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Topic:Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian analysis is a statistical method that applies Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. In equine research, Bayesian analysis can be used to interpret data and make probabilistic inferences about various aspects of horse health, behavior, and performance. This approach allows researchers to incorporate prior knowledge or expert opinion into the analysis, providing a flexible framework for dealing with complex datasets and uncertainty. Applications of Bayesian analysis in equine studies may include genetic evaluations, disease prevalence estimation, and performance prediction. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the application, methodology, and outcomes of Bayesian analysis in the context of equine science.
Natural eggshell membrane supplementation for chronic lameness in warmblood horses: a 12-week prospective before-after study. Osteoarthritis is a leading cause of equine lameness, yet pragmatic evidence for nutraceuticals in horses remains limited. Unassigned: We prospectively evaluated 12 weeks of daily natural eggshell membrane (NEM; 12 mg/kg, orally) supplementation in Warmblood horses with chronic lameness using a single-arm before-after design. Ten horses were enrolled and prespecified paired contrasts compared visit 3 (V3, week 12) with baseline (V1). Outcomes included rider-reported under-saddle function (walk and trot), examiner-graded lameness (rest and walk-trot composite), simple joint-angle kinematics...
Short- and Long-Term Outcomes in Horses Following Laparoscopic Nephrosplenic Space Ablation. Left dorsal displacement of the large colon (LDDLC) is a common cause of colic in horses and it is frequently associated with recurrent episodes, with significant implications for horse management, athletic performance, and owner satisfaction. Laparoscopic nephrosplenic space (NSS) ablation is a preventive surgical technique aimed at reducing recurrence in horses with a history of medically or surgically treated LDDLC. This retrospective study evaluated 48 horses that underwent laparoscopic NSS ablation in two Italian Veterinary Teaching Hospitals between 2016 and 2024. Short-term outcomes, in...
Sex-Related Differences in Show-Jumping Performance of Retired Thoroughbred Racehorses in Relation to the Interval Since Race Retirement. To investigate the factors affecting the utilization of retired Thoroughbred racehorses in equestrian disciplines, Bayesian linear mixed models were separately fitted using rank, round time, and obstacle faults from show-jumping competitions restricted to retired Thoroughbred racehorses as dependent variables, with the interaction between horse sex and the interval from race retirement to competition (as a proxy for transition training to show-jumping) as a fixed effect. When the interval was short (≤1 year), the estimated marginal mean of rank was statistically significantly lower in stalli...
Molecular characterization and phylogeography of equine influenza virus H3N8 detected in donkeys in Nigeria 2022-2023. Equine influenza virus (EIV) H3N8 is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that poses significant health and economic risks to equids globally. In southeastern Nigeria where equids are sold and slaughtered, limited data exist on EIV epidemiology and circulating lineages. Methods: To address this gap, an active surveillance was conducted between January 2022 and October 2023. A total of 400 nasal swabs were collected from horses and donkeys at slaughterhouses and animal markets. The swabs were screened for equine influenza virus (EIV) using quantitative Reverse-Transcription Polymerase Chain...
Genetic parameter estimates of performance traits in Iranian Thoroughbred race horses using a Bayesian approach. Race performance in Thoroughbred horses is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Understanding their genetic architecture is essential for designing effective breeding programs. Objective: This study aimed to estimate genetic parameters and trends for key performance traits in Iranian Thoroughbred racehorses. Methods: Performance data, including race completion time (RCT), rank at the end of the competition (REC), and average speed (AS), were obtained from the Iranian Equestrian Federation (2002-2021). Pedigree data from 14,391 individuals were analyzed using CFC software. Gene...
A Meta-Analysis of International Flunixin Pharmacokinetics in Horses: Toward Regulatory Harmonization and Individualized Detection Times Using Bayesian Paradigm. Flunixin meglumine is widely used to manage pain and inflammation in horses, and its regulation requires robust pharmacokinetic analysis for harmonization. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis of flunixin disposition using plasma and urine concentration data from 65 horses across four countries to robustly estimate pharmacokinetic parameters in setting screening limits (SLs) for controlling medications in horses. A population (POP) model was developed using nonlinear mixed-effects model analysis. The irrelevant plasma concentration (IPC) and irrelevant urine concentration (IUC) were det...
Genetic inbreeding depression load for conformation defects and dressage traits in the Pura Raza Española horse. Investigate the genetic inbreeding depression load (IDL) on two dressage traits and two conformational defects in horses. Unassigned: The dataset included performance records for Walk and Points per Reprise (PPR) (N:43,838) and conformation data for Closed and Convergent hocks (N:57,949). Pedigree information spanned over 400,000 individuals. Inbreeding coefficients (F, F6, Fk) and partial inbreeding coefficient (Fij) were computed to quantify the IDL using Bayesian approach. Linear and ordinal logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between inbreeding and phenotypic values. ...
Evaluating efficacy and strongyle egg reappearance period after ivermectin treatment in a Hungarian stud farm. Horses remain globally at constant risk of strongylid infections, with cyathostomins being particularly prevalent and abundant. It is essential to routinely monitor the efficacy of anthelmintics against equine nematodes. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of ivermectin against equine strongyles and estimate the strongyle egg reappearance period (ERP) following ivermectin treatment for the first time in Hungary. Fecal samples were collected from 57 Thoroughbred mares before treatment and at 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 weeks post-treatment at a Hungarian National Stud Farm. Fecal egg counts (FECs)...
Population Structure and Genetic Diversity Among Shagya Arabian Horse Genealogical Lineages in Bulgaria Based on Microsatellite Genotyping. The Shagya Arabian horse breed was created to address the need of Imperial Hussars (Hungarian light horsemen) for a horse with the intelligence, essential characteristics, and endurance of the Arabian breed, but also of a bigger size and having a better weight-carrying capacity and jumping ability. The present study aimed to explore the genetic variability and population structure of the uninvestigated Shagya Arabian horse population in Bulgaria based on genotyping at 15 equine microsatellite markers. A total of 140 horses belonging to six genealogical lines (Dahoman, Gazal, Ibrahim, Kuhailan ...
Tracing the 2021 equine influenza Outbreak: First characterization and phylogeographic analysis of H3N8 Florida clade 1 virus in Tunisia. Equine influenza (EI) is a highly contagious viral respiratory disease affecting equids, with the potential of causing widespread outbreaks across Europe, the Americas, Asia, and other regions of the world. In Tunisia, in the spring of 2021, an EI virus outbreak occurred in a farm housing purebred Arabian horses that exhibited respiratory signs. This outbreak led to a national lockdown on horse movements and the cancellation of equestrian events. A total of 432 serum samples, collected from 2018 to 2021, were tested using ELISA competition assay. In addition, 100 Nasal swabs were collected dur...
Seroprevalence of equine leptospirosis in Poland (2019-2023). Leptospirosis in horses is associated with various clinical signs, potentially leading to fatal outcomes. Additionally, the disease may pose a zoonotic risk to individuals involved in handling infected animals. Implementing a serological monitoring programme in the equine population is one of the key tools used to reduce the risk of transmission of Leptospira infections to humans. Objective: To provide new insights into the seroprevalence of leptospirosis in domestic horses in Poland. Methods: Serological monitoring program. Methods: Data were collected from serological surveys of horse serum ...
Unwelcome neighbours: Tracking the transmission of Streptococcus equi in the United Kingdom horse population. Strangles (Streptococcus equi infection) remains endemic in the UK, with ~300 laboratory diagnoses annually. Sub-clinically infected long-term carriers are considered a key driver of endemicity. Analysing genomes of circulating strains could provide valuable transmission insights of this pathogen. Objective: To determine the population structure and diversity of UK S. equi isolates and to model transmission using epidemiological and whole genome sequencing data. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional epidemiological and genomic surveillance. Methods: A dated phylogenetic tree derived from 511...
The first mitogenome of Petrovinema skrjabini from Equus ferus przewalskii: a phylogenetic analysis within the Strongylidae family. Petrovinema skrjabini (Nematoda: Strongylidae, Cyathostominae) is a parasitic nematode colonizing the cecum and colon of equids. Like other cyathostomins, its larvae (L3) invade the intestinal mucosa, forming encysted nodules that may remain dormant for years. Mass larval emergence triggers larval cyathostominosis-a severe syndrome characterized by hemorrhagic typhlocolitis and diarrhea, with mortality rates exceeding 50%. However, owing to the morphological indistinguishability of cyathostomin and frequent mixed infections in natural settings, species-specific contributions to pathogenesis re...
Comparative Evaluation of a Multistrain Indirect ELISA Targeting Anti- p26 and gp45 Antibodies for EIAV Detection. Equine Infectious Anemia Virus (EIAV), a lentivirus marked by considerable genetic variability, poses significant diagnostic challenges. Existing diagnostic tools encompass the Agar Gel Immunodiffusion Assay (AGID), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and Western blotting (WB). ELISA and AGID mainly utilize the p26 capsid protein, often sourced from the Wyoming reference strain. To broaden the range of viral proteins and strains employed in these immunoassays, we previously developed a novel p26/double-strain gp45 indirect ELISA. In this study, we evaluated the performance of this ELISA...
An application of the MR-Horse method to reduce selection bias in genome-wide association studies of disease progression. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of disease progression are vulnerable to collider bias caused by selection of participants with disease at study entry. This bias introduces spurious associations between disease progression and genetic variants that are truly only associated with disease incidence. Methods of statistical adjustment to reduce this bias have been published, but rely on assumptions regarding the genetic correlation of disease incidence and disease progression which are likely to be violated in many human diseases. MR-Horse is a recently published Bayesian method to estimate...
A profiling of faecal parasites in horses in Mauritius and resistance to Fenbendazole at one horse-riding stable. Mauritius hosts a population of approximately 900 equids, but no investigations have delved into issues such as the prevalence of equine helminths, anthelmintic usage, and resistance emergence. This study aimed to devise a qualitative and quantitative profile of common helminthic intestinal parasites in equines at eight out of twenty-eight stables (272 horses, 29 % of local population) and to determine whether helminthic intestinal parasites in equines at one stable have developed resistance to Fenbendazole by quantitatively assessing pre-treatment faecal egg counts, post-treatment faecal egg...
Identification of Genetic Relationships and Group Structure Analysis of Yanqi Horses. The Yanqi horse is a distinguished local breed in China, known for its robust physique and strong adaptability. However, due to insufficient breeding populations and a loosely structured breeding system, the number of Yanqi horses has been declining annually. To protect its genetic resources and develop scientific breeding strategies, this study aimed to analyze the genetic diversity, parentage relationships, and genetic structure of the Yanqi horse conservation population using microsatellite markers. A total of 117 Yanqi horses were selected for genotyping analysis using 16 microsatellite ...
Bayesian Recursive and Structural Equation Models to Infer Causal Links Among Gait Visual Scores on Campolina Horses. Gait visual scores are widely applied to horse breeding because they are a fast and easy phenotyping strategy, allowing the numeric interpretation of a complex biological process such as gait quality. However, they may suffer from subjectivity or high environmental influence. We aimed to investigate potential causal relationships among six visual gait scores in Campolina horses. The data included 5475 horses with records for at least one of the following traits: Dissociation (Di), Comfort (C), Style (S), Regularity (R), Development (De), and Gait total Scores (GtS). The pedigree comprised thre...
Genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationships of Theileria equi inferred from heat shock protein 70 kDa gene sequences in Brazilian horses. Equine piroplasmosis, a tick-borne disease caused by hemoparasites of the Babesia and Theileria genera, has significant clinical and economic impacts worldwide. This study aims to characterize the heat shock protein 70 kDa (hsp70) gene sequences of Theileria equi from naturally infected horses across the five geographic regions in Brazil, and to analyze the phylogenetic relationships between T. equi and other parasites within the order Piroplasmida. Primers specific to T. equi were designed through in silico analysis of hsp70 gene sequences available in GenBank. Forty samples of equine whole ...
Influence of Sires on Population Substructure in Dülmen Wild Horses. The objectives of the present study were to analyze the influence of the stallions employed in the Dülmen wild horses on the genetic diversity and population substructure using Bayesian cluster analysis. The Dülmen wild horse is maintained as a unique horse population exposed to the natural conditions all year round in the Merfelder Bruch near Dülmen in Westphalia, Germany. Stallions selected for breeding have to prove their abilities to survive under this harsh environment. We used multilocus genotypic information from a set of 29 autosomal microsatellites to determine the paternity of 185...
Bayesian Individual Limits for IGF-1 Monitoring in Equine Plasma: Implementation in the Equine Biological Passport. Despite the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) regulation associated with heavy sanctions, the abuse of prohibited substances must be identified and deterred throughout horses' athletic careers, such as the administration of recombinant growth hormone (rGH). GH is naturally produced in mammal organisms to stimulate growth. Thus, rGH administration can enhance the performance of horses by expanding some physical abilities. As measuring endogenous GH levels is complex, an indirect strategy is to monitor GH-associated biomarkers in plasma as insulin-like growth factor 1 (I...
Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Dülmen Wild, Liebenthal and Polish Konik Horses in Comparison with Przewalski, Sorraia, German Draught and Riding Horses. The objective of the present study was to analyze the genetic diversity, individual-based assessment of population structure, and admixture in the Dülmen wild horse population in comparison to warmblood, coldblood, and primitive horse populations. The Dülmen wild horse is kept as a unique horse population in the Merfelder Bruch near Dülmen in Westphalia, Germany, and since 1856 has been managed by the Dukes of Croÿ. The Dülmen wild horse population is exposed to the natural conditions of the Merfelder Bruch all year round without human interventions for feeding and veterinary care. In the...
Methodological approaches to assessing the genetic predisposition of osteochondrosis of the tarsocrural joint in the Pura Raza Española horses. Osteochondrosis (OC) is a developmental orthopaedic disease of significant concern in numerous sport horse breeds, with significant international relevance. Using digital radiographs, we assessed the occurrence of hock (tarsocrural joint) OC in 3 048 Pura Raza Española (PRE) horses which took part in a morpho-functional test, in three specific locations in the tarsus limbs: the Distal Intermediate Ridge of the Tibia (DIRT), the lateral trochlear ridges of the talus (LTT), and the medial trochlear ridges of the talus (MTT). An incidence rate of 13.3% was found for hock OC in the analysed samp...
Genetic analysis based on next generation sequencing of Streptococcus equi subsp. equi isolated from horses imported into Japan. Strangles is a globally widespread, commonly diagnosed and important infectious disease of equids caused by Streptococcus equi subsp. equi. We performed whole genome sequencing of 19 S. equi isolates collected from imported horses at the Japanese border. Of these isolates, 15 isolates were obtained from clinical cases and 4 were from subclinical cases. The 19 isolates were grouped into 3 Bayesian analysis of population structure (BAPS) groups by the core genome single nucleotide polymorphism analysis corresponding to exporting country, SeM typing, or exporter of the horses. The 19 isolates pos...
The first report of triple anthelmintic resistance on a French Thoroughbred stud farm. This study assessed the anthelmintic resistance in strongylid nematodes against commonly used anthelmintic (AH) drugs in a French galloping racehorse stud farm from March to December 2023. Faecal egg count reduction tests (FECRTs) were conducted in three different groups of Thoroughbred yearlings (a group of 6 males, a group of 13 females and a group of 8 females and 3 males) following the new World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) guidelines. The efficacy of fenbendazole was tested in two groups once during the monitoring period (in March), the efficacy of iv...
Equine herpesvirus 4 infected domestic horses associated with Sintashta spoke-wheeled chariots around 4,000 years ago. Equine viral outbreaks have disrupted the socio-economic life of past human societies up until the late 19th century and continue to be of major concern to the horse industry today. With a seroprevalence of 60-80 per cent, equine herpesvirus 4 (EHV-4) is the most common horse pathogen on the planet. Yet, its evolutionary history remains understudied. Here, we screen the sequenced data of 264 archaeological horse remains to detect the presence of EHV-4. We recover the first ancient EHV-4 genome with 4.2× average depth-of-coverage from a specimen excavated in the Southeastern Urals and dated ...
A national survey of anthelmintic resistance in ascarid and strongylid nematodes in Australian Thoroughbred horses. This study quantified the extent of anthelmintic resistance (AR) in ascarid and strongylid nematodes against commonly used anthelmintics in Australian Thoroughbred horses. Faecal egg count reduction tests (FECRTs, n = 86) and egg reappearance period (ERP) tests were conducted on 22 farms across Australia. Faecal egg counts (FECs) were determined using the modified McMaster technique, and percent faecal egg count reduction (%FECR) was calculated using the Bayesian hierarchical model and hybrid Frequentist/Bayesian analysis method. The results were interpreted using old (published in 1992) and...
Evaluation of field-testing protocols to diagnose insulin dysregulation in ponies using a Bayesian approach. Field tests and their association with laminitis have not been evaluated in large cohorts. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of basal insulin (BI), the oral sugar test (OST) and the insulin tolerance test (ITT) to diagnose ID and investigate their association with laminitis. Insulin dysregulation status was determined in 146 ponies using BI (insulin concentration >20 µIU/mL), an OST (insulin concentration >65 µIU/mL at 60 or 90min after oral administration of 0.45mL/kg corn syrup) and an ITT (< 50% reduction in glucose concentration 30min after intravenous adminis...
Exposure levels of animal allergens, endotoxin, and β-(1,3)-glucan on a university campus of veterinary medicine. The study aimed to determine the allergen, endotoxin and β-(1,3)-glucan concentrations at various areas on a university campus of veterinary medicine. Methods: Dust samples were collected four times a year for three years using electrostatic dust collectors (EDC) at 25 different locations on a campus of veterinary medicine and in laboratories of inorganic chemistry as a control area representing animal-free environment. Major animal allergens from dog, cat, horse, cattle and mouse, domestic mite (DM) allergens, and β-(1,3)-glucan were measured using enzyme immunoassays and endotoxin using th...
Racing Performance of the Quarter Horse: Genetic Parameters, Trends and Correlation for Earnings, Best Time and Time Class. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sprint racing performance of Quarter Horses in Brazil. Estimating genetic parameters, trends and correlations were obtained by single- and two-trait analyses using Bayesian inference (earnings to 2 years of equestrian age, best time and time class at distances of 301 m and 402 m). The data comprised a period of 38 equestrian years (1978 to 2015) with 23,482 sprint race records from 5861 animals. The heritability estimates were of low to moderate magnitude, ranging from 0.10 to 0.37 (single-trait) and from 0.15 to 0.41 (two-traits), and the repeatabilit...
