Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Alexeenko V, Tavanaeimanesh H, Stein F, Gold J, Hughes L, McCue M, Marr C, Durward-Akhurst S, Jeevaratnam K.Cardiac arrhythmias are common in healthy athletic horses and may lead to poor athletic performance or exercise-associated sudden death. Early detection of high-risk horses is an important goal of cardiovascular diagnostics. We hypothesised that non-linear analysis of electrocardiogram disorderliness can be used to identify horses exhibiting intermittent ectopic atrial and ventricular heart rhythm abnormalities at exercise using brief, artifact-free recordings of normal sinus rhythm electrocardiograms collected at submaximal heart rates. In a convenience prospective cross-sectional study, ambu...
Hall NP, Sweeney DM, Holmströem M, Kim W, Wang Y, Donahue KD, Palmer SE, Lambert DH, Bayly WM.To determine whether targeted lesion-specific algorithms developed from data collected with accelerometer-based inertial measurement units worn by racing Thoroughbreds could retrospectively identify horses at high risk of incurring forelimb condylar or proximal sesamoid fractures. Unassigned: Fracture-specific algorithms were generated from July 2021 to December 2024 with accelerometer data from 42,623 races by 15,755 horses, including 54 races by 23 horses that subsequently suffered condylar fractures and 90 races by 31 horses that later sustained proximal sesamoid fractures. Fracture-specifi...
Cabaret J, Guerrero Molina C, MartÃnez-Ortiz-de Montellano C, Alcala Canto Y.Faecal egg counts (FECs) are used to assess the intensity of gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) infections in herbivores. FEC distribution is aggregated, meaning that approximately 20% of animals harbour 80% of infections. In times of escalating anthelmintic resistance, it may be necessary to restrict treatment to the animals with the heaviest infections. This strategy is called targeted selective treatment (TST) and is relevant to GIN, for example. The difficulty lies in identifying which animals to treat. One solution is to select potentially at-risk animals based on age (for example, treating ...
Tyrnenopoulou P, Flouraki E, Folias L, Loukopoulos E, Starras A, Chalvatzis P, Tsioli V, Mavrogianni VS, Fthenakis GC.The objectives of this work were (i) to evaluate the incidence of complications in male horses after orchiectomy performed in the field, i.e., away from a veterinary hospital, (ii) to describe the post-operative complications that occurred in these animals and (iii) to study the potential predictors for the development of such complications. This study involved 612 animals, on which orchiectomy was performed. The operative part of the study was carried out by one of three experienced veterinary surgeons. Standard pre-operative procedures were followed. Orchiectomy was performed using one of th...
Lopes A, Aitkin E, Louro LF.Post-anaesthetic colic (PAC) is a complication in horses undergoing general anaesthesia (GA). Various preoperative feeding strategies are used in equine practice, yet their impact on PAC remains unclear. Objective: To identify perioperative risk factors associated with PAC and evaluate the influence of preoperative fasting on PAC prevalence and faecal output. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Medical records of horses undergoing non-abdominal surgery under GA were reviewed. Horses were categorised into fasted and non-fasted groups based on their pre-anaesthetic feeding regimen. Mul...
Mudge M.Morbidity after equine abdominal surgery is common and post-operative complications can be costly to owners. The focus of this article is on intraoperative decision-making and current evidence, including surgical techniques and prognostic information that can prevent and predict complications. Emerging techniques for intra-operative monitoring and intestinal viability assessment, anastomotic techniques, body wall suturing, peritonitis treatment, and pain management are discussed.
Mc Sweeney D, Wang Y, Palmer SE, Holmströem M, Donohue KD, Farnsworth KD, Sanz MG, Lambert DH, Bayly WM.To determine whether screening of racing Thoroughbreds with accelerometer-based inertial measurement unit sensors and a specifically trained algorithm identified horses most at risk for fatal musculoskeletal injury (FMI) and whether age, gender, race distance, and track surface were associated with increased risk. Unassigned: Stride data from 28,481 races by 11,834 Thoroughbreds from July 25, 2021, until May 4, 2024, were assigned an algorithm-based risk score from 1 to 6 (6 = greatest risk). Logistic regression models examined the association between incidence of fatal injuries and risk score...
Samuels AN, Collins NM, Hanlon K, Bartish C, Kelly P, Kamr AM, Toribio RE.Early and accurate identification of septicemia in neonatal foals improves survival. In human medicine, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio (NMR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) aid in early bacteremia detection. This study evaluated the diagnostic utility of these markers in conjunction with other clinical and hematological parameters in hospitalized foals < 5 days old to predict positive blood culture at admission and to distinguish between Gram-positive, Gram-negative, or polymicrobial bacteremia. A total of 391 foal...
Fehin B, Scott CJ, Arango-Sabogal JC, de Mestre AM, Mouncey R.To date, relationships between pre-covering endometrial swab cytology and bacteriology and fertility outcomes in Thoroughbred broodmares in the United Kingdom are unknown and could aid clinical decision making. Objective: To investigate associations between cytology and bacteriology findings from the last endometrial swab taken in the breeding season (15 February to 15 July) and live-foal rates (predicted mean probability of producing a live foal) in UK Thoroughbred broodmares. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Endometrial cytology and bacteriology findings were extracted from labo...
Turcotte G, O'Sullivan TL, Rossi TM, Spence KL, Winder CB, Greer AL.Horses are frequently transported, creating opportunities for the spread of pathogens. Disease transmission models for equine infectious diseases face limitations on their generalizability due to challenges in describing equine movement and the structure of their contact networks beyond simplistic assumptions. This study aimed to combine a stochastic, agent-based, SEIR model for equine influenza disease dynamics with an observed Ontario, Canada equine contact network structure to quantify the potential magnitude of equine influenza outbreaks in Ontario competition horses under different condit...
Freitag GP, de Lima LGF, Kozicki LE, Souza FA, Nogueira E, Ribeiro LB.This study investigated the influence of morphometric characteristics on performance in Quarter Horses competing in barrel racing. Methods: A total of 125 horses were assessed using 28 linear and angular body measurements derived from standardized left-side photographs captured via smartphone and analyzed with open-source software. Results: Measurements were subjected to exploratory factor analysis, extracting six principal components (forequarters, hindquarters, midsection, posterior angles, scapular traits, age and weight), which together explained 83.0 % of the morphological variance. Foreq...
Crosby CE, O'Connor A, Munsterman AS.Colic is a significant source of morbidity and mortality in horses, and no single biomarker can distinguish surgical from medical colic or predict mortality. Alactic base excess (ABE) has shown an association with mortality and renal insufficiency in humans but has not been evaluated in veterinary species. The purpose of this study was to determine the value of ABE as a diagnostic tool for horses treated for gastrointestinal disease. Unassigned: This retrospective case series evaluated horses admitted for acute gastrointestinal disease over a 5-year period (2019-2024). Signalment, physical exa...
Sohn Y, An SJ, Forbes E, Yoon J, Kim BS, Kim JG, Ryu SH.To model lactate recovery kinetics in relation to sex, age, running speed, and racing experience, and to estimate blood lactate clearance time under passive recovery conditions that reflect current management practices in Jeju horses, a less well-characterized pony-sized indigenous breed. Unassigned: From October through December 2022, BLC was measured at baseline, 10 minutes after 800-m barrier trials (time [T]-1), and 50 minutes (T2) after 800-m barrier trials in 40 race-trained Jeju horses (2 to 4 years old). Lactate clearance was modeled using nonlinear regression with an exponential decay...
Shaffer SK, Medjaouri O, Swenson B, Eliason T, Nicolella DP.The ability to quantify equine kinematics is essential for clinical evaluation, research, and performance feedback. However, current methods are challenging to implement. This study presents a motion capture methodology for horses, where three-dimensional, full-body kinematics are calculated without instrumentation on the animal, offering a more scalable and labor-efficient approach when compared with traditional techniques. Kinematic trajectories are calculated from multi-camera video data. First, a neural network identifies skeletal landmarks (markers) in each camera view and the 3D location...
Corbally AF, Mulligan FJ, Sweeney T, Fahey AG.This study examines the associations between linearly scored phenotypic traits and auction sales prices of young event horses in Ireland, aiming to identify key traits influencing market value. Data from 307 horses sold at public auctions (2022-2023) were analysed using regression analysis, binary optimisation, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Regression identified Head-neck Connection, Quality of Legs, Walk length of Stride, and Scope as highly significant predictors of sales price ( < 0.001), with Length of Croup, Trot Elasticity, Trot Balance, and Take-off Direction also significa...
Gomes C, Coheur L, Tilley P.Equine asthma is a prevalent respiratory disease that negatively impacts horses' health and athletic performance. Traditional diagnostic methods are invasive and require specialised equipment. There is a need for a non-invasive, cost-effective screening tool that can be used by veterinarians and horse handlers in ambulatory settings. Objective: To assess the willingness of veterinarians and horse handlers to adopt such a tool (Questionnaire 1) and the challenges associated with visually recognising equine asthma (Questionnaire 2) and to develop EquiBreathe, an artificial intelligence (AI)-powe...
McGlennon AA, Verheyen KL, Newton JR, van Tonder A, Wilson H, Parkhill J, de Brauwere N, Frosth S, Waller AS.Strangles (Streptococcus equi infection) remains endemic in the UK, with ~300 laboratory diagnoses annually. Sub-clinically infected long-term carriers are considered a key driver of endemicity. Analysing genomes of circulating strains could provide valuable transmission insights of this pathogen. Objective: To determine the population structure and diversity of UK S. equi isolates and to model transmission using epidemiological and whole genome sequencing data. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional epidemiological and genomic surveillance. Methods: A dated phylogenetic tree derived from 511â...
Chodkiewicz A, Prończuk M, Studnicki M.In order to understand the role of horses in ecosystems and to effectively use their grazing in the protection of grasslands, it is important to assess where they primarily stay, followed by whether these habitats are used for grazing or resting. The main goal of the study was the model development based on artificial intelligence tools which allow to distinguish the basic levels of activity performed by horses using data from an accelerometer mounted in a collar worn by animals. The model calibration was based on direct observations of five randomly selected Polish primitive horse mares. In o...
Gobbo E, Topal O, Novalija I, Mladenić D, Zupan Šemrov M.This study extends previous findings by applying artificial intelligence (AI) methods to a larger dataset to identify key features that predict fear reactivity (i.e., immediate reaction to fear inducing stimuli) and fearfulness (i.e., a stable personality trait) in 101 Lipizzan horses. The analysis included 221 morphological, kinematic, behavioral and management measurements per horse. Previous findings were confirmed, as body and head size were identified as promising predictors of aspects of fear-related trait. Using an iterative AI approach, six key features for fear reactivity and nine for...
Andueza D, Martin-Rosset W.The nutritive value of forage for horses is closely dependent on the digestibility of organic matter (OMD), which is typically measured in vivo. Researchers have developed a variety of prediction methods to estimate the digestibility value of hay. In ruminants, pepsin-cellulase degradability, expressed as dry matter enzymatic degradability (dCS) and organic matter enzymatic degradability (dCO), is a commonly employed method for predicting OMD in forage types. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of predicting the dry matter digestibility (DMD), OMD, energy digestibility ...
Kuroda T, Minamijima Y, Niwa H, Mita H, Nomura M, Ohta M.A pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) approach was used to determine the dosage regimens of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections after intravenous (IV) and per os (PO) administration in horses. Methods: Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole plasma concentrations were measured in six horses after a single IV administration of 15 mg/kg (2.5 mg/kg trimethoprim and 12.5 mg/kg sulfamethoxazole) and PO administration of 30 mg/kg (5.0 mg/kg trimethoprim and 25.0 mg/kg sulfamethoxazole). The data were modeled using a nonlinear mixed-effects mode...
Kelemen Z, Vogl C, Torres Borda L, Auer U, Jenner F.Clinical care for patients with limited life expectancy often requires adjustments, prioritizing immediate benefits over long-term outcomes, as the relevance of future complications diminishes. This study identifies indicators of mortality risk in horses with chronic orthopaedic conditions to enhance individualized care and welfare. Over 3Â years, 123 chronically lame horses and 6 healthy control horses at an animal sanctuary underwent regular (every 3Â months) comprehensive health assessments and activity monitoring using wearable sensors. Data collected included body condition scores, muscul...
Liedtke AM, Meijer H, Horstmann S, von Reitzenstein C, Rump I, Kirsch K.Eventing is an Olympic equestrian discipline comprising dressage, cross-country, and show jumping, with the cross-country phase imposing the greatest physical demands on horses. This study presents a composite model to estimate energy expenditure during the cross-country phase, integrating physiological data (heart rate-derived VO2 and lactate-based anaerobic estimates) with external workload indicators (GPS-derived speed, elevation, and course complexity). Model development was based on 691 rides from 256 horses across 232 events at 2-star to 5-star competition levels. The analysis showed tha...
Lai CS, Wong ASY, Wong KS, Wan TSM, Ho ENM.In the screening of prohibited substances (PS) in horse biological samples with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS) for doping control, an enormous number of chromatograms are generated. Reviewing these chromatograms to identify suspicious findings requires an extensive manual effort. Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) enable its use to classify images into different categories. This can potentially be utilized to perform first-line analysis of chromatograms, which are usually displayed as images, by classifying them...
Donovan K, Torres J, Zhu D, Herrington WG, Staplin N.Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of disease progression are vulnerable to collider bias caused by selection of participants with disease at study entry. This bias introduces spurious associations between disease progression and genetic variants that are truly only associated with disease incidence. Methods of statistical adjustment to reduce this bias have been published, but rely on assumptions regarding the genetic correlation of disease incidence and disease progression which are likely to be violated in many human diseases. MR-Horse is a recently published Bayesian method to estimate...
Duaso J, Perez-Ecija A, MartÃnez E, Navarro A, De Las Heras A, Mendoza FJ.Equine piroplasmosis (EP) is a tick-borne disease affecting equids worldwide. Diagnosis is based on direct methods (blood smear or PCR) or indirect methods (serology); however, these techniques yield positive and negative results. Thus, an alternative, reliable, rapid, and cost-effective complementary tool, such as hematologic parameters and newly described hematologic ratios, could help in the EP diagnosis. This study describes the changes induced by piroplasmosis infection on hematologic parameters and ratios in horses. PCR-positive horses exhibited anemia and thrombocytopenia, whereas PCR...
Ziadi C, Valera M, Laseca N, Perdomo-González D, Demyda-Peyrás S, de Los Terreros AR, Molina A. By simultaneously integrating both genotyped and non-genotyped animals into genetic evaluation, the single-step genomic BLUP method enhanced the accuracy of genetic assessments. This study aimed to compare the increase in prediction reliability (R) between restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and single-step genomic REML (ssGREML) in the Pura Raza Española (PRE) horse breed. The dataset comprised reproductive records for seven fertility traits from 47,502 females, with a total of 57,316 animals represented in the pedigree. A total of 4009 animals were genotyped using the EQUIGENE 90K SNP ar...
Renaudin CD, Picandet V, Kass PH.Using the equation of Hartwig et al. and the table established for light breed horses, day of gestation was predicted in 108 Warmblood (WB) and 59 racehorses (Thoroughbred [TB] and Standardbred [STB]) pregnant mares. In WB, gestational ages were predicted within 2 weeks from 100 to 200 days of gestation using biparietal diameter (BPD), aortic diameter (AortD) or femur length (FL); within 2 weeks from 100 to 250 days using BPD or AortD; within 2 weeks from 100 to 300 days using BPD alone; and within 3 weeks from 100 to 350 days using eye approximated volume (EyV) alone. In the ...
Nabenishi H, Tsuda T, Omoya Y, Ishii T.This study aimed to detect characteristic changes in the behavior and body surface temperature (BST) of pregnant mares before parturition using camera image analysis. A total of 53 pregnant Thoroughbred mares, which were individually stabled in box stalls, were included in this study. The mares were continuously monitored using a digital camera system comprising a thermal imaging camera and a visible camera. For the automatic determination of the x and y coordinates of each mare, the centroid of the mares was calculated using image processing software. Subsequently, trajectory analysis was per...
Carroll CL, Huntington PJ.Three hundred and seventy two horses of varying breeds, height and fatness were weighed and measured for height at the withers. They were assessed for condition score by adaptation of a previously published method. The heart girth and length of 281 of the horses were also measured. Weight of horses was highly correlated (P less than 0.001) with height (r2 = 0.62), condition score (r2 = 0.22) and girth2 x length (r2 = 0.90). Nomograms were constructed to predict weight from height and condition score, and girth and length measurements. Weight can also be accurately estimated from the formula: (...
Kohn RA, Dinneen MM, Russek-Cohen E.The objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential for using blood urea N concentration to predict urinary N excretion rate, and to develop a mathematical model to estimate important variables of N utilization for several different species of farm animals and for rats. Treatment means (n = 251) from 41 research publications were used to develop mathematical relationships. There was a strong linear relationship between blood urea N concentration (mg/100 mL) and rate of N excretion (g x d(-1) x kg BW(-1)) for all animal species investigated. The N clearance rate of the kidney (L of bloo...
Ahern BJ, Parvizi J, Boston R, Schaer TP.Review the literature for single site cartilage defect research and evaluate the respective strengths and weaknesses of different preclinical animal models. Methods: A literature search for animal models evaluating single site cartilage defects was performed. Variables tabulated and analyzed included animal species, age and number, defect depth and diameter and study duration. Cluster analyses were then used to separate animals with only distal femoral defects into similar groups based on defect dimensions. Representative human studies were included allowing comparison of common clinical lesio...
Carter RA, Treiber KH, Geor RJ, Douglass L, Harris PA.The ability to predict ponies at increased risk of laminitic episodes, when exposed to nutrient dense pasture, would facilitate management to avoid disease. Objective: To identify variables and clinically useful cut-off values with reproducible diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of ponies that subsequently developed laminitis when exposed to nutrient dense pasture. Methods: A cohort of predominantly Welsh and Dartmoor ponies from a closed herd was evaluated in March 2006 (n = 74) and March 2007 (n = 57). Ponies were categorised as never laminitic or previously laminitic according to report...
McGowan TW, Pinchbeck GP, McGowan CM.Equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) is an ageing-related neurodegenerative disorder. The prevalence and risk factors for PPID using seasonally adjusted basal adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) concentrations in aged horses have not been previously reported. Objective: To determine the prevalence, risk factors and clinical signs predictive for PPID in a population of horses aged ≥ 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Methods: Owner-reported data was obtained using a postal questionnaire distributed to an equestrian group. A subgroup of surveyed owners were visited and a veterina...
Minetti AE.By refining a previously published model, a simple equation for the estimation of the mechanical internal work during locomotion is presented. The only input variables are the progression speed, the stride frequency and the duty factor, i.e. the fraction of the stride duration at which a foot is in contact with the ground. The inclusion of this last variable, easily measurable, allows to obtain a single equation for both walking and running. The model predictions have been compared with the mechanical internal work experimentally obtained on humans in several conditions: speeds (range 0.8-3.3 ...
Bisanzio D, Giacobini M, Bertolotti L, Mosca A, Balbo L, Kitron U, Vazquez-Prokopec GM.West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission in Italy was first reported in 1998 as an equine outbreak near the swamps of Padule di Fucecchio, Tuscany. No other cases were identified during the following decade until 2008, when horse and human outbreaks were reported in Emilia Romagna, North Italy. Since then, WNV outbreaks have occurred annually, spreading from their initial northern foci throughout the country. Following the outbreak in 1998 the Italian public health authority defined a surveillance plan to detect WNV circulation in birds, horses and mosquitoes. By applying spatial statistical analysi...
Roy MF, Kwong GP, Lambert J, Massie S, Lockhart S.Despite its widespread use in equine medicine, the clinical value of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) concept in horses remains unknown. Objective: To study the prognostic value of measures of SIRS in horses and identify the best model of severe SIRS to predict outcome. Methods: A total of 479 consecutive adult horse emergency admissions to a private primary referral practice. Methods: Prospective observational study. All adult horses admitted for emergency treatment over the study period were included. Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise model selection were used. ...
Chang MH, Kim KH, Kim HS, Jun HJ, Kim DH, Jang JH, Kim K, Jung CW.Immunosuppressive therapy (IST) with antithymocyte globulin (ATG) plus cyclosporine (CSA) is standard therapy in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) who do not have an available HLA-matched sibling donor. Methods: The current study aimed to determine the predictive factors for response to IST in patients with SAA and to identify prognostic factors following IST. A total of 62 patients diagnosed with SAA who received IST with either rabbit ATG (n = 33) or horse ATG (n = 29) plus CSA between October 1994 and December 2007 were included. Results: With a median follow-up duration of 60.5 mo...
Conte A, Candeloro L, Ippoliti C, Monaco F, De Massis F, Bruno R, Di Sabatino D, Danzetta ML, Benjelloun A, Belkadi B, El Harrak M, Declich S....West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habit...
Colenbrander B, Gadella BM, Stout TA.Pregnancy rates in managed horse populations depend on the innate fertility of the mares and stallions involved and on the quality of breeding management. Of course, because a single stallion usually mates many mares, stallion fertility is a critical factor in the overall success of a breeding program. Unfortunately, accurate evaluation of stallion fertility per se requires a large number of normal mares to be mated and is necessarily retrospective. Rather, the ideal is to predict fertility in advance of the stallion's breeding career, and this is currently attempted by way of a thorough physi...
Pfau T, Stubbs NC, Kaiser LJ, Brown LE, Clayton HM.To determine whether body lean angle could be predicted from circle radius and speed in horses during lunging and whether an increase in that angle would decrease the degree of movement symmetry (MS). Methods: 11 medium- to high-level dressage horses in competition training. Methods: Body lean angle, head MS, and trunk MS were quantified during trotting while horses were instrumented with a 5-sensor global positioning system-enhanced inertial sensor system and lunged on a soft surface. Speed and circle radius were varied and used to calculate predicted body lean angle. Agreement between observ...
Avella CS, Ely ER, Verheyen KL, Price JS, Wood JL, Smith RK.It is important to ascertain the prevalence of superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injuries and to improve methods of predicting injury in National Hunt (NH) racehorses. Objective: To establish: 1) the prevalence of SDFT tendinopathy in NH horses; 2) whether routine ultrasonography can be used to predict SDFT injuries; 3) whether previous tendinopathy predisposes to reinjury; 4) a normal range for the SDFT cross-sectional area (CSA); and 5) the effects of gender, age, background (ex-flat or ex-store), limb, training and rest periods on SDFT CSA. Methods: Routine ultrasound assessment of t...
Brown DJ, Rush JE, MacGregor J, Ross JN, Brewer B, Rand WM.A novel method for quantitative echocardiographic interpretations is introduced based on the calculation of ratio indices in which each raw M-mode measurement is divided by the aortic root dimension (Ao). "Aorta-based" indices were calculated with the animal's measured aortic root dimension (Ao(m)) as the length standard. Conversely, "weight-based" indices employed an idealized estimate of aortic dimension (Ao(w)) with a weighted least squares linear regression against the cube root of body weight (Ao(w) = kW(1/3)). Use of these indices circumvented undesirable statistical characteristics inhe...
Tan H, Wilson AM.Manoeuverability is a key requirement for successful terrestrial locomotion, especially on variable terrain, and is a deciding factor in predator-prey interaction. Compared with straight-line running, bend running requires additional leg force to generate centripetal acceleration. In humans, this results in a reduction in maximum speed during bend running and a published model assuming maximum limb force as a constraint accurately predicts how much a sprinter must slow down on a bend given his maximum straight-line speed. In contrast, greyhounds do not slow down or change stride parameters dur...
GarcÃa-Carrasco JM, Muñoz AR, Olivero J, Segura M, Real R.West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018...
Dugdale AH, Grove-White D, Curtis GC, Harris PA, Argo CM.Body condition scoring systems were originally developed to quantify flesh cover in food animals and are commonly used to evaluate body fat in Equidae. The relationship between concurrent estimates of body fat content (eTBF%, deuterium oxide dilution; range, 2.7-35.6%) and subjective appraisals of body 'fatness' (body condition score, BCS; range, 1.25-9/9), was investigated in 77 mature horses and ponies. Univariate (UVM, r(2)=0.79) and multivariable (MVM, r(2)=0.86) linear regression models described the association, where BCS and eTBF% were explanatory and outcome variables, respectively. Ot...
Harrison SM, Whitton RC, Kawcak CE, Stover SM, Pandy MG.The equine metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint is frequently injured, especially by racehorses in training. Most injuries result from repetitive loading of the subchondral bone and articular cartilage rather than from acute events. The likelihood of injury is multi-factorial but the magnitude of mechanical loading and the number of loading cycles are believed to play an important role. Therefore, an important step in understanding injury is to determine the distribution of load across the articular surface during normal locomotion. A subject-specific finite-element model of the MCP joint was devel...
Barker CM, Reisen WK, Kramer VL.The California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan recently was developed to provide a semi-quantitative means for assessing risk for western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) or St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses and to provide intervention guidelines for mosquito control and public health agencies during periods of heightened risk for human infection. West Nile virus recently has arrived in California, and the response plan also will provide a baseline for assessing the risk for human and equine infection with this virus. In the response plan, overall risk is calculated by ave...
Ishihara A, Reed SM, Rajala-Schultz PJ, Robertson JT, Bertone AL.To evaluate use of kinetic gait analysis for detection, quantification, and differentiation of hind limb lameness and spinal ataxia in horses. Methods: Prospective clinical study. Methods: 36 horses. Procedures-Kinetic gait analysis with a force plate was performed for 12 clinically normal horses, 12 horses with hind limb lameness, and 12 horses with spinal ataxia. Kinetic variables were compared among groups, correlated to subjective grading, and used to build predictive models to assess the accuracy of discrimination. Results: Subsets of kinetic variables were characteristically altered in a...
Toutain PL, Autefage A, Legrand C, Alvinerie M.The purpose of the present study was to establish in the horse the relationship between plasma concentration profiles of phenylbutazone (PBZ) and flunixin meglumine (FM) and their pharmacological effects in order to build a predictive pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model. In five horses, an experimental arthritis was induced by injecting Freund's adjuvant into a carpal joint. PBZ (4 mg/kg) and FM (1 mg/kg) were injected by the intravenous route as a single intravenous dose in two different trials. Five pharmacodynamic end-points were regularly measured after test article injection usi...
Boemer F, Detilleux J, Cello C, Amory H, Marcillaud-Pitel C, Richard E, van Galen G, van Loon G, Lefère L, Votion DM.Equine atypical myopathy (AM) is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased a...
Mughini-Gras L, Mulatti P, Severini F, Boccolini D, Romi R, Bongiorno G, Khoury C, Bianchi R, Montarsi F, Patregnani T, Bonfanti L, Rezza G....In Italy, West Nile virus (WNV) equine outbreaks have occurred annually since 2008. Characterizing WNV vector habitat requirements allows for the identification of areas at risk of viral amplification and transmission. Maxent-based ecological niche models were developed using literature records of 13 potential WNV Italian vector mosquito species to predict their habitat suitability range and to investigate possible geographical associations with WNV equine outbreak occurrence in Italy from 2008 to 2010. The contribution of different environmental variables to the niche models was also assessed...
Rochais C, Fureix C, Lesimple C, Hausberger M.Chronic pain is thought to affect patients' cognitive functioning, including attention. Loss of attention is likely to have an impact on the execution of daily tasks, and, therefore, to have negative effects. However, relationships between chronic pain and cognitive deficits are still debated. Pre-clinical studies using laboratory animals prove useful to model pain-related cognitive impairment, but animal models had to predict effects in the real world. This study investigates attentional engagement of domestic horses by comparing observations in a home setting and evaluations of vertebral dis...
Furr MO, Lessard P, White NA.Thirty-two physical examination and laboratory variables were recorded during examination of 165 horses admitted for acute abdominal disease. Univariate analyses were performed to determine which of the variables were significantly different between horses that lived or died. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to identify variables with the best predictive value. Four variables (heart rate, peritoneal fluid total protein concentration, blood lactate concentration, and abnormal mucous membrane) remained significant when entered into the model. Histograms for each significant variable we...
Sarin JK, Te Moller NCR, Mancini IAD, Brommer H, Visser J, Malda J, van Weeren PR, Afara IO, Töyräs J.Arthroscopic assessment of articular tissues is highly subjective and poorly reproducible. To ensure optimal patient care, quantitative techniques (e.g., near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS)) could substantially enhance arthroscopic diagnosis of initial signs of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA). Here, we demonstrate, for the first time, the potential of arthroscopic NIRS to simultaneously monitor progressive degeneration of cartilage and subchondral bone in vivo in Shetland ponies undergoing different experimental cartilage repair procedures. Osteochondral tissues adjacent to the repair sites...
Morrell JM, Johannisson A, Dalin AM, Hammar L, Sandebert T, Rodriguez-Martinez H.Artificial insemination is not as widely used in horses as in other domestic species, such as dairy cattle and pigs, partly because of the wide variation in sperm quality between stallion ejaculates and partly due to decreased fertility following the use of cooled transported spermatozoa. Furthermore, predictive tests for sperm fertilising ability are lacking. The objective of the present study was to assess sperm morphology and chromatin integrity in ejaculates obtained from 11 warmblood breeding stallions in Sweden, and to evaluate the relationship of these parameters to pregnancy rates to i...
Hoffman AM, Staempfli HR, Willan A.The costly nature of intensive care for neonatal foals prompted a study of predictive variables for survival in a referral hospital. Applying stepforward logistic regression to parameters that differed significantly (P less than 0.10) between survivors (S) and nonsurvivors (NS) in a retrospective study (n = 56), two variables retained statistical significance [anion gap (AG, P = 0.0047) and venous PO2 (PvO2, P = 0.0342)], thus forming the basis for a predictive equation for survival: the Pn (probability of NS) = eA/(1 + eA) where A = -1.46 - 0.107 (PvO2) + 0.213 (AG). The predictive equation w...
Larison B, Pinho GM, Haghani A, Zoller JA, Li CZ, Finno CJ, Farrell C, Kaelin CB, Barsh GS, Wooding B, Robeck TR, Maddox D, Pellegrini M, Horvath S.Effective conservation and management of threatened wildlife populations require an accurate assessment of age structure to estimate demographic trends and population viability. Epigenetic aging models are promising developments because they estimate individual age with high accuracy, accurately predict age in related species, and do not require invasive sampling or intensive long-term studies. Using blood and biopsy samples from known age plains zebras (Equus quagga), we model epigenetic aging using two approaches: the epigenetic clock (EC) and the epigenetic pacemaker (EPM). The plains zebra...
Lane EA, Bijnen ML, Osborne M, More SJ, Henderson IS, Duffy P, Crowe MA.To evaluate factors contributing to fertility of thoroughbred mares, data from 3743 oestrous periods of 2385 mares were collected on a large thoroughbred farm in Ireland. Fourteen stallions (mean age 8.3 years; range 4-15 years) had bred 2385 mares (mean age 9.4 years; range 3-24 years). Maiden mares accounted for 12%, mares with a foal at foot for 64%, and barren, slipped or rested mares for 24% of the total. The mean pregnancy rate per cycle was 67.8% (68.6% in year 1 and 66.9% in year 2). Backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was utilized to develop two models to eval...
