Topic:Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian analysis is a statistical method that applies Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. In equine research, Bayesian analysis can be used to interpret data and make probabilistic inferences about various aspects of horse health, behavior, and performance. This approach allows researchers to incorporate prior knowledge or expert opinion into the analysis, providing a flexible framework for dealing with complex datasets and uncertainty. Applications of Bayesian analysis in equine studies may include genetic evaluations, disease prevalence estimation, and performance prediction. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the application, methodology, and outcomes of Bayesian analysis in the context of equine science.
Genetic variability in local Brazilian horse lines using microsatellite markers. Genetic variability at 11 microsatellite markers was analyzed in five naturalized/local Brazilian horse breeds or genetic groups. Blood samples were collected from 328 animals of the breeds Campeira (Santa Catarina State), Lavradeira (Roraima State), Pantaneira (Pantanal Mato-Grossense), Mangalarga Marchador (Minas Gerais State), as well as the genetic group Baixadeiro (Maranhão State), and the exotic breeds English Thoroughbred and Arab. We found significant genetic variability within evaluated microsatellite loci, with observed heterozygosis varying between 0.426 and 0.768 and polymorphism ...
Association of clinical signs with endoscopic findings in horses with nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome: 118 cases (2003-2008). To characterize the associations between clinical signs of nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome (NCS) and endoscopic findings in horses. Methods: Retrospective, case-control study. Methods: 239 horses (118 case horses and 121 control horses). Methods: Medical records of horses that had an endoscopic evaluation of the upper airway performed between January 2003 and December 2008 were reviewed. Clinical signs and the appearance and anatomic locations of lesions identified during endoscopic evaluation were reviewed and recorded for each horse. The associations between clinical signs and endoscopic fi...
Influence of day of postpartum breeding on pregnancy rate, pregnancy loss rate, and foaling rate in Thoroughbred mares. Records (years 2005-2007) were analyzed from a Thoroughbred stud farm in central Kentucky. Data from all breeding cycles of foaling mares were tabulated (3184 cycles of 2003 foaling mares bred between 7 and 163 days postpartum). A multiple logistic regression model employing Bayesian statistics was used to adjust for factors that significantly affected outcome; odds ratios (ORs) for pregnancy rate, pregnancy loss rate, and foaling rate were determined to examine the influence of day of postpartum breeding on these parameters. Mares bred before Day 22 (Day 0 = day of foaling) postpartum had a d...
Genetic structure and differentiation of the Italian catria horse. Catria is 1 of the 22 native Italian horse breeds that now survive from a larger number. Thirty individuals, representative of the Catria horse, were analyzed for 11 microsatellites and compared with data of 10 breeds reared in Italy. Three different approaches, genetic distances, correspondence analysis, and clustering methods, were considered to study genetic relationships among Catria and the other horse populations. Genetic differentiation among breeds was highly significant (P < 0.01) for all loci. Average F(ST) values indicate that around 10% of the total genetic variation was explain...
Spatio-temporal patterns of distribution of West Nile virus vectors in eastern Piedmont Region, Italy. West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission in Italy was first reported in 1998 as an equine outbreak near the swamps of Padule di Fucecchio, Tuscany. No other cases were identified during the following decade until 2008, when horse and human outbreaks were reported in Emilia Romagna, North Italy. Since then, WNV outbreaks have occurred annually, spreading from their initial northern foci throughout the country. Following the outbreak in 1998 the Italian public health authority defined a surveillance plan to detect WNV circulation in birds, horses and mosquitoes. By applying spatial statistical analysi...
Geographic structuring of global EIAV isolates: a single origin for New World strains? Equine infectious anaemia virus (EIAV) is classified within the Retroviridae and, like other lentivirus, has the propensity for considerable antigenic variation. An extensive phylogenetic analysis in Bayesian fashion, with significant amounts of new EIAV gag sequence information, revealed a strong geographic compartmentalization clearly related to the phylogeographic history of modern horses, pointing out that New World EIAV strains form a distinct group with a potentially common origin. This evidence suggests that a single founder event may have occurred during the reintroduction of horses to...
Whole mitochondrial genome sequencing of domestic horses reveals incorporation of extensive wild horse diversity during domestication. DNA target enrichment by micro-array capture combined with high throughput sequencing technologies provides the possibility to obtain large amounts of sequence data (e.g. whole mitochondrial DNA genomes) from multiple individuals at relatively low costs. Previously, whole mitochondrial genome data for domestic horses (Equus caballus) were limited to only a few specimens and only short parts of the mtDNA genome (especially the hypervariable region) were investigated for larger sample sets. Results: In this study we investigated whole mitochondrial genomes of 59 domestic horses from 44 breeds an...
Development of a multiplex assay for the detection of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in horses and its validation using Bayesian and conventional statistical methods. Lyme disease is a zoonotic, vector-borne disease and occurs in mammals including horses. The disease is induced by infection with spirochetes of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato group. Infection of mammalian hosts requires transmission of spirochetes by infected ticks during tick bites. Lyme disease diagnosis is based on clinical signs, possible exposure to infected ticks, and antibody testing which is traditionally performed by ELISA and Western blotting (WB). This report describes the development and validation of a new fluorescent bead-based multiplex assay for the detection of antibodie...
Genetic parameters of insect bite hypersensitivity in Dutch Friesian broodmares. Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is a seasonal allergic skin disease in horses caused by bites of certain Culicoides spp. The aim of our study was to investigate the maternal effect on IBH and to estimate the heritability and repeatability of IBH in the Dutch Friesian horse population. Data consisted of 3,453 Dutch Friesian broodmares with 3,763 visual observations on IBH clinical symptoms scored by 12 inspectors during organized foal inspections in 2004 and 2008. Nine percent of the mares (n = 310) were scored in both years. Mares descended from 144 sires and 2,554 dams and 26.2% of the dam...
A genome-wide scan for tying-up syndrome in Japanese Thoroughbreds. Tying-up syndrome, also known as recurrent exertional rhabdomyolysis in Thoroughbreds, is a common muscle disorder for racehorses. In this study, we performed a multipoint linkage analysis using LOKI based on the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method using 5 half-sib families (51 affected and 277 nonaffected horses in total), and a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using microsatellites (144 affected and 144 nonaffected horses) to map candidate regions for tying-up syndrome in Japanese Thoroughbreds. The linkage analysis identified one strong L-score (82.45) between the loci UCDEQ411 and...
Validation of models for analysis of ranks in horse breeding evaluation. Ranks have been used as phenotypes in the genetic evaluation of horses for a long time through the use of earnings, normal score or raw ranks. A model, ("underlying model" of an unobservable underlying variable responsible for ranks) exists. Recently, a full Bayesian analysis using this model was developed. In addition, in reality, competitions are structured into categories according to the technical level of difficulty linked to the technical ability of horses (horses considered to be the "best" meet their peers). The aim of this article was to validate the underlying model through simulatio...
Genetic diversity and population structure in Brazilian Mangalarga Marchador horses. One hundred and fifteen unrelated Mangalarga Marchador horses were sampled from three geographically distinct regions of Minas Gerais State, Brazil (South, Southeast, and Northeast) and tested for 10 microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity and population structure parameters were estimated with ARLEQUIN 3.0, CERVUS 2.0, POPGENE 1.31, GENEPOP on the web, STRUCTURE 2.0, and SPAGEDI 1.2 software packages. Under Hardy-Weinberg assumptions, seven markers were at equilibrium (LEX014, LEX017, LEX019, SGCV23, TKY321, VHL20, and VIASH39), while two (ASB3 and LEX031) presented significant homozygote exce...
Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from DNA markers in horses: applications to confirm genealogies with lack of genetic data. Microsatellites have been used for parentage testing and individual identification in forensic science because they are highly polymorphic and show abundant sequences dispersed throughout most eukaryotic nuclear genomes. At present, genetic testing based on DNA technology is used for most domesticated animals, including horses, to confirm identity, to determine parentage, and to validate registration certificates. But if genetic data of one of the putative parents are missing, verifying a genealogy could be questionable. The aim of this paper is to illustrate a new approach to analyze complex ...
Estimation of heritability for superficial digital flexor tendon injury by Gibbs sampling in the Thoroughbred racehorse. The superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injury causes considerable wastage of racing Thoroughbreds. In this study, the heritability of SDFT injury of the forelimbs was estimated in the Thoroughbred racehorses based on the Bayesian analysis with Gibbs sampling using threshold animal models. New horse patients of SDFT injury at the age of 2-5 years accommodated in the training centers in 2005 were used for the analyses. Based on clinical data of 8198 horses, heritability of SDFT was estimated to be the order of 0.17 (posterior mode) to 0.19 +/- 0.05 (posterior mean +/- posterior SD).
Environmental risk factors for equine West Nile virus disease cases in Texas. West Nile Virus (WNV) was first detected in the Texas equine population during June 2002. Infection has since spread rapidly across the state and become endemic in the equine population. Environmental risk factors associated with equine WNV attack rates in Texas counties during the period 2002 to 2004 were investigated. Equine WNV attack rates were smoothed using an empirical Bayesian model, because of the variability among county equine populations (range 46-9,517). Risk factors investigated included hydrological features (lakes, rivers, swamps, canals and river basins), land cover (tree, mos...
Bayesian prediction of breeding values for multivariate binary and continuous traits in simulated horse populations using threshold-linear models with Gibbs sampling. Simulated data were used to determine the properties of multivariate prediction of breeding values for categorical and continuous traits using phenotypic, molecular genetic and pedigree information by mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling. Simulation parameters were chosen such that the data resembled situations encountered in Warmblood horse populations. Genetic evaluation was performed in the context of the radiographic findings in the equine limbs. The simulated pedigree comprised seven generations and 40 000 animals per generation. The simulated data included additive gen...
Estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values for multivariate threshold and continuous data in a simulated horse population using Gibbs sampling and residual maximum likelihood. Simulated horse data were used to compare multivariate estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values (BV) for categorical, continuous and molecular genetic data using linear animal models via residual maximum likelihood (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling (GS). Simulation included additive genetic values, residuals and fixed effects for one continuous trait, liabilities of four binary traits, and quantitative trait locus (QTL) effects and genetic markers with different recombination rates and polymor...
Accuracy of an indirect fluorescent-antibody test and of a complement-fixation test for the diagnosis of Babesia caballi in field samples from horses. We evaluated the indirect fluorescent-antibody (IFA) test and complement-fixation (CF) test for diagnosis of equine piroplasmosis in the absence of a gold standard. Using Evan's blue, we estimated the specificity of the IFA test on a parasite-free, field horse population to be 98% (95% confidence interval=97, 99). We observed an excellent test agreement (kappa=0.83) between two collaborating laboratories when the IFA test was performed on identical samples from an endemic area. Using Bayesian analysis with informative prior probability distributions, we estimated the sensitivity of the IFA tes...
Estimation of heritability and genetic correlation for behavioural responses by Gibbs sampling in the Thoroughbred racehorse. Genetic variation of the behaviour of racehorses is one of the major concerns for racehorse breeders. In this study, the heritabilities of behavioural responses to the inspections of conjunctiva, auscultation and blood sampling and the genetic correlations among them were estimated in the Thoroughbred racehorse. The estimation was done with Bayesian analysis with Gibbs sampling based on the univariate or bivariate threshold animal models. The behavioural responses were scored with four categories at the first entrance quarantine in Miho Training Center of Japan Racing Association from 1993 to ...
Validation of the indirect fluorescent antibody and the complement fixation tests for the diagnosis of Theileria equi. The indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) test for Theileria equi was evaluated to assess test's suitability for the serological diagnosis of equine piroplasmosis, to provide performance parameters for the purpose of test validation, and to compare it with the complement fixation (CF) test. Using a protocol that included Evan's blue, the specificity of the IFA test was estimated at 99.0% for T. equi by the classical method of analysis, and 96.6% by the Bayesian method. The use of Evan's blue in the test protocol increased test specificity and contributed to an excellent test agreement between tw...
Bayesian estimation of genetic parameters for multivariate threshold and continuous phenotypes and molecular genetic data in simulated horse populations using Gibbs sampling. Requirements for successful implementation of multivariate animal threshold models including phenotypic and genotypic information are not known yet. Here simulated horse data were used to investigate the properties of multivariate estimators of genetic parameters for categorical, continuous and molecular genetic data in the context of important radiological health traits using mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling. The simulated pedigree comprised 7 generations and 40000 animals per generation. Additive genetic values, residuals and fixed effects for one continuous trait and ...
Individual-based assessment of population structure and admixture in Austrian, Croatian and German draught horses. All over Europe, the number of draught horses has decreased drastically during the last 50 years. As a prerequisite for efficient management decisions, we analysed the conservation status in Austrian (Noriker Carinthia - NC, Noriker Salzburg - NS), Croatian (Croatian Coldblood - C, Posavina horse - P) and German (Altmaerkisch Coldblood - A, Black Forest horse - BF, Mecklenburg Coldblood - M, Rhenish German Draught horse - R, Saxon Thuringa Coldblood - ST, Schleswig Draught horse - Sch, South German Coldblood - SG) draught horses (434) using multilocus genotypic information from 30 (effectively...
Genetic diversity among horse populations with a special focus on the Franches-Montagnes breed. Genetic characterization helps to assure breed integrity and to assign individuals to defined populations. The objective of this study was to characterize genetic diversity in six horse breeds and to analyse the population structure of the Franches-Montagnes breed, especially with regard to the degree of introgression with Warmblood. A total of 402 alleles from 50 microsatellite loci were used. The average number of alleles per locus was significantly lower in Thoroughbreds and Arabians. Average heterozygosities between breeds ranged from 0.61 to 0.72. The overall average of the coefficient of...
Estimation of heritability for Tying-up syndrome in the Thoroughbred racehorse by Gibbs sampling. Tying-up is a condition that primarily affects the muscles of horses. In this study, the heritability of the Tying-up syndrome in the Thoroughbred racehorse was estimated by Bayesian analysis with Gibbs sampling based on the threshold model for binary traits. The data used were the clinical data in racehorses diagnosed by veterinarians of the Racehorse Clinics of Japan Racing Association from 2000 to 2003. The health status of the Tying-up was treated as a binary trait. In the genetic analysis, the effect of changing the amount of the pedigree or inbreeding information on the estimation of her...
Inheritance of hereditary equine regional dermal asthenia in Quarter Horses. To assess heritability and mode of inheritance for hereditary equine regional dermal asthenia (HERDA) in Quarter Horses. Methods: 1,295 horses with Quarter Horse bloodlines, including 58 horses affected with HERDA. Methods: Horses were classified as affected or unaffected or as undetermined when data were insufficient to assess phenotype. Pedigree data were analyzed to determine the probable mode of inheritance. Heritability was estimated by use of Bayesian statistical methods. Results: Heritability (mean+/-SD) of HERDA was estimated to be 0.38+/-0.13, with both sexes having an equal probabili...
Use of a Bayesian risk-mapping technique to estimate spatial risks for mare reproductive loss syndrome in Kentucky. To estimate spatial risks associated with mare reproductive loss syndrome (MRLS) during 2001 among horses in a specific study population and partition the herd effects into those attributable to herd location and those that were spatially random and likely attributable to herd management. Animals-Pregnant broodmares from 62 farms in 7 counties in central Kentucky. Methods: Veterinarians provided the 2001 abortion incidence proportions for each farm included in the study. Farms were georeferenced and data were analyzed by use of a fully Bayesian risk-mapping technique. Results: Large farm-to-fa...
A Bayesian approach to prediction of stallion daily sperm output. In equine breeding, the number of spermatozoa ejaculated is considered an important factor in fertility. Methods for predicting the number of spermatozoa have been derived from semen collection procedures. A once-daily collection period for 10 days is a standard recommendation to predict long-term daily sperm output (DSO). The first objective of this study was to determine the precision or repeatability of these DSO predictions. Semen was collected and evaluated daily during four periods for 10 days, for 15 different stallions. The analytical methods utilized hierarchal Bayesian modeling as im...
Heritability of recurrent exertional rhabdomyolysis in Thoroughbred racehorses. To determine the likely mode of inheritance and identify probable foundation horses for recurrent exertional rhabdomyolysis (RER) in Thoroughbred (TB) racehorses. Methods: 4 families of TB racehorses with a high prevalence of RER, consisting of 3 to 53 horses/family, were used to determine mode of inheritance. Sixty-two TB horses with RER and 34 control TB racehorses without RER were used to identify probable foundation horses for the RER trait. Methods: RER was diagnosed by a veterinarian and verified by detecting high serum creatine kinase activity. Pedigrees dating from 1930 for all horses ...
Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detection of anti-Trypanosoma evansi equine antibodies. The standardization of ELISA for the detection of anti-Trypanosoma evansi antibodies in naturally and experimentally infected horses is described. Bayesian analysis was used to establish the cutoff between positive and negative sera. In order to determine the assessment of the ELISA test, the results obtained were compared with those from an IFA. A relative sensibility of 98.39%, a specificity of 95.12% and a predictive value of 96.83% were determined. The standardized technique was used to evaluate the antibody production against trypanosome in an experimentally infected equine, in which the ...
Population pharmacokinetics of gentamicin in horses. To develop and validate a population pharmacokinetic model for gentamicin in horses, using retrospective clinical data. Methods: 62 horses that had been treated IV with multiple doses of gentamicin at our veterinary teaching hospital between 1987 and 1996. Procedure-46 horses were assigned to the study group, and 16 to the validation group. Detailed history of dosage, sample collection times, and selected pathophysiologic variables were recorded for each patient. Samples were analyzed by use of a fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. Pharmacostatistical analysis was conducted, using co...