Topic:Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian analysis is a statistical method that applies Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. In equine research, Bayesian analysis can be used to interpret data and make probabilistic inferences about various aspects of horse health, behavior, and performance. This approach allows researchers to incorporate prior knowledge or expert opinion into the analysis, providing a flexible framework for dealing with complex datasets and uncertainty. Applications of Bayesian analysis in equine studies may include genetic evaluations, disease prevalence estimation, and performance prediction. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the application, methodology, and outcomes of Bayesian analysis in the context of equine science.
A case-control study developing a model for predicting risk factors for high SeM-specific antibody titers after natural outbreaks of Streptococcus equi subsp equi infection in horses. OBJECTIVE To develop a risk prediction model for factors associated with an SeM-specific antibody titer ≥ 3,200 in horses after naturally occurring outbreaks of Streptococcus equi subsp equi infection and to validate this model. DESIGN Case-control study. ANIMALS 245 horses: 57 horses involved in strangles outbreaks (case horses) and 188 healthy horses (control horses). PROCEDURES Serum samples were obtained from the 57 cases over a 27.5-month period after the start of outbreaks; serum samples were obtained once from the 188 controls. A Bayesian mixed-effects logistic regression model was us...
Complete mitochondrial genome sequences of Korean native horse from Jeju Island: uncovering the spatio-temporal dynamics. The Korean native horse (Jeju horse) is one of the most important animals in Korean historical, cultural, and economical viewpoints. In the early 1980s, the Jeju horse was close to extinction. The aim of this study is to explore the phylogenomics of Korean native horse focusing on spatio-temporal dynamics. We determined complete mitochondrial genome sequences for the first Korean native (n = 6) and additional Mongolian (n = 2) horses. Those sequences were analyzed together with 143 published ones using Bayesian coalescent approach as well as three different phylogenetic analysis method...
Pharmacological treatments in asthma-affected horses: A pair-wise and network meta-analysis. Equine asthma is a disease characterised by reversible airflow obstruction, bronchial hyper-responsiveness and airway inflammation following exposure of susceptible horses to specific airborne agents. Although clinical remission can be achieved in a low-airborne dust environment, repeated exacerbations may lead to irreversible airway remodelling. The available data on the pharmacotherapy of equine asthma result from several small studies, and no head-to-head clinical trials have been conducted among the available medications. Objective: To assess the impact of the pharmacological interventions...
Isolation and molecular characterisation of Halicephalobus gingivalis in the brain of a horse in Piedmont, Italy. A fatal case of meningoencephalitis was reported in a 13-year-old Koninklijk Warmbloed Paard Nederland stallion, suspected of West Nile virus (WNV) infection, in the Piedmont region of Italy. Clinical signs included right head tilt and circling, depression alternated with excitability, fever and lateral strabismus. Combined treatment consisting of dimethylsulfoxide, dexamethasone, sulphonamides and sedative was administered, but because of the poor conditions the horse was euthanatized and submitted for necropsy. At post-mortem examination no skin lesions were observed, all organs appeared nor...
Genetic diversity of the Yonaguni horse based on polymorphisms in microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA. Thirty-two microsatellites and a mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of endangered Yonaguni horses were analyzed to establish a pedigree registration system and to understand their genetic diversity for planning effective conservation. Blood samples were collected from 78 of the 130 horses in existence, and DNA was extracted and genotyped. There were two major findings. One is that it is possible to use microsatellites for Yonaguni horse pedigree registration in the future because the power of exclusion of parentage testing is reliable at 0.999998. The second is the clarification of the current genet...
Heritability of Recurrent Exertional Rhabdomyolysis in Standardbred and Thoroughbred Racehorses Derived From SNP Genotyping Data. Recurrent exertional rhabdomyolysis (RER) in Thoroughbred and Standardbred racehorses is characterized by episodes of muscle rigidity and cell damage that often recur upon strenuous exercise. The objective was to evaluate the importance of genetic factors in RER by obtaining an unbiased estimate of heritability in cohorts of unrelated Thoroughbred and Standardbred racehorses. Four hundred ninety-one Thoroughbred and 196 Standardbred racehorses were genotyped with the 54K or 74K SNP genotyping arrays. Heritability was calculated from genome-wide SNP data with a mixed linear and Bayesian model, ...
Bayesian Inference of Natural Selection from Allele Frequency Time Series. The advent of accessible ancient DNA technology now allows the direct ascertainment of allele frequencies in ancestral populations, thereby enabling the use of allele frequency time series to detect and estimate natural selection. Such direct observations of allele frequency dynamics are expected to be more powerful than inferences made using patterns of linked neutral variation obtained from modern individuals. We developed a Bayesian method to make use of allele frequency time series data and infer the parameters of general diploid selection, along with allele age, in nonequilibrium populati...
Prevalence, risk factors and genetic parameters of cresty neck in Pura Raza Español horses. Cresty neck is a relatively common morphological defect in Pura Raza Español horses and other Baroque type horse breeds, which adversely affects the breeding industry. Objective: To establish the within-breed prevalence, possible associated factors and heritability of cresty neck in Pura Raza Español horses. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of a large worldwide database of Pura Raza Español horses. Methods: The database included evaluations of 10,929 Pura Raza Español horses from 24 countries. Cresty neck score, on a 9 point scale, girth-to-height ratio, height at the withers, length of n...
Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Ecoclimatic Determinants of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Infection among Horses. Kansas witnessed an unprecedented outbreak in Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection among horses, a disease commonly referred to as pigeon fever during fall 2012. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to identify key environmental and climatic risk factors associated with C. pseudotuberculosis infection in horses. Positive infection status among horses (cases) was determined by positive test results for characteristic abscess formation, positive bacterial culture on purulent material obtained from a lanced abscess (n = 82), or positive serologic evidence of exposure to organism ...
Conventional, Bayesian, and Modified Prony’s methods for characterizing fast and slow waves in equine cancellous bone. Conventional, Bayesian, and the modified least-squares Prony's plus curve-fitting (MLSP + CF) methods were applied to data acquired using 1 MHz center frequency, broadband transducers on a single equine cancellous bone specimen that was systematically shortened from 11.8 mm down to 0.5 mm for a total of 24 sample thicknesses. Due to overlapping fast and slow waves, conventional analysis methods were restricted to data from sample thicknesses ranging from 11.8 mm to 6.0 mm. In contrast, Bayesian and MLSP + CF methods successfully separated fast and slow waves and provided reli...
Genetic Variability of Show Jumping Attributes in Young Horses Commencing Competing. The aim of the study was to select traits that may constitute a prospective criterion for breeding value prediction of young horses. The results of 1,232 starts of 894 four-, five-, six-, and seven-year-old horses, obtained during jumping championships for young horses which had not been evaluated in, alternative to championships, training centres were analyed. Nine traits were chosen of those recorded: ranking in the championship, elimination (y/n), conformation, rating of style on day one, two, and three, and penalty points on day one, two, and three of a championship. (Co)variance component...
Genome-Wide Association Study of Insect Bite Hypersensitivity in Swedish-Born Icelandic Horses. Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is the most common allergic skin disease in horses and is caused by biting midges, mainly of the genus Culicoides. The disease predominantly comprises a type I hypersensitivity reaction, causing severe itching and discomfort that reduce the welfare and commercial value of the horse. It is a multifactorial disorder influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, with heritability ranging from 0.16 to 0.27 in various horse breeds. The worldwide prevalence in different horse breeds ranges from 3% to 60%; it is more than 50% in Icelandic horses exported to ...
Effect of specialization on genetic parameters of studbook-entry inspection in Dutch Warmblood horses. Recent studies on data from the Dutch Warmblood Studbook (KWPN) have shown that the ongoing specialization of horses for either dressage (DH) or show jumping (JH) has led to a decreasing genetic relationship between the two subpopulations. The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of the specialization process on the genetic parameters of traits measured in the studbook-entry inspection of KWPN during the last fifteen years. Data from 18,125 DH and 23,800 JH recorded from 1998 until 2013 were used to analyse 13 traits scored in both DH and JH. Analyses were performed in a Bayesian framew...
A comparison of methods for whole-genome QTL mapping using dense markers in four livestock species. With dense genotyping, many choices exist for methods to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) in livestock populations. However, no across-species study has been conducted on the performance of different methods using real data. We compared three methods that correct for relatedness either implicitly or explicitly: linkage and linkage disequilibrium haplotype-based analysis (LDLA), efficient mixed-model association (EMMA) analysis, and Bayesian whole-genome regression (BayesC). We analyzed one chromosome in each of five datasets (dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, horses, and pigs) using real g...
Twenty-five thousand years of fluctuating selection on leopard complex spotting and congenital night blindness in horses. Leopard complex spotting is inherited by the incompletely dominant locus, LP, which also causes congenital stationary night blindness in homozygous horses. We investigated an associated single nucleotide polymorphism in the TRPM1 gene in 96 archaeological bones from 31 localities from Late Pleistocene (approx. 17 000 YBP) to medieval times. The first genetic evidence of LP spotting in Europe dates back to the Pleistocene. We tested for temporal changes in the LP associated allele frequency and estimated coefficients of selection by means of approximate Bayesian computation analyses. Our result...
Prevalence of Theileria equi and Babesia caballi as well as the identification of associated ticks in sympatric Grevy’s zebras (Equus grevyi) and donkeys (Equus africanus asinus) in northern Kenya. The role of equine piroplasmosis as a factor in the population decline of the Grevy's zebra is not known. We determined the prevalence of Babesia caballi and Theileria equi in cograzing Grevy's zebras (Equus grevyi) and donkeys (Equus africanus asinus) in northern Kenya and identified the associated tick vectors. Blood samples were taken from 71 donkeys and 16 Grevy's zebras from March to May 2011. A nested PCR reaction using 18s ribosomal (r)RNA primers on 87 blood spots showed 72% (51/71; 95% confidence interval [CI] 60.4-81.0%) of donkeys and 100% (16/16; 95% CI, 77.3-100%) of Grevy's zebra...
Using Bayes’ rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance. In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the post...
Genetic parameters for earnings in Quarter Horse. In this study, we estimated the heritability (h(2)) of earnings in the Quarter Horse in order to evaluate the inclusion of this trait in breeding programs. Records from 14,754 races of 2443 horses from 1978-2009 were provided by Sorocaba Hippodrome, São Paulo, Brazil. All ancestors of the registered horses were included in the pedigree file until the 4th generation. Log-transformed performance measures (LPM) were analyzed for animals aged 2, 3, and 4 years and during their entire career. The h(2) estimates were obtained using a multi-trait model and Gibbs sampling that included the effects of...
Modelling genetic evaluation for dressage in Pura Raza Español horses with focus on the rider effect. The most popular use of the Pura Raza Español horse in sport is for dressage competitions. Tests on young sport horses were first established in 2004 in Spain to collect data for the genetic evaluation of this breed's suitability for dressage. The aim of this study was to compare eight different models to find out the most appropriate way to include the rider in the genetic evaluation of dressage. A progressive removal of systematic effects from model was also analysed. A total of 8867 performance records collected between 2004 and 2011 from 1234 horses aged between 4 and 6 years old were use...
Genetic and environmental analysis of dystocia and stillbirths in draft horses. Genetic parameters and environmental factors were estimated for foaling ease (FE) and stillbirths (SBs) in four breeds of draft horses based on 11 229, 38 877, 35 764 and 13 274 FE and SB scores recorded between 1998 and 2010 for Ardennais (A), Breton (B), Comtois (C) and Percheron (P), respectively. Incidences for the three FE categories were: easy or without help 91.0% (A) to 95.4% (B), difficult 3.4% (B) to 7.1% (A) and intervention of a veterinarian 1.1% (B) to 1.9% (A). The frequency of SB ranged between 5.4% (B) and 9.4% (A). A multiple-trait threshold animal model was used that included...
Applying Bayesian network modelling to understand the links between on-farm biosecurity practice during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak and horse managers’ perceptions of a subsequent outbreak. Australia experienced its first ever outbreak of equine influenza in August 2007. Horses on 9359 premises were infected over a period of 5 months before the disease was successfully eradicated through the combination of horse movement controls, on-farm biosecurity and vaccination. In a previous premises-level case-control study of the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, the protective effect of several variables representing on-farm biosecurity practices were identified. Separately, factors associated with horse managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of biosecurity measures have b...
In vitro evaluation of defined oligosaccharide fractions in an equine model of inflammation. Dietary supplementation with oligosaccharides has been proven to be beneficial for health in several mammalian species. Next to prebiotic effects resulting in a modulation of gut micro biota, immunomodulatory effects of oligosaccharides have been documented in vivo. Supplementation with defined oligosaccharide fractions has been shown to attenuate allergic responses and enhance defensive immune responses. Despite the accumulating evidence for immunomodulatory effects, very limited information is available regarding the direct mechanism of action of oligosaccharides. This study aims to elucidat...
Risk factors associated with nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome in horses. To determine risk factors associated with the development of nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome (NCS) in horses. Methods: Retrospective case-control study. Methods: 242 horses referred for endoscopic evaluation of the upper portion of the respiratory tract (121 horses with NCS and 121 control horses). Methods: Medical records of horses that had an endoscopic evaluation of the upper airway performed between January 2003 and December 2008 were reviewed. Signalment, housing management, and season of evaluation were recorded and reviewed for each horse. The associations between clinical signs and en...
Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain. Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of...
Untangling the complex inter-relationships between horse managers’ perceptions of effectiveness of biosecurity practices using Bayesian graphical modelling. On-farm biosecurity practices have been promoted in many animal industries to protect animal populations from infections. Current approaches based on regression modelling techniques for assessing biosecurity perceptions and practices are limited for analysis of the interrelationships between multivariate data. A suitable approach, which does not require background knowledge of relationships, is provided by Bayesian network modelling. Here we apply such an approach to explore the complex interrelationships between the variables representing horse managers' perceptions of effectiveness of on-far...
Understanding the associations between on-farm biosecurity practice and equine influenza infection during the 2007 outbreak in Australia. In a previous premises-level case-control study of the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, the protective effect of several variables representing on-farm biosecurity practices was identified. However, using logistic regression it was not possible to definitively identify individual effects and associations between each of the personal biosecurity measures implemented by horse premises owners and managers in the face of the outbreak. In this study we apply Bayesian network modelling to identify the complex web of associations between these variables, horse premises infection status an...
Mitochondrial phylogenomics of modern and ancient equids. The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy's zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further charact...
A Bayesian approach for estimating detection times in horses: exploring the pharmacokinetics of a urinary acepromazine metabolite. We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. ACP (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance (Cl/...
Diagnostic accuracy of a duplex real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR assay for detection of African horse sickness virus. Blood samples collected from 503 suspect cases of African horse sickness (AHS) and another 503 from uninfected, unvaccinated South African horses, as well as 98 samples from horses from an AHS free country, were tested with an AHS virus (AHSV) specific duplex real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assay and virus isolation (VI). The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of this AHSV RT-qPCR assay and VI were estimated using a 2-test 2-population Bayesian latent class model which made no assumptions about the true infection status of the tested animals and allowed for the p...