In-Depth Analysis of the Prognostic Factors Associated with Short-Term Outcome in Equine Colic Patients: Multicentric Retrospective Study.
Abstract: Several studies investigated risk and prognostic parameters for horses with colic; however, the consensus is still debated. The present work aimed to investigate colic outcomes and to identify risk factors in horses referred for colic. In this multicenter retrospective study, 236 clinical records of equids referred for colic at three different equine centers were reviewed. The following data were collected: history, signalment, physical examination at the time of admission, hematological and biochemical analysis, diagnosis, SIRS status and 0-6 point-scale SIRS score, colic type, treatment attempted, and outcome. Descriptive statistics were performed, and distribution of continuous variables was reported as median and percentile. A multivariable logistic regression model was applied to assess parameters associated with colic outcomes in horses ( < 0.05). A total of 138/236 horses were included in the study. The univariate analysis identified as potentially associated with the outcome: sex ( = 0.046), colic type ( < 0.001), treatment type ( < 0.001), SIRS score ( = 0.049), age (-value = 0.057), heart rate ( = 0.013), and respiratory rate ( = 0.017). The logistic regression model indicated that colic type ( < 0.001) and age ( = 0.004) were significantly associated with a negative outcome. Equine colic risks are multifactorial; prognosis declines with age and strangulating obstructive non-strangulating colic. Poor outcomes link to cardiovascular signs like elevated heart rate, SIRS status and score, and blood lactate. Heterogeneity from diverse sites limits generalizability, but standardized protocols, binarized data, and a multicenter approach enhance robustness and representativeness while reducing local biases.
Publication Date: 2026-02-05 PubMed ID: 41681477PubMed Central: PMC12897340DOI: 10.3390/ani16030496Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
Summary
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In this study, researchers analyzed medical records from multiple equine centers to identify factors that predict short-term outcomes in horses suffering from colic. They found that the type of colic and the horse’s age were the strongest predictors of survival, with older horses and certain types of colic being linked to worse outcomes.
Study Objective and Design
- Investigate short-term outcomes of equine colic cases to identify key prognostic factors.
- Review and analyze clinical data retrospectively from 236 horses treated at three different equine centers.
- Utilize a multicenter approach to increase the representativeness and reduce local bias in the findings.
Data Collected
- History and signalment (age, sex, breed, etc.) of the horses.
- Physical examination findings at admission including heart rate and respiratory rate.
- Hematological and biochemical blood test results.
- Colic diagnosis type (e.g., strangulating, non-strangulating obstructive, etc.).
- Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) status and a 0-6 point SIRS scoring scale.
- Treatment type attempted (medical vs. surgical).
- Outcome measures focusing on survival or negative outcome within a short-term period.
Statistical Analysis
- Descriptive statistics used to summarize continuous variables as median and percentiles.
- Univariate analysis performed to identify potential factors linked to outcomes, including variables such as sex, colic type, treatment, SIRS score, age, heart rate, and respiratory rate.
- Multivariable logistic regression modeling used to determine independent prognostic factors significantly associated with negative outcomes (p < 0.05).
Key Findings
- Out of 236 records, 138 horses met inclusion criteria for detailed analysis.
- Univariate analysis suggested these factors were associated (or nearly associated) with outcome:
- Sex (p = 0.046)
- Colic type (p < 0.001)
- Treatment type (p < 0.001)
- SIRS score (p = 0.049)
- Age (p = 0.057)
- Heart rate (p = 0.013)
- Respiratory rate (p = 0.017)
- Multivariable analysis identified:
- Colic type as the most significant predictor of negative outcome (p < 0.001), with strangulating and obstructive colic types linked to worse prognosis.
- Age as an independent negative prognostic factor (p = 0.004), indicating older horses have poorer outcomes.
- Other clinical signs indicating poor prognosis included elevated heart rate, presence of SIRS, and elevated blood lactate.
Interpretation and Clinical Implications
- Colic in horses is a complex, multifactorial condition where certain subtypes, especially strangulating intestinal lesions, carry higher risk of mortality.
- Age plays a critical role; older horses demonstrate reduced ability to survive acute colic episodes.
- Vital signs and inflammatory status provide valuable prognostic clues to guide clinical decision-making.
- Early identification of high-risk cases can influence treatment approaches and owner counseling.
Strengths and Limitations
- Strengths:
- Multicenter study design increases generalizability across different veterinary settings.
- Use of standardized protocols and binary data formats enhances consistency of data analysis.
- Combination of clinical, laboratory, and treatment data offers a comprehensive evaluation of risk factors.
- Limitations:
- Heterogeneity of cases and treatment approaches across centers can affect the uniformity of results.
- Retrospective nature limits control over data completeness and potential confounding factors.
- Some variables showed borderline statistical significance and may require further prospective validation.
Conclusion
- This study reinforces the importance of colic type and age as crucial determinants of short-term survival in horses with colic.
- Clinical parameters reflecting cardiovascular compromise and systemic inflammation also contribute to prognosis.
- These findings support more tailored clinical assessments and may lead to improved outcome predictions and management strategies for equine colic patients.
Cite This Article
APA
Nocera I, Cingottini D, Di Franco C, Sala G, Bindi F, Spadari A, Rinnovati R, Vitale V, Jose-Cunilleras E, Sgorbini M.
(2026).
In-Depth Analysis of the Prognostic Factors Associated with Short-Term Outcome in Equine Colic Patients: Multicentric Retrospective Study.
Animals (Basel), 16(3), 496.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ani16030496 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Department of Veterinary Science, University of Pisa, Viale delle Piagge 2, 56122 Pisa, Italy.
- Department of Veterinary Science, University of Pisa, Viale delle Piagge 2, 56122 Pisa, Italy.
- Department of Veterinary Science, University of Pisa, Viale delle Piagge 2, 56122 Pisa, Italy.
- Department of Veterinary Science, University of Pisa, Viale delle Piagge 2, 56122 Pisa, Italy.
- Department of Veterinary Science, University of Pisa, Viale delle Piagge 2, 56122 Pisa, Italy.
- Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40064 Bologna, Italy.
- Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40064 Bologna, Italy.
- Department Animal Medicine and Surgery, Universidad CEU-Cardenal Herrera, CEU Universities, 46115 Alfara del Patriarca, Spain.
- Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Facultat de Veterinària, Travessera dels Turons s/n, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain.
- Department of Veterinary Science, University of Pisa, Viale delle Piagge 2, 56122 Pisa, Italy.
Conflict of Interest Statement
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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