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Topic:Predictive Model

Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
From Prediction to Precision: Explainable AI-Driven Insights for Targeted Treatment in Equine Colic.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    January 8, 2025   Volume 15, Issue 2 doi: 10.3390/ani15020126
Cetintav B, Yalcin A.Colic is a leading cause of mortality in horses, demanding precise and timely interventions. This study integrates machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to predict survival outcomes in horses with colic, using clinical, procedural, and diagnostic data. Random forest and XGBoost emerged as top-performing models, achieving F1 scores of 85.9% and 86.1%, respectively. SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) was employed to provide interpretable insights, offering both global and local explanations for model predictions. The analysis revealed that key features, such as pulse r...
Single-Step Genome-Wide Association Study of Factors for Evaluated and Linearly Scored Traits in Swedish Warmblood Horses.
Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie    January 4, 2025   Volume 142, Issue 5 499-512 doi: 10.1111/jbg.12923
Nazari-Ghadikolaei A, Fikse WF, Viklund ÅG, Mikko S, Eriksson S.Swedish Warmblood horses (SWB) are bred for show jumping and/or dressage with young horse test scores as indicator traits. This study aimed to investigate possible candidate genes and regions of importance for evaluated and linearly scored young horse test traits. A single-step genome-wide association study (ssGWAS) was done using the BLUPF90 suite of programs for factors scores from factor analysis of traits assessed at young horse tests together with height at withers. The ssGWAS included 20,814 SWB with factors scores for four factors for evaluated traits. A total of 6436 of these horses al...
Factors associated with the selling price of sport horses in public auctions in Ireland.
Journal of equine veterinary science    January 3, 2025   105347 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105347
Corbally AF, Fahey AG.Sale prices at auction significantly impact the economic return of sport horse production. This study aimed to determine factors associated with auction sales prices of sport horses at four maturity stages: foals, juveniles, young horses, and older horses. A total of 42,799 sales records from 2003 to 2022 were obtained from two Irish equine auction companies. A univariate regression model was used, and significant variables underwent multivariate analysis. Within each maturity category, factors associated with above-mean-priced horses differed from those associated with below-mean-priced horse...
Real-time transrectal ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal eye (vitreous body) to predict parturition in bucking horse mares.
Journal of equine veterinary science    January 3, 2025   Volume 145 105345 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105345
Gonzalez SW, Espy BMK, Stefanovski D, Turner RM.Monitoring gestation and predicting parturition in mares with unknown breeding dates is challenging, especially in pasture bred herds of bucking horses. Transrectal ultrasonographic measurement of fetal vitreous body length is a validated predictor of foaling dates, but previous research suggested a need for breed-specific parameters to develop accurate indices for respective breeds. This study aimed to develop a scale associating fetal vitreous body length with days before parturition (DBP) in bucking horses. Biannual data collection over 2 years identified 199 pregnancies out of 240 reproduc...
Rising trends of inbreeding in Japanese Thoroughbred horses.
Journal of equine science    December 12, 2024   Volume 35, Issue 4 57-61 doi: 10.1294/jes.35.57
Watanabe M, Sato F, Innan H.We investigated the changes in inbreeding levels in Japanese Thoroughbred horses over the past 46 years. Our results show a significant increase in inbreeding over the past 30 years, primarily due to the influence of two sires, Northern Dancer and Sunday Silence. Northern Dancer's bloodline spread gradually through descendants like Northern Taste, leading to a slower increase in the inbreeding coefficient. In contrast, Sunday Silence was directly imported and became a leading sire, causing a rapid increase in his blood proportion and inbreeding coefficient. Our findings suggest that monitoring...
Assessment of horse behavior using an activity monitoring device used for cats and dogs.
Journal of equine science    December 12, 2024   Volume 35, Issue 4 47-55 doi: 10.1294/jes.35.47
Matsubara T, Fukatsu R, Yamamoto M, Moriya M, Hano K, Nakamura K, Ohba Y, Takasu M.Including Internet of Things (IoT) technology in horse-rearing management can potentially mitigate problems such as human resource shortages and time limitations in performing daily behavior monitoring. In this study, a small and inexpensive activity meter used to monitor dogs and cats (PLUS CYCLE, JARMeC, Kanagawa, Japan) was used to monitor the daily behavior of horses. A study was performed to examine the suitability of the PLUS CYCLE device for monitoring horses and to determine whether it could estimate horse behavior. The device was equipped with an accelerometer and was used to monitor ...
Sleeping and Eating Behavior Recognition of Horses Based on an Improved SlowFast Network.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)    December 5, 2024   Volume 24, Issue 23 7791 doi: 10.3390/s24237791
Liu Y, Zhou F, Zheng W, Bai T, Chen X, Guo L.The sleeping and eating behaviors of horses are important indicators of their health. With the development of the modern equine industry, timely monitoring and analysis of these behaviors can provide valuable data for assessing the physiological state of horses. To recognize horse behaviors in stalls, this study builds on the SlowFast algorithm, introducing a novel loss function to address data imbalance and integrating an SE attention module in the SlowFast algorithm's slow pathway to enhance behavior recognition accuracy. Additionally, YOLOX is employed to replace the original target detecti...
Horse Diagnosis and Triage Accuracy of GPT-4o.
Studies in health technology and informatics    November 22, 2024   Volume 321 200-204 doi: 10.3233/SHTI241092
Haase L, Monett D, Sedlmayr M.Animal owners may increasingly rely on large language models for gathering animal health information alongside internet sources in the future. This study therefore aims to provide initial results on the accuracy of ChatGPT-4o in triage and tentative diagnostics, using horses as a case study. Ten test vignettes were used to prompt situation assessments from the tool, which were then compared to original assessments made by a veterinary specialist for horses. The most probable diagnosis suggested by ChatGPT-4o was found to be quite accurate in most cases, with the urgency to contact a veterinari...
A machine learning approach to identify stride characteristics predictive of musculoskeletal injury, enforced rest and retirement in Thoroughbred racehorses.
Scientific reports    November 22, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 1 28967 doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79071-1
Bogossian PM, Nattala U, Wong ASM, Morrice-West AV, Zhang GZ, Rana P, Whitton RC, Hitchens PL.Decreasing speed and stride length over successive races have been shown to be associated with musculoskeletal injury (MSI) in racehorses, demonstrating the potential for early detection of MSI through longitudinal monitoring of changes in stride characteristics. A machine learning (ML) approach for early detection of MSI, enforced rest, and retirement events using this same horse-level, race-level, and stride characteristic data across all race sectionals was investigated. A CatBoost model using features from the two races prior to an event had the highest classification performance (sensitiv...
Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Racing Time and Ranking in Thoroughbred Horses.
Journal of equine veterinary science    November 18, 2024   105244 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105244
Padilha DAO, Padilha SF, Martins R, Scheffer BEM, Miliorini MR, Dias LT, Teixeira RA.This study aimed to estimate genetic parameters for race time in seconds and final ranking, as well as to analyze the genetic trends associated with race time. The study utilized a dataset consisting of 23,290 records of race times and final ranks at distances of 1,000, 1,600, and 2,000 m from 6,213 Thoroughbred horses from the São Paulo Jockey Club. Our model considered the year of the run, animal sex, race class, track conditions, the linear effect of horse weight and age, and the quadratic effect of age as fixed covariates. Random effects included direct additive genetic, animal permanent ...
A genome-wide association study of the racing performance traits in Yili horses based on Blink and FarmCPU models.
Scientific reports    November 12, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 1 27648 doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79014-w
Wang C, Zeng Y, Wang J, Wang T, Li X, Shen Z, Meng J, Yao X.Racing performance traits are the main indicators for evaluating the performance and value of sport horses. The aim of this study was to identify the key genes for racing performance traits in Yili horses by performing a genome-wide association study (GWAS). Breeding values for racing performance traits were calculated for Yili horses (n = 827) using an animal model. Genome-wide association analysis of racing performance traits in horses (n = 236) was carried out using the Blink, and FarmCPU models in GAPIT software, and genes within the significant regions were functionally annotated....
Comparison of blood parameters in two genetically different groups of horses for functional longevity in show jumping.
Frontiers in genetics    October 29, 2024   Volume 15 1455790 doi: 10.3389/fgene.2024.1455790
Harari S, Deretz S, Dumont Saint Priest B, Richard E, Ricard A.In order to find early selection criteria to improve the longevity of show jumping horses, a specific protocol was designed. Unassigned: Before entering competition, young horses selected from extreme stallions for longevity were measured for many traits, including blood parameters. Blood samples were taken from 952 horses aged 2-4 years old, sired by two groups of stallions: one with unfavorable (U) and the other with favorable (F) extreme estimated breeding values for functional longevity. These breeding values were previously calculated from data on 202,320 horses that participated in show...
Unravelling the speed-going relationship: A proof of concept study from British turf flat and jump race meetings.
Journal of equine veterinary science    October 24, 2024   Volume 143 105211 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105211
Hobbs SJ, Tatlisulu A, Johnson A, Rowlands SD, Lucey M, Martin JH, Graydon RW, Northrop AJ.The maximum galloping speeds of racehorses during a race are influenced by the functional performance of the ground ('going') amongst other factors. For turf racecourses in Britain, the ground is descriptively classified and numerically quantified on the morning of a race meeting by the clerk of the course and subsequently published to assist decision making. Importantly, this includes deciding whether a horse should or should not run. The going is also assessed and classified during the meeting by racing analysts using the normalized winning times from each race result. Differences between go...
Administration Route Differentiation of Altrenogest via the Metabolomic LC-HRMS Analysis of Equine Urine.
Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)    October 22, 2024   Volume 29, Issue 21 4988 doi: 10.3390/molecules29214988
Elbourne M, Keledjian J, Cawley A, Fu S.Altrenogest, also known as allyltrenbolone, is a synthetic form of progesterone used therapeutically to suppress unwanted symptoms of estrus in female horses. Altrenogest affects the system by decreasing levels of endogenous gonadotrophin and luteinizing and follicle-stimulating hormones, which in turn decreases estrogen and mimics the increase of progesterone production. This results in more manageable mares for training and competition alongside male horses while improving the workplace safety of riders and handlers. However, when altrenogest is administered, prohibited steroid impurities su...
Inertial measurement unit technology for gait detection: a comprehensive evaluation of gait traits in two Italian horse breeds.
Frontiers in veterinary science    October 16, 2024   Volume 11 1459553 doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1459553
Asti V, Ablondi M, Molle A, Zanotti A, Vasini M, Sabbioni A.The shift of the horse breeding sector from agricultural to leisure and sports purposes led to a decrease in local breeds' population size due to the loss of their original breeding purposes. Most of the Italian breeds must adapt to modern market demands, and gait traits are suitable phenotypes to help this process. Inertial measurement unit (IMU) technology can be used to objectively assess them. This work aims to investigate on IMU recorded data (i) the influence of environmental factors and biometric measurements, (ii) their repeatability, (iii) the correlation with judge evaluations, and (...
Colostrum conductivity, pH and Brix index as predictors of passive immunity transfer in foals.
Equine veterinary journal    October 16, 2024   Volume 57, Issue 4 898-903 doi: 10.1111/evj.14421
Magalhaes HB, Canisso IF.Foal immunity relies heavily on the absorption of colostrum immunoglobulins; thus, colostrum evaluation is used to predict the transfer of passive immunity (TPI), and its conductivity is associated with TPI in cattle. Leading up to and at parturition, a reduction in colostrum pH and conductivity is thought to be necessary for TPI; however, this remains to be determined. Objective: To assess conductivity, pH, and Brix refractometer index of colostrum to predict the TPI in foals. Methods: Field study. Methods: The colostrum of 241 mares was assessed for conductivity, pH, and Brix index using han...
Analyses of whole-genome sequences from 185 North American Thoroughbred horses, spanning 5 generations.
Scientific reports    October 2, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 1 22930 doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73645-9
Bailey E, Finno CJ, Cullen JN, Kalbfleisch T, Petersen JL.Whole genome sequences (WGS) of 185 North American Thoroughbred horses were compared to quantify the number and frequency of variants, diversity of mitotypes, and autosomal runs of homozygosity (ROH). Of the samples, 82 horses were born between 1965 and 1986 (Group 1); the remaining 103, selected to maximize pedigree diversity, were born between 2000 and 2020 (Group 2). Over 14.3 million autosomal variants were identified with 4.5-5.0 million found per horse. Mitochondrial sequences associated the North American Thoroughbreds with 9 of 17 clades previously identified among diverse breeds. Indi...
Supervised Machine Learning Techniques for Breeding Value Prediction in Horses: An Example Using Gait Visual Scores.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    September 20, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 18 doi: 10.3390/ani14182723
Bussiman F, Alves AAC, Richter J, Hidalgo J, Veroneze R, Oliveira T.Gait scores are widely used in the genetic evaluation of horses. However, the nature of such measurement may limit genetic progress since there is subjectivity in phenotypic information. This study aimed to assess the application of machine learning techniques in the prediction of breeding values for five visual gait scores in Campolina horses: dissociation, comfort, style, regularity, and development. The dataset contained over 5000 phenotypic records with 107,951 horses (14 generations) in the pedigree. A fixed model was used to estimate least-square solutions for fixed effects and adjusted ...
Straight from the horse’s mouth: The effect of different feedstuffs on oral pH in horses and ponies.
Journal of equine veterinary science    September 4, 2024   Volume 142 105181 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105181
Daniels SP, Whiteside EJ, Martin S, Moore-Colyer MJS, Harris P.Feedstuffs, especially ensiled forage, may be detrimental to equid oral health by exposing the oral cavity to low pH. This study aimed to identify if salivary pH was altered by 1) a range of different feedstuffs and (2) specifically by feeding haylages with differing nutrient profiles. Two studies were conducted. The first measured oral pH following five feedstuffs, (hay, haylage, unmolassed sugarbeet pulp, unmolassed alfalfa chaff and rolled oats), tested individually over five days. Saliva (≥1 ml) was collected in triplicate, prior to feeding, directly after ingesting 500 g of each feedstu...
The prognostic importance of physiological and biochemical parameters in horses afflicted with colic.
Open veterinary journal    August 31, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 8 1801-1807 doi: 10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i8.8
Mickevičienė I, Mikalauskienė D, Miknienė Z.Colic, a primary cause of illness and death in horses, necessitates the development of improved prognostic tools. Unassigned: The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of physiological and biochemical parameters in horses suffering from colic. Unassigned: A comprehensive clinical evaluation of 117 horses included assessment of heart rate, mucous membranes, capillary refill time, rectal temperature, respiratory rate, gut motility, reflux, and limb pulse strength. Unassigned: Stomach reflux, absence of gut noises, and increased heart rate (mean increase of 12 bpm) stro...
Quality Assessment of Reconstructed Cow, Camel and Mare Milk Powders by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics.
Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)    August 23, 2024   Volume 29, Issue 17 3989 doi: 10.3390/molecules29173989
Majadi M, Barkó A, Varga-Tóth A, Maukenovna ZS, Batirkhanovna DZ, Dilora S, Lukacs M, Kaszab T, Mednyánszky Z, Kovacs Z.Milk powders are becoming a major attraction for many industrial applications due to their nutritional and functional properties. Different types of powdered milk, each with their own distinct chemical compositions, can have different functionalities. Consequently, the development of rapid monitoring methods is becoming an urgent task to explore and expand their applicability. Lately, there is growing emphasis on the potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) as a rapid technique for the quality assessment of dairy products. In the present work, we explored the potential of NIRS coupled wi...
Multivariate analysis of morphometric traits of the horse ecotypes reared in highlands of Bale Zone, Ethiopia.
Veterinary and animal science    August 22, 2024   Volume 25 100391 doi: 10.1016/j.vas.2024.100391
Guyo M, Tareke M, Tonamo A, Bediye D, Defar G.This study was conducted to evaluate morphometric traits of horse ecotypes reared in four districts of the Bale highlands, southeastern Ethiopia. Twenty-seven morphometric traits were measured from 500 horses (294 males and 206 females) of both sexes. Data were analyzed using SAS 2012. This study revealed that certain traits, such as head length, loin length, bi-ischial width, and sternum height of horses were similar. However, significant differences ( < 0.0001, < 0.01, < 0.05) were observed in other traits across the districts. All traits were affected by age ( < 0.05) except rump width an...
Explainable machine learning for assessing upper respiratory tract of racehorses from endoscopy videos.
Computers in biology and medicine    August 21, 2024   Volume 181 109030 doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2024.109030
Tahir AM, Guo L, Ward RK, Yu X, Rideout A, Hore M, Wang ZJ.Laryngeal hemiplegia (LH) is a major upper respiratory tract (URT) complication in racehorses. Endoscopy imaging of horse throat is a gold standard for URT assessment. However, current manual assessment faces several challenges, stemming from the poor quality of endoscopy videos and subjectivity of manual grading. To overcome such limitations, we propose an explainable machine learning (ML)-based solution for efficient URT assessment. Specifically, a cascaded YOLOv8 architecture is utilized to segment the key semantic regions and landmarks per frame. Several spatiotemporal features are then ex...
Evaluation of circulating miRNAs in mares approaching parturition.
Domestic animal endocrinology    August 19, 2024   Volume 89 106879 doi: 10.1016/j.domaniend.2024.106879
Kikuchi M, Murase H, Urata K, Ishige T, Nagata SI, Tozaki T, Kakoi H, Ishiguro-Oonuma T, Kizaki K.Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are stable in body fluids and can serve as biomarkers for various diseases and physiological states. Although pregnancy-related miRNAs have been identified in various mammals, studies on parturition-related circulating miRNAs in mares are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to identify parturition-related miRNAs and examine their potential applications in the prediction of parturition date. miRNAs were extracted from the plasma of Thoroughbred mares 30 days (295-326 days pregnant) and 5 (323-352 days pregnant) - 0 (328-357 days pregnant) days before parturition,...
Gut Microbiota Profiling as a Promising Tool to Detect Equine Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD).
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    August 18, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 16 doi: 10.3390/ani14162396
Sävilammi T, Alakangas RR, Häyrynen T, Uusi-Heikkilä S.Gastrointestinal disorders are common and debilitating in horses, but their diagnosis is often difficult and invasive. Fecal samples offer a non-invasive alternative to assessing the gastrointestinal health of horses by providing information about the gut microbiota and inflammation. In this study, we used 16S sequencing to compare the fecal bacterial diversity and composition of 27 healthy horses and 49 horses diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We also measured fecal calprotectin concentration, a marker of intestinal inflammation, in healthy horses and horses with IBD. We found ...
Digital video analysis reveals gait parameters that predict performance in the jumping test phase of three-day eventing.
Journal of equine veterinary science    August 17, 2024   Volume 141 105166 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105166
Johns LT, Smythe MP, Dewberry LS, Staiger EA, Allen K, Brooks SA.In international equestrian sport, visual inspections assess gait and lameness to protect the welfare of performance horses during competition. Horses competing internationally in three-day eventing must pass two mandatory inspections (pre-competition and post-cross country) before attempting the final phase: the jumping test (JT). We hypothesized that digitally quantifying objective gait parameters captured during the two mandatory inspections will identify locomotor characteristics that predict success during the jumping test. Utilizing the DeepLabCut (DLC) software package for labeling of a...
Assessment of fetal development during mid and late term pregnancies by standard B-Mode ultrasonography in Shetland ponies.
Journal of equine veterinary science    August 12, 2024   Volume 141 105162 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105162
Wagner LH, Aurich J, Claaßen S, Melchert M, Kaps M, Aurich C.Transrectal and transabdominal ultrasonography is an established method to monitor pregnancy, fetal growth and wellbeing in different species. Growth charts with multiple bio-morphometric parameters to estimate days of gestation and days before parturition exist in small companion animals, sheep and goats, riding type horses and large ponies but not in small horse breeds like Shetland ponies. The aim of this study was to apply fetal biometric assessment and detailed description of physiologic fetal development to mid and late term pregnancies in Shetland mares and to generate reference data fo...
Breeding Value Estimation Based on Morphological Evaluation of the Maremmano Horse Population through Factor Analysis.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    July 31, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 15 2232 doi: 10.3390/ani14152232
Giontella A, Silvestrelli M, Cocciolone A, Pieramati C, Sarti FM.Morphological scoring is a common evaluation method for domestic animals. The National Association of Maremmano Breeders (ANAM) has provided a dataset containing the records of 600 horses, four metric measurements (cm) and 24 traits with a continuous evaluation scale, each one with 15 classes. Moreover, a body condition score (BCS) with five classes is included. In this study, factor analysis was conducted to create a small number of informative factors (3) obtained from these traits, and a new BLUP-AM-MT index was established. The New Estimated Breeding Value (NEBV1) of each horse was compute...
Imputation of single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes in ungenotyped sport horses from the genotypes of their progeny.
Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience    July 31, 2024   Volume 18, Issue 9 101278 doi: 10.1016/j.animal.2024.101278
Doyle JL, Egan S, Berry DP.Many sport horse studbooks worldwide use microsatellite markers for parentage verification. However, many have expressed a desire to introduce genomic selection using genome-wide dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes to complement their current breeding programmes. Hence, it does not make sense to genotype the same animal for both microsatellite markers and SNP markers. Transitioning to SNP-based parentage verification is an obvious solution but one barrier to this transition is the lack of SNP data on parents from which to verify parentage against. Therefore, the objective of t...
Application of blood parameters for the early diagnosis of natural ascending placentitis in pregnant mares.
Theriogenology    July 30, 2024   Volume 228 37-53 doi: 10.1016/j.theriogenology.2024.07.025
Feijo LS, Wolfsdorf KE, Canisso IF, Parry S, Felippe MJB.Placental infection is an important cause of late-term pregnancy loss and neonatal diseases in horses. Detection of changes in blood parameters especially during early placentitis could improve the diagnostic accuracy, treatment decision, and potential outcomes. The objectives of this 2-part study were to identify differences in circulating immunological, inflammatory, and hormonal parameters between mares with natural ascending placentitis and control mares; evaluate each and combination of parameters as predictors of placentitis; and determine how these parameters indicate severity of placen...