Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Effects of integrated genetic evaluations for Icelandic horses on predictive ability, accuracy and selection bias. The genetic evaluation of Icelandic horses is currently based on results from breeding field tests of riding ability and conformation. The effect of integrating competition traits and/or test status into the genetic evaluation was studied concerning estimation bias, predictive ability, accuracy, correlations between breeding values and ranking of sires. Breeding field test data included 19 954 records from horses assessed in 11 countries during 1994-2008. Competition data included 44 160 records from 7687 horses competing in Iceland and Sweden in 1998-2008. Test status was defined as attendanc...
Validation of alternative models in genetic evaluation of racing performance in North Swedish and Norwegian cold-blooded trotters. There have been several approaches to the estimation of breeding values of performance in trotters, and the objective of this study was to validate different alternatives for genetic evaluation of racing performance in the North Swedish and Norwegian cold-blooded trotters. The current bivariate approach with the traits racing status (RACE) and earnings (EARN) was compared with a threshold-linear animal model and the univariate alternative with the performance trait only. The models were compared based on cross-validation of standardized earnings, using mean-squared errors of prediction (MSEP) ...
A preliminary modelling study on the equine cervical spine with inverse kinematics at walk. The motion of the atlanto-occipital, cervical vertebral and cervicothoracic joints play an important role in equestrian sports and they are also common sites for lesions limiting performance in horses. Objective: To calculate inverse kinematics based on cervical vertebral motion and to develop a model close to the measured neck movements. Methods: Measurements were recorded in 6 horses without neck pain. Reflective markers were placed on both cristae facialis, both sides of cervical vertebra 1, 3 and 6 on the withers and hooves. The neck model was reconstructed from CT scans of the osseus stru...
Identifying equine premises at high risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases using geo-statistical and space-time analyses. The identification of premises that may play an important role in the introduction or spread of animal diseases is fundamental to the development of risk-based surveillance and control programs. A combination of geo-statistical and cluster analysis methods was used to identify geographical areas and periods of time at highest risk for introduction of the African horse sickness virus (AHSV) into the Castile and Leon (CyL) region of Spain. Risk was estimated based on the predicted premises-specific abundance of Culicoides spp., a vector for AHSV, and on the frequency of equine introductions from...
Predictors of race-day jockey falls in jumps racing in Australia. Thoroughbred jumps racing jockeys have a fall rate greater than their flat racing counterparts. Previous studies have focused on factors that contribute to falls by horses but, to date, there has not been a study of risk factors for falls to jockeys in jumps races. Data on race-day falls were extracted from stipendiary stewards reports lodged with Principal Racing Authorities following each race meeting. Denominator data were provided by Racing Information Services Australia on races conducted from August 2002 until July 2009. Univariable and multivariable analyses, estimating incidence rate r...
Fatty acids and plasmalogens of the phospholipids of the sperm membranes and their relation with the post-thaw quality of stallion spermatozoa. Fatty acids and plasmalogens were extracted from the phospholipids of the plasma membrane of stallion spermatozoa, to determine their relation with sperm quality after freezing and thawing. Sperm quality was rated using a quality index that combined the results of the analysis of sperm motility and velocity (CASA analysis), membrane status and mitochondrial membrane potential (flow cytometry) post thaw. Receiving operating system (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the value of specific lipid components of the sperm membrane herein studied as forecast of potential freezeability. From all parame...
Grip and limb force limits to turning performance in competition horses. Manoeuverability is a key requirement for successful terrestrial locomotion, especially on variable terrain, and is a deciding factor in predator-prey interaction. Compared with straight-line running, bend running requires additional leg force to generate centripetal acceleration. In humans, this results in a reduction in maximum speed during bend running and a published model assuming maximum limb force as a constraint accurately predicts how much a sprinter must slow down on a bend given his maximum straight-line speed. In contrast, greyhounds do not slow down or change stride parameters dur...
Effects of long-time series of data on genetic evaluations for performance of Swedish Warmblood riding horses. For Swedish Warmblood sport horses, breeding values (BVs) are predicted using a multiple-trait animal model with results from competitions and young horse performance tests. Data go back to the beginning of the 1970s, and earlier studies have indicated that some of the recorded traits have changed through the years. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of including all performance data or excluding the older ones compared to a bivariate model (BM) considering performance traits in early and late periods as separate traits. The bivariate approach was assumed to give the mo...
Prediction of early race starts in Norwegian-Swedish Coldblooded Trotters. Less than a third of Norwegian-Swedish Coldblooded Trotters (NSCTs) have started racing as three year olds since the year 2000 despite the fact that large sums are paid out as price-money in the three year season. Recruitment races are arranged by the Norwegian Trotting Association (NTA) to stimulate early training. The management of young horses varies considerably and a large majority is reared by amateurs. The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of early race starts in young NSCT horses under field conditions. Methods: Of the 801 registered NSCT horses born in 2005, 144 were...
Bioelectrical impedance analysis determination of water content and distribution in the horse. A horse's hydration status is critical to its health. The accurate and quantitative determination of it has been problematic because of size, length and density of hair, and uneven topography. The objective of this study was to validate a bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) method for objectively quantifying hydration status. Monofrequency BIA values and simple biometric measurements were used to construct predictive equations for total body water, plasma, extracellular, and intra-cellular fluid volumes. These predictive equations were correlated with standard body fluid dilution reference ...
The development of a metabolizable energy system for horses. The development of a metabolizable energy (ME) system for horses is described. Predictive equations for gross energy and digestible energy (DE) are revisited. The relationship between feed protein content and renal energy losses and the relationship between feed fibre content and methane energy losses were analysed in a literature review to develop predictive equations for ME. In horses, renal energy losses are much higher than losses by methane energy. Renal energy losses were correlated more strictly to protein intake than to digestible protein intake. The reason probably is that per gram of...
Geographic distribution modeling and spatial cluster analysis for equine piroplasms in Greece. Maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and spatial scan statistic were utilized to predict the geographic range and to investigate clusters of infections for equine piroplasms in Greece, using the Maxent and SaTScan programs, respectively. The eastern half of the country represented the culminating area with high probabilities (p>0.75) of presence of equine piroplasms and encompassed most regions with high concentration of equid host populations. The most important environmental factor that contributed to the ecological niche modeling was land cover followed by temperature. Significant c...
Associations between physiotherapy findings and subsequent diagnosis of pelvic or hindlimb fracture in racing Thoroughbreds. Physiotherapists who work in racehorse training yards routinely treat horses' backs and hindquarters and may be able to recognise signs that indicate the presence of (impending) pelvic or hindlimb fracture before it becomes catastrophic. Objective: To establish whether physiotherapy assessment findings in Thoroughbred racehorses referred for routine physiotherapy could be predictive of subsequent (within 30 days) pelvic or hindlimb fracture diagnosis. Methods: Retrospective veterinary and physiotherapy data from a cohort of Newmarket (UK) Thoroughbred racehorses, were used. A case-control stud...
On the search for in vitro in vivo correlations in the field of intra-articular drug delivery: administration of sodium diatrizoate to the horse. Development of suitable in vitro release models for formulation development as well as quality control purposes has to be initiated in the early design phase of injectable depots. Optimally, construction of an in vitro release model may lead to the establishment of in vitro in vivo correlations. By using a model compound (sodium diatrizoate, DTZ), the purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of establishing in vitro in vivo relations between the DTZ disappearance profile obtained from the donor compartment of the rotating dialysis cell model and the joint disappearance profile ...
Mass gathering medical care: to calculate the Medical Usage Rate of Galway Races. Medical Usage Rate (MUR) of Galway Races: The Galway Races is the most popular horse-racing festival in Ireland. It takes place for a week starting from the last Monday in July. The races are held at Ballybrit race course in Galway. During the 7 days of racing, about 180,000 people attend. The average temperature in Galway around that time of the year is around 15-200C. The aim of this study is to calculate the MUR of Galway Races and to develop a model to predict the MUR for Galway Races in future. The MUR of Galway Races is calculated by looking retrospectively at the medical records of the ...
Correlation of mechanical properties within the equine third metacarpal with trabecular bending and multi-density micro-computed tomography data. Computed tomography (CT) data can be employed with respect to determining mechanical properties and has been used to predict parameters such as elastic modulus, yield strength, and ultimate strength of intact bone. Micro-computed tomography (muCT) possesses the resolution capable of detecting apparent bone density in extremely local regions and can characterize the trabecular structure. It has been asserted that this micro-structure is susceptible to micro-buckling and bending, which has a controversial role in predicting the global mechanical properties of bone. The current study measured the...
Assessing the efficiency of a pharmacokinetic-based algorithm for target-controlled infusion of ketamine in ponies. The objective of this study was to assess a pharmacokinetic algorithm to predict ketamine plasma concentration and drive a target-controlled infusion (TCI) in ponies. Firstly, the algorithm was used to simulate the course of ketamine enantiomers plasma concentrations after the administration of an intravenous bolus in six ponies based on individual pharmacokinetic parameters obtained from a previous experiment. Using the same pharmacokinetic parameters, a TCI of S-ketamine was then performed over 120 min to maintain a concentration of 1 microg/mL in plasma. The actual plasma concentrations of ...
Predictors of response to immunosuppressive therapy with antithymocyte globulin and cyclosporine and prognostic factors for survival in patients with severe aplastic anemia. Immunosuppressive therapy (IST) with antithymocyte globulin (ATG) plus cyclosporine (CSA) is standard therapy in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) who do not have an available HLA-matched sibling donor. Methods: The current study aimed to determine the predictive factors for response to IST in patients with SAA and to identify prognostic factors following IST. A total of 62 patients diagnosed with SAA who received IST with either rabbit ATG (n = 33) or horse ATG (n = 29) plus CSA between October 1994 and December 2007 were included. Results: With a median follow-up duration of 60.5 mo...
Horse breed discrimination using machine learning methods. Genetic relationships and population structure of 8 horse breeds in the Czech and Slovak Republics were investigated using classification methods for breed discrimination. To demonstrate genetic differences among these breeds, we used genetic information - genotype data of microsatellite markers and classification algorithms - to perform a probabilistic prediction of an individual's breed. In total, 932 unrelated animals were genotyped for 17 microsatellite markers recommended by the ISAG for parentage testing (AHT4, AHT5, ASB2, HMS3, HMS6, HMS7, HTG4, HTG10, VHL20, HTG6, HMS2, HTG7, ASB17, AS...
The pharmacokinetics of the weakly protein-bound anionic compound diatrizoate in serum and synovial fluid of the horse. To establish a pharmacokinetic model for the model drug, sodium diatrizoate (DTZ), allowing joint disappearance kinetics to be estimated from serum appearance kinetics following intra-articular administration, and to calculate the relative joint exposure after intravenous and intra-articular DTZ administration (F(iv/IA)). Methods: Each of five horses received an aqueous solution of 3.9 mg/kg sodium diatrizoate both intravenously and intra-articularly separated by a one-week wash out period. Serum and synovial samples were collected over 7 h and analyzed for content of model compound using indu...
Ultrasonographic assessment of the superficial digital flexor tendons of National Hunt racehorses in training over two racing seasons. It is important to ascertain the prevalence of superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injuries and to improve methods of predicting injury in National Hunt (NH) racehorses. Objective: To establish: 1) the prevalence of SDFT tendinopathy in NH horses; 2) whether routine ultrasonography can be used to predict SDFT injuries; 3) whether previous tendinopathy predisposes to reinjury; 4) a normal range for the SDFT cross-sectional area (CSA); and 5) the effects of gender, age, background (ex-flat or ex-store), limb, training and rest periods on SDFT CSA. Methods: Routine ultrasound assessment of t...
Factors predictive of abnormal results for computed tomography of the head in horses affected by neurologic disorders: 57 cases (2001-2007). To determine neurologic indications associated with abnormal results for computed tomography (CT) imaging of the head of horses affected by neurologic disorders. Methods: Retrospective case series. Methods: 57 horses. Methods: Signalment, history, clinical abnormalities, and clinicopathologic findings were obtained from medical records of horses examined because of neurologic disorders, and precontrast and postcontrast CT images of the head were reviewed. Data were analyzed by use of univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results: For a horse with abnormal mentation, odds of having a...
Multivariate analysis of factors associated with post-anesthetic times to standing in isoflurane-anesthetized horses: 381 cases. To identify anesthesia-related variables which may independently predict time to standing in horses anesthetized with ketamine/diazepam/isoflurane. Methods: Retrospective case series. Methods: Three hundred and eighty-one horses. Methods: Case records were searched for the years 2000-2003 and 381 horses older than 12 months which weighed at least 200 kg were identified. Data were extracted from the records, and only horses that were anesthetized with xylazine, ketamine, diazepam and isoflurane were included in the analysis. Multiple linear regression was used to relate time to standing with de...
Prediction of incipient pasture-associated laminitis from hyperinsulinaemia, hyperleptinaemia and generalised and localised obesity in a cohort of ponies. The ability to predict ponies at increased risk of laminitic episodes, when exposed to nutrient dense pasture, would facilitate management to avoid disease. Objective: To identify variables and clinically useful cut-off values with reproducible diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of ponies that subsequently developed laminitis when exposed to nutrient dense pasture. Methods: A cohort of predominantly Welsh and Dartmoor ponies from a closed herd was evaluated in March 2006 (n = 74) and March 2007 (n = 57). Ponies were categorised as never laminitic or previously laminitic according to report...
Use of kinetic gait analysis for detection, quantification, and differentiation of hind limb lameness and spinal ataxia in horses. To evaluate use of kinetic gait analysis for detection, quantification, and differentiation of hind limb lameness and spinal ataxia in horses. Methods: Prospective clinical study. Methods: 36 horses. Procedures-Kinetic gait analysis with a force plate was performed for 12 clinically normal horses, 12 horses with hind limb lameness, and 12 horses with spinal ataxia. Kinetic variables were compared among groups, correlated to subjective grading, and used to build predictive models to assess the accuracy of discrimination. Results: Subsets of kinetic variables were characteristically altered in a...
Evaluation of intraoperative culture results as a predictor for short-term incisional complications in 49 horses undergoing abdominal surgery. This study evaluated bacterial isolates obtained during abdominal surgery and their relationship to short-term incisional complications. Samples of peritoneal fluid and from resection and/or enterotomy sites from 49 horses were cultured, with 96% having at least one positive culture result. The most common isolates were Escherichia coli, Streptococcus spp, and Enterococcus spp. Horses with small intestinal resections were more likely to grow obligate anaerobes and enteric organisms. Horses with small intestinal lesions (+/- resection) were more likely to grow enteric organisms and less likely ...
MRI-based inverse finite element approach for the mechanical assessment of patellar articular cartilage from static compression test. The mechanical property of articular cartilage determines to a great extent the functionality of diarthrodial joints. Consequently, the early detection of mechanical and, thus, functional changes of cartilage is crucial for preventive measures to maintain the mobility and the quality of life of individuals. An alternative to conventional mechanical testing is the inverse finite element approach, enabling non-destructive testing of the tissue. We evaluated a method for the assessment of the equilibrium material properties of the patellar cartilage based on magnetic resonance imaging during pate...
Preclinical animal models in single site cartilage defect testing: a systematic review. Review the literature for single site cartilage defect research and evaluate the respective strengths and weaknesses of different preclinical animal models. Methods: A literature search for animal models evaluating single site cartilage defects was performed. Variables tabulated and analyzed included animal species, age and number, defect depth and diameter and study duration. Cluster analyses were then used to separate animals with only distal femoral defects into similar groups based on defect dimensions. Representative human studies were included allowing comparison of common clinical lesio...
Mineral content of hay harvested in Bavarian and Swiss horse farms. Predictive value of cutting time, number of cut, botanical composition, origin and fertilization. Hay samples from 29 horse farms in Southern Upper Bavaria and 31 horse farms in Switzerland were taken and analysed for minerals such as calcium, magnesium, phosphorus and potassium. The content of herbs and legumes in the hay was determined and the Weende analysis was performed. Comparison between Bavaria and Switzerland resulted in comparable calcium contents of approximately 4 g Ca/kg dry matter (DM) in grass hay. Hay with more than 10% of herbs and legumes found only in Switzerland showed higher Ca contents of >7 g Ca/kg DM in hay. The mineral contents of phosphorus and potassium were l...
Bone marrow and lymph node evaluation. Evaluation of equine bone marrow and lymph node samples can provide the definitive diagnosis in some cases, and may provide useful information in other cases. Some newer techniques, including immunophenotyping of cells and clonality assays, provide the capability to more precisely identify cells, both as to origin and malignancy. Use of these techniques on equine bone marrow and lymph node samples, and compiling of the data, will eventually provide invaluable information about equine neoplasia that will greatly improve the ability to predict tumor behavior and response to therapy.