Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza.
Abstract: A stochastic model of equine influenza (EI) is constructed to assess the risk of an outbreak in a Thoroughbred population at a typical flat race training yard. The model is parameterised using data from equine challenge experiments conducted by the Animal Health Trust (relating to the latent and infectious period of animals) and also published data on previous epidemics (to estimate the transmission rate for equine influenza). Using 89 ponies, an empirical relationship between pre-challenge antibody and the probability of becoming infectious is established using logistic regression. Changes in antibody level over time are quantified using published and unpublished studies comprising 618 ponies and horses. A plausible Thoroughbred population is examined over the course of a year and the model is used to assess the risk of an outbreak of EI in the yard under the current minimum vaccination policy in the UK. The model is adapted to consider an alternative vaccination programme where the frequency of vaccination in older horses (2-year-olds and upwards) is increased. Model results show that this practical alternative would offer a significant increase in protection. Spread of infection between yards is also considered to ascertain the risk of secondary outbreaks.
Publication Date: 2003-06-12 PubMed ID: 12798628DOI: 10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00156-7Google Scholar: Lookup
The Equine Research Bank provides access to a large database of publicly available scientific literature. Inclusion in the Research Bank does not imply endorsement of study methods or findings by Mad Barn.
- Comparative Study
- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.
This study investigates the potential impact of altering vaccination strategies for equine influenza in Thoroughbred racehorses. The researchers used a complex mathematical model and real-world data to suggest that increasing the frequency of vaccination in older horses could significantly reduce the risk of an outbreak.
Creation of the Stochastic Model
- The research team used a stochastic model, a kind of mathematical equation that includes random variables, to simulate the spread of equine influenza in a hypothetical Thoroughbred training yard.
- The model incorporated information about the duration of the latent (non-infectious) and infectious periods of the disease, derived from experiments carried out by the Animal Health Trust.
- Data from previous equine influenza epidemics were also included to estimate the rate at which the disease might spread among horses.
Establishing a Relationship Between Antibodies and Infection Probability
- The team worked with 89 ponies to establish a relationship between the level of antibodies (which fight disease) in the horses’ systems prior to exposure to the flu virus and the likelihood of the horses becoming infectious.
- To accomplish this, the researchers used a statistical method called logistic regression, which can describe and test relationships between a binary outcome (in this case, becoming infectious or not) and one or more predictive variables (in this case, pre-challenge antibody level).
Assessing the Risk of an Equine Influenza Outbreak Under Current Vaccination Policies
- Using this model, the researchers studied a plausible Thoroughbred population over a year to assess the risk of an equine influenza outbreak under the current minimum vaccination policy in the UK.
- The team also examined changes in antibody level over time, incorporating data from both published and unpublished studies including 618 ponies and horses.
Assessment of Alternative Vaccination Strategy
- The model was then adapted to consider a different vaccination programme, in which older horses (aged two years and upward) would receive vaccinations more frequently.
- The modified model showed that this alternative approach could significantly increase the protection against equine influenza among the population of racehorses studied.
Assessment of Secondary Outbreak Risks
- The team also evaluated the potential for the disease to spread from one yard to another, aiming to determine the risk of secondary outbreaks.
Cite This Article
APA
Park AW, Wood JL, Newton JR, Daly J, Mumford JA, Grenfell BT.
(2003).
Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza.
Vaccine, 21(21-22), 2862-2870.
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00156-7 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket, Suffolk CB8 7UU, UK. awp@zoo.cam.ac.uk
MeSH Terms
- Age Factors
- Animals
- Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / prevention & control
- Horse Diseases / transmission
- Horses
- Influenza Vaccines / administration & dosage
- Influenza Vaccines / immunology
- Models, Biological
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / immunology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
- Physical Conditioning, Animal
- Time Factors
- Vaccination / veterinary
Citations
This article has been cited 11 times.- Entenfellner J, Gahan J, Garvey M, Walsh C, Venner M, Cullinane A. Response of Sport Horses to Different Formulations of Equine Influenza Vaccine. Vaccines (Basel) 2020 Jul 10;8(3).
- Milwid RM, O'Sullivan TL, Poljak Z, Laskowski M, Greer AL. Comparing the effects of non-homogenous mixing patterns on epidemiological outcomes in equine populations: A mathematical modelling study. Sci Rep 2019 Mar 1;9(1):3227.
- Singh RK, Dhama K, Karthik K, Khandia R, Munjal A, Khurana SK, Chakraborty S, Malik YS, Virmani N, Singh R, Tripathi BN, Munir M, van der Kolk JH. A Comprehensive Review on Equine Influenza Virus: Etiology, Epidemiology, Pathobiology, Advances in Developing Diagnostics, Vaccines, and Control Strategies. Front Microbiol 2018;9:1941.
- Spence KL, O'Sullivan TL, Poljak Z, Greer AL. Using a computer simulation model to examine the impact of biosecurity measures during a facility-level outbreak of equine influenza. Can J Vet Res 2018 Apr;82(2):89-96.
- Gildea S, Garvey M, Lyons P, Lyons R, Gahan J, Walsh C, Cullinane A. Multifocal Equine Influenza Outbreak with Vaccination Breakdown in Thoroughbred Racehorses. Pathogens 2018 Apr 17;7(2).
- Sugita S, Oki H, Hasegawa T, Ishida N. Estimation models for the morbidity of the horses infected with equine influenza virus. J Equine Sci 2008;19(3):63-6.
- Daly JM, Newton JR, Wood JL, Park AW. What can mathematical models bring to the control of equine influenza?. Equine Vet J 2013 Nov;45(6):784-8.
- Baguelin M, Newton JR, Demiris N, Daly J, Mumford JA, Wood JL. Control of equine influenza: scenario testing using a realistic metapopulation model of spread. J R Soc Interface 2010 Jan 6;7(42):67-79.
- Chambers TM, Quinlivan M, Sturgill T, Cullinane A, Horohov DW, Zamarin D, Arkins S, García-Sastre A, Palese P. Influenza A viruses with truncated NS1 as modified live virus vaccines: pilot studies of safety and efficacy in horses. Equine Vet J 2009 Jan;41(1):87-92.
- Park AW, Wood JL, Daly JM, Newton JR, Glass K, Henley W, Mumford JA, Grenfell BT. The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Proc Biol Sci 2004 Aug 7;271(1548):1547-55.
- Chambers TM. Equine Influenza. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Med 2022 Jan 4;12(1).
Use Nutrition Calculator
Check if your horse's diet meets their nutrition requirements with our easy-to-use tool Check your horse's diet with our easy-to-use tool
Talk to a Nutritionist
Discuss your horse's feeding plan with our experts over a free phone consultation Discuss your horse's diet over a phone consultation
Submit Diet Evaluation
Get a customized feeding plan for your horse formulated by our equine nutritionists Get a custom feeding plan formulated by our nutritionists
