Riders’ prediction of results at Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance rides and sources of bias in questionnaires completed by riders.

The research article focuses on the prediction abilities of riders at Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance rides and assesses the possible biases in questionnaires filled out by riders.

Explanation of the Research

• The objective of the study was to evaluate the correlation between information provided by riders at FEI endurance rides and the actual outcomes of the ride. Additionally, it sought to determine if biases existed in the data provided by riders in pre- and post-ride questionnaires.
• Data for the study was collected from the official website of FEI and self-filled questionnaires by riders before and after the ride during 20 FEI endurance rides in 2011 and 2012. The reliability of the FEI website and questionnaire data was assessed through Kappa statistics and Mann-Whitney U-tests.
• The likelihood of riders successfully completing the ride according to their predictions, and potential biases in their responses, was analyzed using logistic regression models.

Findings of the Study

• The research found excellent agreement between the data provided by the riders and FEI on most aspects, except for breed information.
• The average speed predicted by the riders and the official results showed a moderate level of agreement.
• Riders aiming for training or qualification were found to be less likely to complete the ride compared to those aiming to compete or achieve the best possible results.
• The study noted specific factors that increased the likelihood of completing the questionnaires: female riders, participants in a young rider class, older riders, riders competing in shorter distances, and riders who had previously completed the distance of the study ride more than three times.

Implications and Conclusions

• The predictions made by some riders were significantly associated with the actual outcome of the ride.
• The researchers concluded that a larger study is necessary to further examine these variables as risk factors for elimination.
• The study also revealed biases in rider responses and challenges in data collection which could be valuable in designing future related research studies.