Evaluating the effectiveness of early vaccination in the control and eradication of equine influenza–a modelling approach.
Abstract: In August 2007, Australia which had previously been free of equine influenza, experienced a large outbreak that lasted approximately 4 months before it was eradicated. The outbreak required a significant national response by government and the horse industries. The main components of the response were movement controls, biosecurity measures, risk-based zoning and, subsequently, vaccination to contain the outbreak. Although not initially used, vaccination became a key element in the eradication program, with approximately 140000 horses vaccinated. Vaccination is recognised as a valuable tool for managing EI in endemically infected countries but there is little experience using it in situations where the objective is disease eradication. Vaccination was undoubtedly an important factor in 2007 as it enabled movements of some horses and associated industry activities to recommence. However, its contribution to containment and eradication is less clear. A premises-level equine influenza model, based on an epidemiological analysis of the 2007 outbreak, was developed to evaluate effectiveness of the mitigation strategies used and to investigate whether vaccination, if applied earlier, would have had an effect on the course of the outbreak. The results indicate that early use of strategic vaccination could have significantly reduced the size of the outbreak. The four vaccination strategies evaluated had, by 1 month into the control program, reduced the number of new infections on average by 60% and the size of the infected area by 8-9%. If resources are limited, a 1 km suppressive ring vaccination around infected premises gave the best results, but with greater vaccination capacity, a 3 km ring vaccination was the most effective strategy. The findings suggest that as well as reducing clinical and economic impacts, vaccination when used with biosecurity measures and movement controls could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.
Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Publication Date: 2010-03-16 PubMed ID: 20236718DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.02.007Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary
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This study uses mathematical modelling to analyze the impact of vaccination in controlling and eradicating equine influenza during the major outbreak in Australia in 2007. The results reveal that strategic use of vaccination early on in the outbreak could have significantly reduced its size and impacts, supporting the addition of vaccination to biosecurity measures and movement controls as key strategies for managing such diseases in horses.
Model-Based Assessment of Vaccination’s Role
The researchers developed a premises-level model of equine influenza infection, based on data and conditions of the 2007 outbreak in Australia. They took into account that although vaccination was not initially incorporated, it eventually became a major component, with approximately 140000 horses being vaccinated. The purpose of the model was to:
- Assess the effectiveness of different response strategies including movement controls, biosecurity measures, risk-based zoning and vaccination
- Investigate how altering the timing of vaccination, specifically using it earlier in the outbreak, could have influenced the epidemic’s trajectory
Vaccination Impact on Outbreak Size
The study’s main finding is that strategic early use of vaccination could have significantly reduced the size of the outbreak. In particular,
- The study evaluated four vaccination strategies and found that, by 1 month into the control program, these strategies had reduced the number of new infections on average by 60% and the size of the infected area by 8-9%
- If resources are constrained, a 1 km suppressive ring vaccination around infected premises showed the best results. However, if more vaccinations are available, a 3 km ring vaccination was found to be the most effective strategy
Implications for Disease Management
Beyond the specific case of equine influenza, these findings have broader implications for managing infectious diseases in horses and potentially other animals. In particular, they underscore the importance of including vaccination as part of a comprehensive disease management program that also includes biosecurity measures and movement controls. Thus, this research could have significant implications for policy and practice in the veterinary public health sector.
Cite This Article
APA
Garner MG, Cowled B, East IJ, Moloney BJ, Kung NY.
(2010).
Evaluating the effectiveness of early vaccination in the control and eradication of equine influenza–a modelling approach.
Prev Vet Med, 99(1), 15-27.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.02.007 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Office of the Chief Veterinary Officer, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, 18 Marcus Clarke St, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. graeme.garner@daff.gov.au
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Communicable Disease Control
- Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
- Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / prevention & control
- Horses
- Influenza Vaccines / administration & dosage
- Models, Biological
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / prevention & control
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
- Transportation
- Vaccination / methods
- Vaccination / veterinary
- Veterinary Medicine / methods
Citations
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