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Home / Equine Research Bank / Prev Vet Med / The equine influenza epidemic in Australia: spatial and temp...
Preventive veterinary medicine2009; 92(1-2); 60-70; doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.08.006

The equine influenza epidemic in Australia: spatial and temporal descriptive analyses of a large propagating epidemic.

Abstract: Australia experienced a large outbreak of equine influenza in August 2007. Nearly 10000 premises were infected during the epidemic. We used spatial and temporal analytical techniques to describe the epidemic, to quantify important descriptors of the epidemic, and to generate hypotheses about how the epidemic progressed and which control tools assisted in eradication. Spatio-temporal epidemic curves revealed three phases in the epidemic: dispersal, local spread and disease fade out. Spatial dispersal of infection rapidly declined immediately after national movement restrictions were introduced. The epidemic peak had passed before emergency vaccination could have induced substantial immunity in the equine population. Thirty seven clusters of epidemiologically linked premises were delineated using an interpolated surface of date of onset of clinical signs, geographic data and location of infected premises. These clusters were analysed individually to parameterise key epidemic measures: cumulative incidence, incidence rate, effective reproduction rate, nearest neighbour spread distances, epidemic length and the number of infected premises. These measures were summarised by landscape (rural versus peri-urban location) and standardised by disease management zone. Compared to rural areas, peri-urban areas appeared to have a higher density of equine premises (4.66 premises km(-2) versus 0.80 premises km(-2)), longer epidemics (95 days versus 87 days), more infected premises (393 versus 339) and a shorter spread distance (1.27 km versus 2.38 km). However, effective reproduction rates (2.04 versus 1.99), cumulative incidence (27.4 versus 26.9) and incidence rates (1.36 versus 1.54) were similar. The relative impact of vaccination and national movement restrictions in controlling this epidemic needs further investigation.
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Publication Date: 2009-09-12 PubMed ID: 19748691DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.08.006Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

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The research conducted a detailed analysis of the equine influenza outbreak in Australia in 2007, exploring its spatial and temporal progression, impact and potential control measures. The study found three phases of the epidemic – dispersion, local transmission, and fade out – and noted that national movement restrictions appeared to be effective in curbing the rapid spread of the disease.

Understanding the Epidemic

  • The researchers first illustrate the epidemic’s progression in three stages: initial dispersal, local spread, and eventual fade out. This structure lays out how the disease initially spread out quickly, went on to infect local populations, and finally began to slow and disappear.
  • The study highlights how the introduction of national movement restrictions had an immediate and significant effect in decreasing the rapid spread of the disease. This indicates that limiting the travel of possibly affected equine might have been instrumental in controlling the epidemic.

Data Collection and Analysis

  • Close to 10,000 premises affected by the epidemic were mapped using date of onset, geographic data, and locations. Through spatial and temporal analyses, the researchers were able to get a comprehensive view of the epidemic’s progression and patterns.
  • Thirty-seven clusters of linked premises were identified and analysed to parameterise key aspects of the epidemic like cumulative incidence, incidence rate, effective reproduction rate, nearest neighbour spread distances, epidemic length, and the number of infected premises.
  • Data was also segregated by landscape characteristics, comparing rural and peri-urban areas. This spatial differentiation helped in understanding how disease progression varied across different environmental contexts.

Differing Impacts in Urban and Rural Areas

  • According to the research, peri-urban areas tended to have a higher density of equine premises, longer duration of the epidemic, more number of infected premises, and reduced spread distance when compared to rural areas.
  • However, the effective reproduction rates, cumulative incidences, and incidence rates in both peri-urban and rural areas were somewhat similar. This indicates that despite the differences in geographic and environmental factors, the disease spread was fairly homogeneous in its impact on the equine population.

Control Measures and Further Investigation

  • The researchers observed that the epidemic had reached its peak before vaccination could have provided significant immunity to the equine population, implying that vaccination may not have had as significant an impact on controlling the outbreak.
  • The study recommends further research to better understand the relative impact of vaccination and movement restrictions in controlling large-scale epidemics like this one. This will aid in forming more effective strategies for outbreak control in the future.

Cite This Article

APA
Cowled B, Ward MP, Hamilton S, Garner G. (2009). The equine influenza epidemic in Australia: spatial and temporal descriptive analyses of a large propagating epidemic. Prev Vet Med, 92(1-2), 60-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.08.006

Publication

Preventive veterinary medicine
ISSN: 1873-1716
NlmUniqueID: 8217463
Country: Netherlands
Language: English
Volume: 92
Issue: 1-2
Pages: 60-70

Researcher Affiliations

Cowled, Brendan
  • Office of the Chief Veterinary Officer, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. brendan.cowled@daff.gov.au
Ward, Michael P
    Hamilton, Samuel
      Garner, Graeme

        MeSH Terms

        • Animals
        • Cluster Analysis
        • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
        • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
        • Horses
        • New South Wales / epidemiology
        • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
        • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
        • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / virology
        • Queensland / epidemiology
        • Time Factors

        Citations

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