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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Horse breed discrimination using machine learning methods. Genetic relationships and population structure of 8 horse breeds in the Czech and Slovak Republics were investigated using classification methods for breed discrimination. To demonstrate genetic differences among these breeds, we used genetic information - genotype data of microsatellite markers and classification algorithms - to perform a probabilistic prediction of an individual's breed. In total, 932 unrelated animals were genotyped for 17 microsatellite markers recommended by the ISAG for parentage testing (AHT4, AHT5, ASB2, HMS3, HMS6, HMS7, HTG4, HTG10, VHL20, HTG6, HMS2, HTG7, ASB17, AS...
The pharmacokinetics of the weakly protein-bound anionic compound diatrizoate in serum and synovial fluid of the horse. To establish a pharmacokinetic model for the model drug, sodium diatrizoate (DTZ), allowing joint disappearance kinetics to be estimated from serum appearance kinetics following intra-articular administration, and to calculate the relative joint exposure after intravenous and intra-articular DTZ administration (F(iv/IA)). Methods: Each of five horses received an aqueous solution of 3.9 mg/kg sodium diatrizoate both intravenously and intra-articularly separated by a one-week wash out period. Serum and synovial samples were collected over 7 h and analyzed for content of model compound using indu...
Ultrasonographic assessment of the superficial digital flexor tendons of National Hunt racehorses in training over two racing seasons. It is important to ascertain the prevalence of superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injuries and to improve methods of predicting injury in National Hunt (NH) racehorses. Objective: To establish: 1) the prevalence of SDFT tendinopathy in NH horses; 2) whether routine ultrasonography can be used to predict SDFT injuries; 3) whether previous tendinopathy predisposes to reinjury; 4) a normal range for the SDFT cross-sectional area (CSA); and 5) the effects of gender, age, background (ex-flat or ex-store), limb, training and rest periods on SDFT CSA. Methods: Routine ultrasound assessment of t...
Factors predictive of abnormal results for computed tomography of the head in horses affected by neurologic disorders: 57 cases (2001-2007). To determine neurologic indications associated with abnormal results for computed tomography (CT) imaging of the head of horses affected by neurologic disorders. Methods: Retrospective case series. Methods: 57 horses. Methods: Signalment, history, clinical abnormalities, and clinicopathologic findings were obtained from medical records of horses examined because of neurologic disorders, and precontrast and postcontrast CT images of the head were reviewed. Data were analyzed by use of univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results: For a horse with abnormal mentation, odds of having a...
Multivariate analysis of factors associated with post-anesthetic times to standing in isoflurane-anesthetized horses: 381 cases. To identify anesthesia-related variables which may independently predict time to standing in horses anesthetized with ketamine/diazepam/isoflurane. Methods: Retrospective case series. Methods: Three hundred and eighty-one horses. Methods: Case records were searched for the years 2000-2003 and 381 horses older than 12 months which weighed at least 200 kg were identified. Data were extracted from the records, and only horses that were anesthetized with xylazine, ketamine, diazepam and isoflurane were included in the analysis. Multiple linear regression was used to relate time to standing with de...
Prediction of incipient pasture-associated laminitis from hyperinsulinaemia, hyperleptinaemia and generalised and localised obesity in a cohort of ponies. The ability to predict ponies at increased risk of laminitic episodes, when exposed to nutrient dense pasture, would facilitate management to avoid disease. Objective: To identify variables and clinically useful cut-off values with reproducible diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of ponies that subsequently developed laminitis when exposed to nutrient dense pasture. Methods: A cohort of predominantly Welsh and Dartmoor ponies from a closed herd was evaluated in March 2006 (n = 74) and March 2007 (n = 57). Ponies were categorised as never laminitic or previously laminitic according to report...
Use of kinetic gait analysis for detection, quantification, and differentiation of hind limb lameness and spinal ataxia in horses. To evaluate use of kinetic gait analysis for detection, quantification, and differentiation of hind limb lameness and spinal ataxia in horses. Methods: Prospective clinical study. Methods: 36 horses. Procedures-Kinetic gait analysis with a force plate was performed for 12 clinically normal horses, 12 horses with hind limb lameness, and 12 horses with spinal ataxia. Kinetic variables were compared among groups, correlated to subjective grading, and used to build predictive models to assess the accuracy of discrimination. Results: Subsets of kinetic variables were characteristically altered in a...
Evaluation of intraoperative culture results as a predictor for short-term incisional complications in 49 horses undergoing abdominal surgery. This study evaluated bacterial isolates obtained during abdominal surgery and their relationship to short-term incisional complications. Samples of peritoneal fluid and from resection and/or enterotomy sites from 49 horses were cultured, with 96% having at least one positive culture result. The most common isolates were Escherichia coli, Streptococcus spp, and Enterococcus spp. Horses with small intestinal resections were more likely to grow obligate anaerobes and enteric organisms. Horses with small intestinal lesions (+/- resection) were more likely to grow enteric organisms and less likely ...
MRI-based inverse finite element approach for the mechanical assessment of patellar articular cartilage from static compression test. The mechanical property of articular cartilage determines to a great extent the functionality of diarthrodial joints. Consequently, the early detection of mechanical and, thus, functional changes of cartilage is crucial for preventive measures to maintain the mobility and the quality of life of individuals. An alternative to conventional mechanical testing is the inverse finite element approach, enabling non-destructive testing of the tissue. We evaluated a method for the assessment of the equilibrium material properties of the patellar cartilage based on magnetic resonance imaging during pate...
Preclinical animal models in single site cartilage defect testing: a systematic review. Review the literature for single site cartilage defect research and evaluate the respective strengths and weaknesses of different preclinical animal models. Methods: A literature search for animal models evaluating single site cartilage defects was performed. Variables tabulated and analyzed included animal species, age and number, defect depth and diameter and study duration. Cluster analyses were then used to separate animals with only distal femoral defects into similar groups based on defect dimensions. Representative human studies were included allowing comparison of common clinical lesio...
Mineral content of hay harvested in Bavarian and Swiss horse farms. Predictive value of cutting time, number of cut, botanical composition, origin and fertilization. Hay samples from 29 horse farms in Southern Upper Bavaria and 31 horse farms in Switzerland were taken and analysed for minerals such as calcium, magnesium, phosphorus and potassium. The content of herbs and legumes in the hay was determined and the Weende analysis was performed. Comparison between Bavaria and Switzerland resulted in comparable calcium contents of approximately 4 g Ca/kg dry matter (DM) in grass hay. Hay with more than 10% of herbs and legumes found only in Switzerland showed higher Ca contents of >7 g Ca/kg DM in hay. The mineral contents of phosphorus and potassium were l...
Bone marrow and lymph node evaluation. Evaluation of equine bone marrow and lymph node samples can provide the definitive diagnosis in some cases, and may provide useful information in other cases. Some newer techniques, including immunophenotyping of cells and clonality assays, provide the capability to more precisely identify cells, both as to origin and malignancy. Use of these techniques on equine bone marrow and lymph node samples, and compiling of the data, will eventually provide invaluable information about equine neoplasia that will greatly improve the ability to predict tumor behavior and response to therapy.
Developments in stallion semen evaluation. The conventional approach to evaluation of stallion semen dates back several decades, and includes evaluation of spermatozoal concentration, semen volume, spermatozoon morphological characteristics, and spermatozoal motility patterns initially and following in-vitro storage. While an analysis performed in this manner does have predictive value, incorporation of some more newly developed techniques may improve the predictive value of the examination. This communication addresses some newer tests that can be applied today for evaluation of semen, as well some tests that may be available in the c...
The influence of body mass and thoracic dimensions on arterial oxygenation in anaesthetized horses and ponies. To examine the relationship between body mass and thoracic dimensions on arterial oxygen tensions (PaO(2)) in anaesthetized horses and ponies positioned in dorsal recumbency. Methods: Prospective clinical study. Methods: Thirty six client-owned horses and ponies, mean [+/-SD (range)] age 8.1 +/- 4.8 (1.5-20) years and mean body mass 467 +/- 115 (203-656) kg. Methods: Before general anaesthesia, food and water were withheld for 12 and 1 hours respectively. Body mass (kg), height at the withers (H), thoracic circumference (C), thoracic depth (length between dorsal spinous process and sternum; D)...
Use of linear and non-linear functions to describe the growth of young sport- and race-horses born in Normandy. The objectives of this study were to establish standards for growth and to model the evolution of wither height (WH) between birth and adult age in different breeds of sport- and race-horses. Therefore, 398 foals, then yearlings of three different breeds, were measured regularly between birth and 18 months of age. Linear and non-linear functions were compared for describing the growth in each breed group. The monomolecular, Gompertz, logistic and cubic models correctly estimated WH in the three breeds during the first 2 years (R2 = 0.99, s.e. 3.9 to 4.5) and better than the cubic and quadratic...
Admission clinicopathological data, length of stay, cost and mortality in an equine neonatal intensive care unit. Veterinary internists need to prognosticate patients quickly and accurately in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). This may depend on laboratory data collected on admission, the cost of hospitalisation, length of stay (LOS) and mortality rate experienced in the NICU. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective study of 62 equine neonates admitted to a NICU of a private equine referral hospital to determine the prognostic value of venous clinicopathological data collected on admission before therapy, the cost of hospitalisation, LOS and mortality rate. The WBC count, total CO2 (TCO2) and alkalin...
A study of Lusitano mare lactation curve with Wood’s model. Milk yield and composition data from 7 nursing Lusitano mares (450 to 580 kg of body weight and 2 to 9 parities) were used in this study (5 measurements per mare for milk yield and 8 measurements for composition). Wood's lactation model was used to describe milk fat, protein, and lactose lactation curves. Mean values for the concentration of major milk components across the lactation period (180 d) were 5.9 g/kg of fat, 18.4 g/kg of protein, and 60.8 g/kg of lactose. Milk fat and protein (g/kg) decreased and lactose (g/kg) increased during the 180 d of lactation. Curves for milk protein and la...
Sperm morphology and chromatin integrity in Swedish warmblood stallions and their relationship to pregnancy rates. Artificial insemination is not as widely used in horses as in other domestic species, such as dairy cattle and pigs, partly because of the wide variation in sperm quality between stallion ejaculates and partly due to decreased fertility following the use of cooled transported spermatozoa. Furthermore, predictive tests for sperm fertilising ability are lacking. The objective of the present study was to assess sperm morphology and chromatin integrity in ejaculates obtained from 11 warmblood breeding stallions in Sweden, and to evaluate the relationship of these parameters to pregnancy rates to i...
Bayesian prediction of breeding values for multivariate binary and continuous traits in simulated horse populations using threshold-linear models with Gibbs sampling. Simulated data were used to determine the properties of multivariate prediction of breeding values for categorical and continuous traits using phenotypic, molecular genetic and pedigree information by mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling. Simulation parameters were chosen such that the data resembled situations encountered in Warmblood horse populations. Genetic evaluation was performed in the context of the radiographic findings in the equine limbs. The simulated pedigree comprised seven generations and 40 000 animals per generation. The simulated data included additive gen...
Estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values for multivariate threshold and continuous data in a simulated horse population using Gibbs sampling and residual maximum likelihood. Simulated horse data were used to compare multivariate estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values (BV) for categorical, continuous and molecular genetic data using linear animal models via residual maximum likelihood (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling (GS). Simulation included additive genetic values, residuals and fixed effects for one continuous trait, liabilities of four binary traits, and quantitative trait locus (QTL) effects and genetic markers with different recombination rates and polymor...
Retrospective study of predictive variables for maximal heart rate (HRmax) in horses undergoing strenuous treadmill exercise. Heart rate is one of the most commonly measured variables in equine exercise physiology and relative exercise intensity commonly expressed as % of maximal heart rate. A number of influences affect maximal heart rate (HRmax), including age of the horse but other factors have not been described. Objective: To determine if fitness, health status, gender, breed, athletic use, body mass, in addition to age, are predictive of HRmax in the horse. Methods: Maximal heart rate data from 328 horses which underwent treadmill exercise tests at 5 different laboratories were obtained retrospectively. Univari...
Correlation between routine radiographic findings and early racing career in French trotters. The relationship between the presence of radiological abnormalities and subsequent racing performance is controversial. However, as training is expensive and time consuming, it would save time and money to identify subjects with osteo-articular lesions not compatible with a normal racing career on the basis of routine radiographic screenings at yearling age. Objective: To evaluate the impact of osteo-articular lesions on racing ability in French Trotters and identify radiographic changes associated with failure in 'qualification', in order to provide objective criteria for selection of horses ...
Theoretical MRI contrast model for exogenous T2 agents. The rational development of new generations of MRI contrast agents (CAs) requires a scheme for predicting contrast enhancement. Previous contrast predictions have been based largely on empirical results in specific systems. Here we present a general theoretical model for evaluating the minimum concentration of T2 CA required for satisfactory image contrast. This analytic contrast model is applicable to a wide range of T2-type agents and delivery scenarios, and requires only a few readily evaluated parameters. We demonstrated the model by predicting contrast produced by superparamagnetic ferumo...
Use of infrared spectroscopy for diagnosis of traumatic arthritis in horses. To evaluate use of infrared spectroscopy for diagnosis of traumatic arthritis in horses. Methods: 48 horses with traumatic arthritis and 5 clinically and radiographically normal horses. Methods: Synovial fluid samples were collected from 77 joints in 48 horses with traumatic arthritis. Paired samples (affected and control joints) from 29 horses and independent samples from an affected (n = 12) or control (7) joint from 19 horses were collected for model calibration. A second set of 20 normal validation samples was collected from 5 clinically and radiographically normal horses. Fourier transfor...
Antinociceptive effects, metabolism and disposition of ketamine in ponies under target-controlled drug infusion. Ketamine is widely used as an anesthetic in a variety of drug combinations in human and veterinary medicine. Recently, it gained new interest for use in long-term pain therapy administered in sub-anesthetic doses in humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPk) model for ketamine in ponies and to investigate the effect of low-dose ketamine infusion on the amplitude and the duration of the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR). A target-controlled infusion (TCI) of ketamine with a target plasma level of 1 microg/ml S-ketamine over 120 ...
Environmental and ecological determinants of West Nile virus occurrence in horses in North Dakota, 2002. West Nile virus (WNV) outbreak in North Dakota in 2002 included over 569 horse cases, clustered mainly in the eastern and northeastern parts of the state. The pattern of occurrence observed suggested existence of specific environmental and ecological factors that increased the risk for infection and illness in those locations. We developed a predictive model with factors that explained the pattern of WNV occurrence observed. Results indicated that surface elevation, temperature, precipitation, reported WNV-positive birds, reported WNV-positive humans, and reported WNV-positive mosquitoes were ...
Use of a multivariable model to estimate the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals that are 7 days of age or less. To create a mathematical model to assist in early prediction of the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals < or= 7 days old. Methods: Prospective study. Methods: 1,073 foals. Methods: Medical records from 910 hospitalized foals < or = 7 days old for which outcome was recorded as died or discharged alive were reviewed. Thirty-four variables including historical information, physical examination findings, and laboratory results were examined for association with survival. Variables associated with being discharged alive were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model. A...
Prediction of equine risk of West Nile virus infection based on dead bird surveillance. Since the introduction of West Nile Virus (WNV) to the United States in 1999, the efficacy of dead bird surveillance for the prediction of human and veterinary WNV infection has been an issue of debate. We utilized South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control surveillance data from 2003 to determine whether dead bird surveillance accurately predicts equine WNV infection on a county level. We adjusted for human population density as a potential confounder of an association between WNV-positive dead bird counts and mammalian WNV risk. We found a strong positive association bet...
A comparison of survival models for assessing risk of racehorse fatality. Survival analysis was used to assess risk factors for fatal injuries on UK race courses. This allowed assessment of variation due to temporal horse-level effects, including previous racing intensity and historical distribution of race types, as well as race-level factors. Comparisons were made between measuring survival time as number of days and as number of races to injury from the first race. Two related models were presented for time as number of races to injury: a Cox regression model fitted using partial likelihood, with the Efron approximation to handling ties, and a discrete-time logit...
