changes in risk over time. For example, it found that the risk of African swine fever increased over the assessed period, while the incursion risk of equine infectious anemia declined.
  • The consistent variation in incursion risks over time points to the necessity of recalibrating risk estimates on a regular basis. To this end, the RRAT has been designed to allow automatic updates as new data becomes available.

Advanced Features of the RRAT

  • High-risk scores can trigger a detailed analysis within the RRAT, revealing which countries and trade flows contribute most to the risk. This data can be valuable in sculpting effective, risk-based surveillance strategies.
  • The RRAT produces reports at multiple detail levels, providing a variety of perspectives on the incursion risk of different livestock diseases.
  • An online visualization tool was developed to provide risk managers with easy access to all results from the RRAT. This further enhances its value as a comprehensive risk management tool.

Cite This Article

APA
de Vos CJ, Petie R, van Klink EGM, Swanenburg M. (2022). Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management. Front Vet Sci, 9, 963758. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.963758

Publication

Frontiers in veterinary science
ISSN: 2297-1769
NlmUniqueID: 101666658
Country: Switzerland
Language: English
Volume: 9
Pages: 963758
PII: 963758

Researcher Affiliations

de Vos, Clazien J
  • Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, Netherlands.
Petie, Ronald
  • Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, Netherlands.
van Klink, Ed G M
  • Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, Netherlands.
Swanenburg, Manon
  • Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, Netherlands.

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

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