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Topic:Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian analysis is a statistical method that applies Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. In equine research, Bayesian analysis can be used to interpret data and make probabilistic inferences about various aspects of horse health, behavior, and performance. This approach allows researchers to incorporate prior knowledge or expert opinion into the analysis, providing a flexible framework for dealing with complex datasets and uncertainty. Applications of Bayesian analysis in equine studies may include genetic evaluations, disease prevalence estimation, and performance prediction. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the application, methodology, and outcomes of Bayesian analysis in the context of equine science.
Genetic parameters for earnings in Quarter Horse. In this study, we estimated the heritability (h(2)) of earnings in the Quarter Horse in order to evaluate the inclusion of this trait in breeding programs. Records from 14,754 races of 2443 horses from 1978-2009 were provided by Sorocaba Hippodrome, São Paulo, Brazil. All ancestors of the registered horses were included in the pedigree file until the 4th generation. Log-transformed performance measures (LPM) were analyzed for animals aged 2, 3, and 4 years and during their entire career. The h(2) estimates were obtained using a multi-trait model and Gibbs sampling that included the effects of...
Modelling genetic evaluation for dressage in Pura Raza Español horses with focus on the rider effect. The most popular use of the Pura Raza Español horse in sport is for dressage competitions. Tests on young sport horses were first established in 2004 in Spain to collect data for the genetic evaluation of this breed's suitability for dressage. The aim of this study was to compare eight different models to find out the most appropriate way to include the rider in the genetic evaluation of dressage. A progressive removal of systematic effects from model was also analysed. A total of 8867 performance records collected between 2004 and 2011 from 1234 horses aged between 4 and 6 years old were use...
Genetic and environmental analysis of dystocia and stillbirths in draft horses. Genetic parameters and environmental factors were estimated for foaling ease (FE) and stillbirths (SBs) in four breeds of draft horses based on 11 229, 38 877, 35 764 and 13 274 FE and SB scores recorded between 1998 and 2010 for Ardennais (A), Breton (B), Comtois (C) and Percheron (P), respectively. Incidences for the three FE categories were: easy or without help 91.0% (A) to 95.4% (B), difficult 3.4% (B) to 7.1% (A) and intervention of a veterinarian 1.1% (B) to 1.9% (A). The frequency of SB ranged between 5.4% (B) and 9.4% (A). A multiple-trait threshold animal model was used that included...
Applying Bayesian network modelling to understand the links between on-farm biosecurity practice during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak and horse managers’ perceptions of a subsequent outbreak. Australia experienced its first ever outbreak of equine influenza in August 2007. Horses on 9359 premises were infected over a period of 5 months before the disease was successfully eradicated through the combination of horse movement controls, on-farm biosecurity and vaccination. In a previous premises-level case-control study of the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, the protective effect of several variables representing on-farm biosecurity practices were identified. Separately, factors associated with horse managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of biosecurity measures have b...
In vitro evaluation of defined oligosaccharide fractions in an equine model of inflammation. Dietary supplementation with oligosaccharides has been proven to be beneficial for health in several mammalian species. Next to prebiotic effects resulting in a modulation of gut micro biota, immunomodulatory effects of oligosaccharides have been documented in vivo. Supplementation with defined oligosaccharide fractions has been shown to attenuate allergic responses and enhance defensive immune responses. Despite the accumulating evidence for immunomodulatory effects, very limited information is available regarding the direct mechanism of action of oligosaccharides. This study aims to elucidat...
Risk factors associated with nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome in horses. To determine risk factors associated with the development of nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome (NCS) in horses. Methods: Retrospective case-control study. Methods: 242 horses referred for endoscopic evaluation of the upper portion of the respiratory tract (121 horses with NCS and 121 control horses). Methods: Medical records of horses that had an endoscopic evaluation of the upper airway performed between January 2003 and December 2008 were reviewed. Signalment, housing management, and season of evaluation were recorded and reviewed for each horse. The associations between clinical signs and en...
Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain. Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of...
Untangling the complex inter-relationships between horse managers’ perceptions of effectiveness of biosecurity practices using Bayesian graphical modelling. On-farm biosecurity practices have been promoted in many animal industries to protect animal populations from infections. Current approaches based on regression modelling techniques for assessing biosecurity perceptions and practices are limited for analysis of the interrelationships between multivariate data. A suitable approach, which does not require background knowledge of relationships, is provided by Bayesian network modelling. Here we apply such an approach to explore the complex interrelationships between the variables representing horse managers' perceptions of effectiveness of on-far...
Understanding the associations between on-farm biosecurity practice and equine influenza infection during the 2007 outbreak in Australia. In a previous premises-level case-control study of the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, the protective effect of several variables representing on-farm biosecurity practices was identified. However, using logistic regression it was not possible to definitively identify individual effects and associations between each of the personal biosecurity measures implemented by horse premises owners and managers in the face of the outbreak. In this study we apply Bayesian network modelling to identify the complex web of associations between these variables, horse premises infection status an...
Mitochondrial phylogenomics of modern and ancient equids. The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy's zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further charact...
A Bayesian approach for estimating detection times in horses: exploring the pharmacokinetics of a urinary acepromazine metabolite. We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. ACP (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance (Cl/...
Diagnostic accuracy of a duplex real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR assay for detection of African horse sickness virus. Blood samples collected from 503 suspect cases of African horse sickness (AHS) and another 503 from uninfected, unvaccinated South African horses, as well as 98 samples from horses from an AHS free country, were tested with an AHS virus (AHSV) specific duplex real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assay and virus isolation (VI). The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of this AHSV RT-qPCR assay and VI were estimated using a 2-test 2-population Bayesian latent class model which made no assumptions about the true infection status of the tested animals and allowed for the p...
Estimating variance components and predicting breeding values for eventing disciplines and grades in sport horses. Eventing competitions in Great Britain (GB) comprise three disciplines, each split into four grades, yielding 12 discipline-grade traits. As there is a demand for tools to estimate (co)variance matrices with a large number of traits, the aim of this work was to investigate different methods to produce large (co)variance matrices using GB eventing data. Data from 1999 to 2008 were used and penalty points were converted to normal scores. A sire model was utilised to estimate fixed effects of gender, age and class, and random effects of sire, horse and rider. Three methods were used to estimate (...
Molecular phylogeny of extant equids and effects of ancestral polymorphism in resolving species-level phylogenies. Short divergence times and processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and species hybridization are known to hinder the inference of species-level phylogenies due to the lack of sufficient informative genetic variation or the presence of shared but incongruent polymorphism among taxa. Extant equids (horses, zebras, and asses) are an example of a recently evolved group of mammals with an unresolved phylogeny, despite a large number of molecular studies. Previous surveys have proposed trees with rather poorly supported nodes, and the bias caused by genetic introgression or ancestral polymorphi...
Genetic variability in local Brazilian horse lines using microsatellite markers. Genetic variability at 11 microsatellite markers was analyzed in five naturalized/local Brazilian horse breeds or genetic groups. Blood samples were collected from 328 animals of the breeds Campeira (Santa Catarina State), Lavradeira (Roraima State), Pantaneira (Pantanal Mato-Grossense), Mangalarga Marchador (Minas Gerais State), as well as the genetic group Baixadeiro (Maranhão State), and the exotic breeds English Thoroughbred and Arab. We found significant genetic variability within evaluated microsatellite loci, with observed heterozygosis varying between 0.426 and 0.768 and polymorphism ...
Association of clinical signs with endoscopic findings in horses with nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome: 118 cases (2003-2008). To characterize the associations between clinical signs of nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome (NCS) and endoscopic findings in horses. Methods: Retrospective, case-control study. Methods: 239 horses (118 case horses and 121 control horses). Methods: Medical records of horses that had an endoscopic evaluation of the upper airway performed between January 2003 and December 2008 were reviewed. Clinical signs and the appearance and anatomic locations of lesions identified during endoscopic evaluation were reviewed and recorded for each horse. The associations between clinical signs and endoscopic fi...
Influence of day of postpartum breeding on pregnancy rate, pregnancy loss rate, and foaling rate in Thoroughbred mares. Records (years 2005-2007) were analyzed from a Thoroughbred stud farm in central Kentucky. Data from all breeding cycles of foaling mares were tabulated (3184 cycles of 2003 foaling mares bred between 7 and 163 days postpartum). A multiple logistic regression model employing Bayesian statistics was used to adjust for factors that significantly affected outcome; odds ratios (ORs) for pregnancy rate, pregnancy loss rate, and foaling rate were determined to examine the influence of day of postpartum breeding on these parameters. Mares bred before Day 22 (Day 0 = day of foaling) postpartum had a d...
Genetic structure and differentiation of the Italian catria horse. Catria is 1 of the 22 native Italian horse breeds that now survive from a larger number. Thirty individuals, representative of the Catria horse, were analyzed for 11 microsatellites and compared with data of 10 breeds reared in Italy. Three different approaches, genetic distances, correspondence analysis, and clustering methods, were considered to study genetic relationships among Catria and the other horse populations. Genetic differentiation among breeds was highly significant (P < 0.01) for all loci. Average F(ST) values indicate that around 10% of the total genetic variation was explain...
Spatio-temporal patterns of distribution of West Nile virus vectors in eastern Piedmont Region, Italy. West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission in Italy was first reported in 1998 as an equine outbreak near the swamps of Padule di Fucecchio, Tuscany. No other cases were identified during the following decade until 2008, when horse and human outbreaks were reported in Emilia Romagna, North Italy. Since then, WNV outbreaks have occurred annually, spreading from their initial northern foci throughout the country. Following the outbreak in 1998 the Italian public health authority defined a surveillance plan to detect WNV circulation in birds, horses and mosquitoes. By applying spatial statistical analysi...
Geographic structuring of global EIAV isolates: a single origin for New World strains? Equine infectious anaemia virus (EIAV) is classified within the Retroviridae and, like other lentivirus, has the propensity for considerable antigenic variation. An extensive phylogenetic analysis in Bayesian fashion, with significant amounts of new EIAV gag sequence information, revealed a strong geographic compartmentalization clearly related to the phylogeographic history of modern horses, pointing out that New World EIAV strains form a distinct group with a potentially common origin. This evidence suggests that a single founder event may have occurred during the reintroduction of horses to...
Whole mitochondrial genome sequencing of domestic horses reveals incorporation of extensive wild horse diversity during domestication. DNA target enrichment by micro-array capture combined with high throughput sequencing technologies provides the possibility to obtain large amounts of sequence data (e.g. whole mitochondrial DNA genomes) from multiple individuals at relatively low costs. Previously, whole mitochondrial genome data for domestic horses (Equus caballus) were limited to only a few specimens and only short parts of the mtDNA genome (especially the hypervariable region) were investigated for larger sample sets. Results: In this study we investigated whole mitochondrial genomes of 59 domestic horses from 44 breeds an...
Development of a multiplex assay for the detection of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in horses and its validation using Bayesian and conventional statistical methods. Lyme disease is a zoonotic, vector-borne disease and occurs in mammals including horses. The disease is induced by infection with spirochetes of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato group. Infection of mammalian hosts requires transmission of spirochetes by infected ticks during tick bites. Lyme disease diagnosis is based on clinical signs, possible exposure to infected ticks, and antibody testing which is traditionally performed by ELISA and Western blotting (WB). This report describes the development and validation of a new fluorescent bead-based multiplex assay for the detection of antibodie...
Genetic parameters of insect bite hypersensitivity in Dutch Friesian broodmares. Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is a seasonal allergic skin disease in horses caused by bites of certain Culicoides spp. The aim of our study was to investigate the maternal effect on IBH and to estimate the heritability and repeatability of IBH in the Dutch Friesian horse population. Data consisted of 3,453 Dutch Friesian broodmares with 3,763 visual observations on IBH clinical symptoms scored by 12 inspectors during organized foal inspections in 2004 and 2008. Nine percent of the mares (n = 310) were scored in both years. Mares descended from 144 sires and 2,554 dams and 26.2% of the dam...
A genome-wide scan for tying-up syndrome in Japanese Thoroughbreds. Tying-up syndrome, also known as recurrent exertional rhabdomyolysis in Thoroughbreds, is a common muscle disorder for racehorses. In this study, we performed a multipoint linkage analysis using LOKI based on the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method using 5 half-sib families (51 affected and 277 nonaffected horses in total), and a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using microsatellites (144 affected and 144 nonaffected horses) to map candidate regions for tying-up syndrome in Japanese Thoroughbreds. The linkage analysis identified one strong L-score (82.45) between the loci UCDEQ411 and...
Validation of models for analysis of ranks in horse breeding evaluation. Ranks have been used as phenotypes in the genetic evaluation of horses for a long time through the use of earnings, normal score or raw ranks. A model, ("underlying model" of an unobservable underlying variable responsible for ranks) exists. Recently, a full Bayesian analysis using this model was developed. In addition, in reality, competitions are structured into categories according to the technical level of difficulty linked to the technical ability of horses (horses considered to be the "best" meet their peers). The aim of this article was to validate the underlying model through simulatio...
Genetic diversity and population structure in Brazilian Mangalarga Marchador horses. One hundred and fifteen unrelated Mangalarga Marchador horses were sampled from three geographically distinct regions of Minas Gerais State, Brazil (South, Southeast, and Northeast) and tested for 10 microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity and population structure parameters were estimated with ARLEQUIN 3.0, CERVUS 2.0, POPGENE 1.31, GENEPOP on the web, STRUCTURE 2.0, and SPAGEDI 1.2 software packages. Under Hardy-Weinberg assumptions, seven markers were at equilibrium (LEX014, LEX017, LEX019, SGCV23, TKY321, VHL20, and VIASH39), while two (ASB3 and LEX031) presented significant homozygote exce...
Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from DNA markers in horses: applications to confirm genealogies with lack of genetic data. Microsatellites have been used for parentage testing and individual identification in forensic science because they are highly polymorphic and show abundant sequences dispersed throughout most eukaryotic nuclear genomes. At present, genetic testing based on DNA technology is used for most domesticated animals, including horses, to confirm identity, to determine parentage, and to validate registration certificates. But if genetic data of one of the putative parents are missing, verifying a genealogy could be questionable. The aim of this paper is to illustrate a new approach to analyze complex ...
Estimation of heritability for superficial digital flexor tendon injury by Gibbs sampling in the Thoroughbred racehorse. The superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injury causes considerable wastage of racing Thoroughbreds. In this study, the heritability of SDFT injury of the forelimbs was estimated in the Thoroughbred racehorses based on the Bayesian analysis with Gibbs sampling using threshold animal models. New horse patients of SDFT injury at the age of 2-5 years accommodated in the training centers in 2005 were used for the analyses. Based on clinical data of 8198 horses, heritability of SDFT was estimated to be the order of 0.17 (posterior mode) to 0.19 +/- 0.05 (posterior mean +/- posterior SD).
Environmental risk factors for equine West Nile virus disease cases in Texas. West Nile Virus (WNV) was first detected in the Texas equine population during June 2002. Infection has since spread rapidly across the state and become endemic in the equine population. Environmental risk factors associated with equine WNV attack rates in Texas counties during the period 2002 to 2004 were investigated. Equine WNV attack rates were smoothed using an empirical Bayesian model, because of the variability among county equine populations (range 46-9,517). Risk factors investigated included hydrological features (lakes, rivers, swamps, canals and river basins), land cover (tree, mos...
Bayesian prediction of breeding values for multivariate binary and continuous traits in simulated horse populations using threshold-linear models with Gibbs sampling. Simulated data were used to determine the properties of multivariate prediction of breeding values for categorical and continuous traits using phenotypic, molecular genetic and pedigree information by mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling. Simulation parameters were chosen such that the data resembled situations encountered in Warmblood horse populations. Genetic evaluation was performed in the context of the radiographic findings in the equine limbs. The simulated pedigree comprised seven generations and 40 000 animals per generation. The simulated data included additive gen...
