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Topic:Predictive Model

Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
IgE+ plasmablasts predict the onset of clinical allergy.
Frontiers in immunology    February 2, 2023   Volume 14 1104609 doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2023.1104609
Simonin EM, Babasyan S, Tarsillo J, Wagner B.IgE+ plasmablasts develop following allergen exposure and B cell activation. They secrete IgE and therefore are directly linked to maintain the mechanisms of IgE-mediated allergies. Here, we show that the presence of IgE+ plasmablasts in peripheral blood not only coincides with clinical allergy, but also predicts the upcoming development of clinical disease. Using an equine model of naturally occurring allergy, we compared the timing of allergen exposure, arrival of IgE+ plasmablasts in peripheral blood, and onset of clinical disease. We found that IgE+ plasmablasts predict the development of ...
Predicting the outcome of Thoroughbred stallion matings on the basis of dismount semen sample analyses.
Reproduction (Cambridge, England)    January 18, 2023   Volume 165, Issue 3 281-288 doi: 10.1530/REP-22-0309
Aitken RJ, Lambourne S, Medica AJ.A capacity to predict the likelihood of pregnancy following natural matings would be of considerable benefit to the Thoroughbred horse breeding industry. In this article, we describe a strategy for achieving this outcome through the analysis of dismount samples, that achieved an overall accuracy of 94.6%. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the analysis of dismount semen samples from Thoroughbred stallions could be used to predict whether a given mating would result in a pregnancy. The analysis was based on 143 matings of 141 mares by a cohort of 7 Thoroughbred stallions over a ...
Prediction of continuous and discrete kinetic parameters in horses from inertial measurement units data using recurrent artificial neural networks.
Scientific reports    January 13, 2023   Volume 13, Issue 1 740 doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-27899-4
Parmentier JIM, Bosch S, van der Zwaag BJ, Weishaupt MA, Gmel AI, Havinga PJM, van Weeren PR, Braganca FMS.Vertical ground reaction force (GRFz) measurements are the best tool for assessing horses' weight-bearing lameness. However, collection of these data is often impractical for clinical use. This study evaluates GRFz predicted using data from body-mounted IMUs and long short-term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM-RNN). Twenty-four clinically sound horses, equipped with IMUs on the upper-body (UB) and each limb, walked and trotted on a GRFz measuring treadmill (TiF). Both systems were time-synchronised. Data from randomly selected 16, 4, and 4 horses formed training, validation, and test dat...
Efficient Development of Gait Classification Models for Five-Gaited Horses Based on Mobile Phone Sensors.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    January 3, 2023   Volume 13, Issue 1 doi: 10.3390/ani13010183
Davíðsson HB, Rees T, Ólafsdóttir MR, Einarsson H.Automated gait classification has traditionally been studied using horse-mounted sensors. However, smartphone-based sensors are more accessible, but the performance of gait classification models using data from such sensors has not been widely known or accessible. In this study, we performed horse gait classification using deep learning models and data from mobile phone sensors located in the rider's pocket. We gathered data from 17 horses and 14 riders. The data were gathered simultaneously from movement sensors in a mobile phone located in the rider's pocket and a gait classification system ...
Validation of inertial measurement units to detect and predict horse behaviour while stabled.
Equine veterinary journal    December 20, 2022   doi: 10.1111/evj.13909
Anderson K, Morrice-West AV, Walmsley EA, Fisher AD, Whitton RC, Hitchens PL.Musculoskeletal injuries are observed in Thoroughbred racehorses and may become catastrophic. Currently, there are limited methods for early detection of such injuries. Most injuries develop gradually due to accumulated damage, providing the opportunity for early detection. Horses experiencing pain or lameness may exhibit changes in behaviour so the development of an objective, real-time system monitoring horse behaviour may enable detection of bone injuries before catastrophic failure. Objective: To determine whether intensive observational methods of assessing horse behaviour can be replaced...
Protein microarray allergen profiling in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and serum of horses with asthma.
Journal of veterinary internal medicine    December 8, 2022   Volume 37, Issue 1 328-337 doi: 10.1111/jvim.16600
Wyler M, Sage SE, Marti E, White S, Gerber V.The diagnostic value of allergen-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) in horses with asthma is uncertain. A recently developed protein microarray detected abnormally high latex-specific IgE concentrations in the serum of horses with severe asthma. Objective: The main objective was to characterize the IgE profiles of asthmatic horses in Switzerland using a protein microarray platform in serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). The secondary objective was to determine whether serological and BALF allergen-specific IgE concentrations correlated. Methods: Forty-four asthmatic and 39 control horse...
Predictors of foaling outcomes in barren and maiden Thoroughbred mares in South Africa.
Journal of the South African Veterinary Association    November 8, 2022   Volume 93, Issue 2 doi: 10.36303/JSAVA.519
Scholtz M, Guthrie AJ, Fosgate GT, Schulman ML.Population demographics and reproductive performance of Thoroughbred populations have been described, but the most recent assessment of the South African Thoroughbred population was reported two decades ago. Objectives of this study were to report demographic data for selected Thoroughbred breeding populations and to analyse selected mare-level variables in association with foaling outcomes, as predictors of reproductive performance. The National Horseracing Authority of Southern Africa's stud health scheme requires annual screening of Thoroughbred stallions, maiden and barren mares for venere...
Clinical predictive models in equine medicine: A systematic review.
Equine veterinary journal    November 8, 2022   Volume 55, Issue 4 573-583 doi: 10.1111/evj.13880
Cummings CO, Krucik DDR, Price E.Clinical predictive models use a patient's baseline demographic and clinical data to make predictions about patient outcomes and have the potential to aid clinical decision making. The extent of equine clinical predictive models is unknown in the literature. Using PubMed and Google Scholar, we systematically reviewed the predictive models currently described for use in equine patients. Models were eligible for inclusion if they were published in a peer-reviewed article as a multivariable model used to predict a clinical/laboratory/imaging outcome in an individual horse or herd. The agreement o...
Hierarchical modeling of elastic moduli of equine hoof wall.
Journal of the mechanical behavior of biomedical materials    October 23, 2022   Volume 136 105529 doi: 10.1016/j.jmbbm.2022.105529
Shiang CA, Bonney C, Lazarus B, Meyers M, Jasiuk I.This study predicts analytically effective elastic moduli of substructures within an equine hoof wall. The hoof wall is represented as a composite material with a hierarchical structure comprised of a sequence of length scales. A bottom-up approach is employed. Thus, the outputs from a lower spatial scale serve as the inputs for the following scale. The models include the Halpin-Tsai model, composite cylinders model, a sutured interface model, and classical laminate theory. The length scales span macroscale, mesoscale, sub-mesoscale, microscale, sub-microscale, and nanoscale. The macroscale re...
Following the niche: the differential impact of the last glacial maximum on four European ungulates.
Communications biology    September 29, 2022   Volume 5, Issue 1 1038 doi: 10.1038/s42003-022-03993-7
Leonardi M, Boschin F, Boscato P, Manica A.Predicting the effects of future global changes on species requires a better understanding of the ecological niche dynamics in response to climate; the large climatic fluctuations of the last 50,000 years can be used as a natural experiment to that aim. Here we test whether the realized niche of horse, aurochs, red deer, and wild boar changed between 47,000 and 7500 years ago using paleoecological modelling over an extensive archaeological database. We show that they all changed their niche, with species-specific responses to climate fluctuations. We also suggest that they survived the climati...
Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management.
Frontiers in veterinary science    September 7, 2022   Volume 9 963758 doi: 10.3389/fvets.2022.963758
de Vos CJ, Petie R, van Klink EGM, Swanenburg M.Increasing globalization and international trade contribute to rapid expansion of animal and human diseases. Hence, preparedness is warranted to prevent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases or detect outbreaks in an early stage. We developed a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to inform risk managers on the incursion risk of multiple livestock diseases, about the main sources for incursion and the change of risk over time. RRAT was built as a relational database to link data on disease outbreaks worldwide, on introduction routes and on disease-specific parameters. The tool was parame...
Improving energy consumption prediction for residential buildings using Modified Wild Horse Optimization with Deep Learning model.
Chemosphere    September 1, 2022   Volume 308, Issue Pt 1 136277 doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.136277
Vasanthkumar P, Senthilkumar N, Rao KS, Metwally ASM, Fattah IM, Shaafi T, Murugan VS.The consumption of a significant quantity of energy in buildings has been linked to the emergence of environmental problems that can have unfavourable effects on people. The prediction of energy consumption is widely regarded as an effective method for the conservation of energy and the improvement of decision-making processes for the purpose of lowering energy use. When it comes to the generation of positive results in prediction tasks, the Machine Learning (ML) technique can be considered the most appropriate and applicable strategy. This article presents a Modified Wild Horse Optimization w...
Video analysis of jockey fall characteristics in horse racing.
Journal of science and medicine in sport    August 22, 2022   Volume 25, Issue 11 918-922 doi: 10.1016/j.jsams.2022.08.008
Nylund LE, Sinclair PJ, Hitchens PL, Cobley S.To identify characteristics of jockey falls associated with high-risk landings using a modified Equestrian Fall Assessment Instrument. Methods: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Video footage of 22 flat and 58 jump racing falls (N = 80) which occurred in Great Britain, Ireland, and New Zealand from 2013 to 2018 was systematically analysed using the modified Equestrian Fall Assessment Instrument. Race, horse, and jockey-level factors, including the nature of ground contact (landings), were characterised identifying factors associated with high-risk landings. High-risk landings refer to cases ...
Multi-season transmission model of Eastern Equine Encephalitis.
PloS one    August 17, 2022   Volume 17, Issue 8 e0272130 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272130
Petrucciani A, Yu G, Ventresca M.Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is an arbovirus that, while it has been known to exist since the 1930's, recently had a spike in cases. This increased prevalence is particularly concerning due to the severity of the disease with 1 in 3 symptomatic patients dying. The cause of this peak is currently unknown but could be due to changes in climate, the virus itself, or host behavior. In this paper we propose a novel multi-season deterministic model of EEE spread and its stochastic counterpart. Models were parameterized using a dataset from the Florida Department of Health with sixteen years of ...
Spatiotemporal Environmental Drivers of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus in Central Florida: Towards a Predictive Model for a Lethal Disease.
Journal of medical entomology    August 13, 2022   Volume 59, Issue 5 1805-1816 doi: 10.1093/jme/tjac113
Mundis SJ, Harrison S, Pelley D, Durand S, Ryan SJ.Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a mosquito-borne virus that affects humans and horses, with a high case fatality rate in both species. The virus can be transmitted by several mosquito species and maintained in multiple reservoir hosts, making EEEV dynamics difficult to anticipate. In this study, we identified spatial and temporal factors that precede EEEV detection using sentinel chicken surveillance data from Orange County, Florida, from 2003 to 2017. We first examined the land cover and mosquito species composition associated with sentinel chicken sites. We then fit distributed l...
Infrared spectroscopy of serum fails to identify early biomarker changes in an equine model of traumatic osteoarthritis.
Osteoarthritis and cartilage open    August 8, 2022   Volume 4, Issue 4 100297 doi: 10.1016/j.ocarto.2022.100297
Panizzi L, Vignes M, Dittmer KE, Waterland MR, Rogers CW, Sano H, McIlwraith CW, Pemberton S, Owen M, Riley CB.to determine the accuracy of infrared (IR)-based serum biomarker profiling to differentiate horses with early inflammatory changes associated with a traumatically induced model of equine carpal osteoarthritis (OA) from controls. Methods: unilateral carpal OA was induced in 9 of 17 healthy Thoroughbred fillies, while the remainder served as sham operated controls. Serum samples were obtained before induction of OA (Day 0) and weekly thereafter until Day 63 from both groups. Films of dried serum were created, and IR absorbance spectra acquired. Following pre-processing, partial least squares dis...
Cardiac ion channel expression in the equine model – In-silico prediction utilising RNA sequencing data from mixed tissue samples.
Physiological reports    July 27, 2022   Volume 10, Issue 14 e15273 doi: 10.14814/phy2.15273
Premont A, Saadeh K, Edling C, Lewis R, Marr CM, Jeevaratnam K.Understanding cardiomyocyte ion channel expression is crucial to understanding normal cardiac electrophysiology and underlying mechanisms of cardiac pathologies particularly arrhythmias. Hitherto, equine cardiac ion channel expression has rarely been investigated. Therefore, we aim to predict equine cardiac ion channel gene expression. Raw RNAseq data from normal horses from 9 datasets was retrieved from ArrayExpress and European Nucleotide Archive and reanalysed. The normalised (FPKM) read counts for a gene in a mix of tissue were hypothesised to be the average of the expected expression in e...
Assessing the utility value of Hucul horses using classification models, based on artificial neural networks.
PloS one    July 26, 2022   Volume 17, Issue 7 e0271340 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271340
Topczewska J, Bartman J, Kwater T.The aim of this study was to evaluate factors influencing the performance of Hucul horses and to develop a prediction model, based on artificial neural (AI) networks for predict horses' classification, relying on their performance value assessment during the annual Hucul championships. The Feedforward multilayer artificial neural networks, learned using supervised methods and implemented in Matlab programming environment were applied. Artificial neural networks with one and two hidden layers with different numbers of neurons equipped with a tangensoidal transition function, learned using the L...
Machine Learning Prediction of Collagen Fiber Orientation and Proteoglycan Content From Multiparametric Quantitative MRI in Articular Cartilage.
Journal of magnetic resonance imaging : JMRI    July 21, 2022   Volume 57, Issue 4 1056-1068 doi: 10.1002/jmri.28353
Mirmojarabian SA, Kajabi AW, Ketola JHJ, Nykänen O, Liimatainen T, Nieminen MT, Nissi MJ, Casula V.Machine learning models trained with multiparametric quantitative MRIs (qMRIs) have the potential to provide valuable information about the structural composition of articular cartilage. To study the performance and feasibility of machine learning models combined with qMRIs for noninvasive assessment of collagen fiber orientation and proteoglycan content. Retrospective, animal model. An open-source single slice MRI dataset obtained from 20 samples of 10 Shetland ponies (seven with surgically induced cartilage lesions followed by treatment and three healthy controls) yielded to 1600 data points...
Increase of skin temperature prior to parturition in mares.
Theriogenology    July 19, 2022   Volume 190 46-51 doi: 10.1016/j.theriogenology.2022.07.007
Müller A, Glüge S, Vidondo B, Wróbel A, Ott T, Sieme H, Burger D.Prediction of impending foaling is highly desirable as early intervention may improve mare and foal outcomes. However, monitoring the peripartum mare is a time-consuming challenge for breeders and many foaling prediction systems have limitations. "Heating up" of the mare is empirically used by breeders as a sign of upcoming parturition in mares. The purpose of this study was to investigate if an increase in skin temperature shortly before parturition is detectable and to determine whether such physiological changes could be an additional valuable parameter to predict foaling. For that, 56 foal...
Application of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) techniques in the mid-IR (MIR) and near-IR (NIR) spectroscopy to determine n-alkane and long-chain alcohol contents in plant species and faecal samples.
Spectrochimica acta. Part A, Molecular and biomolecular spectroscopy    June 21, 2022   Volume 280 121544 doi: 10.1016/j.saa.2022.121544
Ferreira L, Machado N, Gouvinhas I, Santos S, Celaya R, Rodrigues M, Barros A.n-Alkanes and long-chain alcohols (LCOH) have been used as faecal markers to assess the feeding behaviour of both wild and domestic herbivore species. However, their chemical analysis is time-consuming and expensive, making it necessary to develop more expeditious methodologies to evaluate concentrations of these markers. This work aimed to evaluate the use of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) technology in the near infrared (NIR) and mid infrared (MIR) intervals, for the determination of n-alkane and LCOH concentrations of different plant species and faecal samples of domestic he...
Performance of predictive models of survival in horses undergoing emergency exploratory laparotomy for colic.
Veterinary surgery : VS    June 8, 2022   Volume 51, Issue 6 891-902 doi: 10.1111/vsu.13839
Bishop RC, Gutierrez-Nibeyro SD, Stewart MC, McCoy AM.To evaluate previously published predictive survival models in a population of horses undergoing colic surgery in the midwestern United States. Methods: Retrospective cohort study; single referral hospital. Methods: A total of 260 horses met the inclusion criteria. Methods: Medical records of horses undergoing surgical treatment for colic were reviewed. Previously published models were applied to cohort data to predict outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy for prediction of short-term survival were calculated. Results:...
Predictive Models for Equine Emergency Exploratory Laparotomy in Spain: Pre-, Intra-, and Post-Operative-Mortality-Associated Factors.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    May 27, 2022   Volume 12, Issue 11 1375 doi: 10.3390/ani12111375
Iglesias-García M, Rodríguez Hurtado I, Ortiz-Díez G, De la Calle Del Barrio J, Fernández Pérez C, Gómez Lucas R.The extrinsic and intrinsic characteristics of an equine population may influence the onset of gastrointestinal lesions and affect the survival rate of patients. The equine population in Spain has been the focus of a small number of studies, none of which have involved more than one surgical center. In this retrospective cohort study, we aimed to analyze the survival rate, identify the variables that influenced death, and generate multivariate models using clinical variables. Data were collected from the clinical records of two surgical referral centers in the same region, and a total of 566 h...
Body Weight Prediction from Linear Measurements of Icelandic Foals: A Machine Learning Approach.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    May 11, 2022   Volume 12, Issue 10 doi: 10.3390/ani12101234
Satoła A, Łuszczyński J, Petrych W, Satoła K.Knowledge of the body weight of horses permits breeders to provide appropriate feeding and care regimen and allows veterinarians to monitor the animals' health. It is not always possible to perform an accurate measurement of the body weight of horses using horse weighbridges, and therefore, new body weight formulas based on biometric measurements are required. The objective of this study is to develop and validate models for estimating body weight in Icelandic foals using machine learning methods. The study was conducted using 312 data records of body measurements on 24 Icelandic foals (12 col...
Predicting return to racing after repair of fractures of the metacarpal/metatarsal condyles in Thoroughbred racehorses.
Veterinary surgery : VS    May 8, 2022   Volume 51, Issue 5 753-762 doi: 10.1111/vsu.13820
Young N, Corletto F, Wright I.To identify prognostic factors for return to racing after lag screw repair of condylar fractures and develop a predictive model for return to racing. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: A total of 356 horses referred to a single referral hospital in the UK with a third metacarpal/metatarsal condylar fracture between January 1999 and December 2018. Methods: Age, sex, fracture site, fracture characteristics, surgery related variables and complications were retrieved from case records. Data were divided into two sets for model training and model validation. Univariable analyses were per...
Leveraging MRI characterization of longitudinal tears of the deep digital flexor tendon in horses using machine learning. ELKhamary AN, Keenihan EK, Schnabel LV, Redding WR, Schumacher J.While MRI is the modality of choice for the diagnosis of longitudinal tears (LTs) of the deep digital flexor tendon (DDFT) of horses, differentiating between various grades of tears based on imaging characteristics is challenging due to overlapping imaging features. In this retrospective, exploratory, diagnostic accuracy study, a machine learning (ML) scheme was applied to link quantitative features and qualitative descriptors to leverage MRI characteristics of different grades of tearing of the DDFT of horses. A qualitative MRI characteristic scheme, combining tendon morphologic features, alt...
Descriptive and Time-Series Analysis of Rabies in Different Animal Species in Mexico.
Frontiers in veterinary science    April 1, 2022   Volume 9 800735 doi: 10.3389/fvets.2022.800735
Ortega-Sánchez R, Bárcenas-Reyes I, Cantó-Alarcón GJ, Luna-Cozar J, E RA, Contreras-Magallanes YG, González-Ruiz S, Cortez-García B....The spatio-temporal epidemiology of rabies has related the influence of environmental factors and anthropogenic changes on the movements of the hematophagous bat Desmodus rotundus. In Mexico, D. rotundus is the main transmitter of the rabies virus for different livestock species, modifying annually the fluctuation of the number of cases of rabies and its dissemination in subtropical areas and regions considered free of the disease. The purpose of this study was to perform a descriptive analysis of the distribution of cases of rabies in Mexico, and to perform a time-series analysis to evaluate ...
Prediction of gestational age based on foetal ultrasonographic biometric measurements in light breed horses.
Reproduction in domestic animals = Zuchthygiene    March 31, 2022   Volume 57, Issue 7 743-753 doi: 10.1111/rda.14116
Renaudin CD, Kass PH, Bruyas JF.A table was generated, based on foetal ultrasonographic measurements in light breed mares, for each day of gestation beginning with day 100, to provide the predicted value of four biometric parameters: biparietal diameter (BPD), eye approximated volume (EyV), foetal aortic diameter (AortD) and femur length (FL). Using this table, day of gestation was successfully predicted in 23 Quarter Horses (QH) with known mating or ovulation dates. BPD, EyV and FL were the best foetal age predictors between 100- and 200-days gestation predicting within 2 weeks of the actual day of gestation, while BPD and...
Modelling the temperature suitability for the risk of West Nile Virus establishment in European Culex pipiens populations.
Transboundary and emerging diseases    March 28, 2022   Volume 69, Issue 5 e1787-e1799 doi: 10.1111/tbed.14513
Di Pol G, Crotta M, Taylor RA.Increases in temperature and extreme weather events due to global warming can create an environment that is beneficial to mosquito populations, changing and possibly increasing the suitable geographical range for many vector-borne diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is a flavivirus, maintained in a mosquito-avian host cycle that is usually asymptomatic but can cause primarily flu-like symptoms in human and equid accidental hosts. In rare circumstances, serious disease and death are possible outcomes for both humans and horses. The main European vector of WNV is the Culex pipiens mosquito. This stu...
A Pilot Observational Study of Implementing an Equine-A ssisted Services Program Within a VA Medical Center Residential Substance Use Disorder Treatment Program.
Military medicine    March 1, 2022   usac028 doi: 10.1093/milmed/usac028
Marchand WR, Joubert K, Smith J, Nazarenko E, Klinger W, Sheppard S, Hoopes KH.The aim of this observational pilot study was to assess the safety, feasibility, preliminary outcomes, and predictors of participant response as a result of implementing an equine-assisted intervention within a residential substance abuse treatment program at a large Veterans Administration medical center. A secondary aim was to evaluate psychological instruments for use in future, more rigorous studies. The overarching goal was to complete the necessary work to prepare for a large randomized controlled trial of this intervention for Veterans with addictive disorders. Methods: Participants wer...
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