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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Development and validation of a series of three-dimensional finite element models of the equine metacarpus. Three-dimensional finite element (FE) models of the left metacarpi of five adult horses were developed from quantitative computed tomography data, using the algorithms of Keyak et al. (1990, J Biomed. Engng 12, 389-397). The metacarpi were then equipped with 12 rosette strain gauges and loaded non-destructively in a mechanical testing machine. The bones and the models were loaded in axial compression, with the load evenly distributed across the distal row of carpal bones, and with a point load placed mediad to the sagittal midline, to a load equivalent to three times body weight (-15 kN); and ...
Validation of a regression model for standardizing lifetime racing performances of thoroughbreds. To determine the relationship between prediction errors of a regression model of racing finish times and earnings or finish position; the relationship between standardized finish times, determined by use of this model, and earnings or finish position; and whether this model was valid when applied to data for horses that underwent surgical treatment. Methods: Survey. Methods: Records of 6,700 healthy Thoroughbreds racing in Louisiana and of 31 Thoroughbreds with idiopathic left laryngeal hemiplegia that underwent surgical treatment. Methods: Predicted and standardized finish times were calculat...
Prognosis for neonatal foals in an intensive care unit. This study was conducted to develop an equation for the prediction of outcome in neonatal foals undergoing treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU). Fifty-three physical examination, historical, and clinicopathologic variables were analyzed from the records of 99 neonatal foals (< 14 days of age) treated in the neonatal ICU of the Equine Medical Center. The outcome was recorded and the results were categorized into either surviving or nonsurviving groups. The mean values for the 2 groups were compared, and variables that differed significantly between the two groups were retained and used ...
Ground reaction forces in horses, assessed from hoof wall deformation using artificial neural networks. An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to investigate whether hoof wall deformation could be used to determine ground reaction forces (GRF) in horses. The ANN was taught this relationship under certain conditions and was able to generalise this knowledge to conditions for which it was not trained before. To acquire data to train and test the ANN, a horse was equipped with strain gauges attached to the dorsal, lateral and medial parts of the hoof to assess hoof wall deformation. A force plate was used to measure the GRFs. Both hoof wall deformation and GRF were recorded simultaneously...
Use of the relationship between blood lactate and running speed to determine the exercise intensity of horses. Eight thoroughbred horses, trained for racing competition, were subjected to a standardised incremental speed test to determine the relationship between their blood lactate concentrations and running speed. Between 14 days before and 14 days after completing the standardised exercise test, the horses were timed for runs of 2000 to 6000 m. The blood lactate concentration after each run was measured and compared with the blood lactate concentration predicted from the individual horse's blood lactate-running speed relationship curve determined from the standardised exercise test. The relationship...
Integrative model for predicting thermal balance in exercising horses. A theoretical integrative model was developed to determine the heat balance of horses working in a given environment. This model included the following parameters: metabolic heat gain, solar heat gain, evaporative heat loss due to sweating, respiratory tract heat loss, radiation from the body and heat gain or loss due to convection and conduction. The model developed in this study includes an unique approach for estimating heat loss via evaporation of sweat from the animal's skin surface. Previous studies modelling evaporative heat dissipation were based on the volume of sweat loss. While it i...
Estimation of the liveweight and body condition of working donkeys in Morocco. The age, sex, liveweight and body measurements (heart girth, umbilical girth, height, length from elbow to tuber ischii and circumference of the foreleg cannon bone) of 516 donkeys used to transport goods in Morocco were recorded. There were few donkeys over 12 years of age. For adult donkeys weighing from 74 to 252 kg, the best equation with only one variable for predicting liveweight was: liveweight (kg) = heart girth (cm)2.65/2188. The inclusion of two variables improved the prediction marginally, but the addition of further variables gave little further improvement. The best prediction equ...
[Differentiated prognosis in the colicky horse]. In a retrospective study on 271 horses with colic the prediction about the outcome of the disease was made by a discriminating analysis. The best combination of quantitative prognostic parameters was capillary refill time, hematocrit, lactate and anion gap, with 90% correct predictions. In comparison with individually prognostic parameters, the combined prognosis constantly reached a higher percentage of correct predictions, the exact value resulting in 89%. Moreover, survival was better predictable than death.
An evaluation of the accuracy of ageing horses by their dentition: can a computer model be accurate? The prediction of the age of a horse from its dentition has been widely accepted as an accurate technique, but recent reports have questioned this belief. In this study the dental features of 434 thoroughbreds of known age were documented and a multiple regression equation was calculated from the 13 dental features which had the highest correlation with true age. The accuracy of the ages assessed by a computer model were compared with the ages estimated by experienced equine clinicians. There was little difference between the accuracy of the computer model and the human observers, and neither ...
Predictive value of foal kinematics for the locomotor performance of adult horses. The gait of 24 horses was recorded on a treadmill when they were trotting at 4 m sec-1, first when they were four months old and again when they were 26 months. The data recorded at four months were used to predict the locomotion of the adult horses, and the predictions were assessed against the data recorded at 26 months. The locomotion of the foals and the adults appeared to be closely related, when the differences in segment length and joint angles due to growth were taken into account. The duration of swing, the total range of protraction and retraction, and the maximum tarsal flexion coul...
A mouse model for testing the pathogenicity of equine herpes virus-1 strains. A mouse model was developed for testing the pathogenicity of equine herpes virus-1 (EHV-1) strains. The model was validated with EHV-1 strains that are known to be of a low or high pathogenicity in horses. From all parameters tested, the safety index, which was calculated from the body weights of the mice after infection, proved to be the best predictive parameter. When this parameter was used, good and reliable correlations were found with the pathogenicity of the EHV-1 strains in horses. This method enabled the differentiation between the two experimental EHV-1 strains whose genetic backgrou...
The accuracy of predicting Thoroughbred heart scores. Veterinarians commonly predict mature heart scores for yearling and 2-year-old horses to aid clients in assessing a horse's racing potential. Sixty-six thoroughbreds were assessed as a yearlings or 2-year-olds, then re-assessed as a mature horse (over the age of 3). Of these horses, 82% of the yearlings and 87% of the 2-year-olds had a correctly predicted mature heart score within one heart score range (i.e. three points).
Epidemiological risk factors associated with a diagnosis of clinical cyathostomiasis in the horse. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess epidemiological risk factors associated with the diagnosis of cyathostomiasis in 87 cases of chronic diarrhoea in the horse. Age, season and the period since last receiving anthelmintics were identified as important risk factors using chi-square and two-sample t test analyses, whereas access to grazing, shared grazing with other horses and recurrence of signs were only weakly associated with a diagnosis of cyathostomiasis. Multivariate analysis of the parameters using logistic regression was performed. The final model included age, season and tim...
Development of a colic severity score for predicting the outcome of equine colic. Thirty-two physical examination and laboratory variables were recorded during examination of 165 horses admitted for acute abdominal disease. Univariate analyses were performed to determine which of the variables were significantly different between horses that lived or died. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to identify variables with the best predictive value. Four variables (heart rate, peritoneal fluid total protein concentration, blood lactate concentration, and abnormal mucous membrane) remained significant when entered into the model. Histograms for each significant variable we...
Principal component analysis, using the measurements during running and swimming test, in thoroughbred horses. To investigate whether the running exercise fitness of individual horses could be assessed by a standardized swimming exercise test, the results of multivariate analysis of the exercise parameters measured during incremental running and swimming tests were compared. Ten thoroughbred horses were subjected to different types of exercise tests on a track or in a pool, and the maximum heart rate during and the blood lactate concentration immediately after the exercise were examined. Serial exercise parameters (VLA2, VLA4, LA0, V150, V200, HRS, HRLA2, HRLA4) referred to as the indices related to th...
Plasma concentrations and therapeutic efficacy of phenylbutazone and flunixin meglumine in the horse: pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling. The purpose of the present study was to establish in the horse the relationship between plasma concentration profiles of phenylbutazone (PBZ) and flunixin meglumine (FM) and their pharmacological effects in order to build a predictive pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model. In five horses, an experimental arthritis was induced by injecting Freund's adjuvant into a carpal joint. PBZ (4 mg/kg) and FM (1 mg/kg) were injected by the intravenous route as a single intravenous dose in two different trials. Five pharmacodynamic end-points were regularly measured after test article injection usi...
A comparison of the polymerase chain reaction with standard laboratory methods for the detection of EHV-1 and EHV-4 in archival tissue samples. A detection system incorporating the polymerase chain reaction was compared with the use of histopathology and virus isolation to determine the presence of equid herpesvirus type 1 or equid herpesvirus type 4 in equine tissues submitted to a diagnostic laboratory. When the polymerase chain reaction was performed, these tissues had been stored for up to 3 years. Thirty-eight tissues representing 14 cases had been stored embedded in paraffin wax. Analysis of these tissues using the PCR gave predictive values of 1.0 and 0.91 for a positive and negative result respectively, and sensitivity and spe...
Use of clinical measurements to predict the outcome in chronic cases of grass sickness (equine dysautonomia). Forty-five cases of chronic grass sickness were given scores for selected clinical measurements when they were first examined, to assess their value in predicting survival. Sixteen cases survived. The clinical scores for the degree of dysphagia, appetite, colic and the degree of reduction in gut sounds were significantly lower in the survivors than in the non-survivors. In addition, only the non-survivors had severe rhinitis. Ponies were significantly less likely to survive than cob types.
Cross-validation of cyanogen bromide-peptide ratios to measure the proportion of type II collagen in pepsin digests of equine articular cartilage, meniscus, and cartilage repair tissue. Collagen type I and type II were purified from equine flexor tendon and articular cartilage, respectively. Equal amounts of these collagens were cleaved with cyanogen bromide, and 11 mixtures containing increasing proportions of type II collagen were separated in seven identical sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gels. The density of bands was measured in wet gels and the peak areas were used to form six ratios of peptide bands that had polynomial relationships with the known proportions of type I and type II collagen in the mixtures. Calibration curves for determining the proportion of typ...
Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE): a description of the 1989 outbreak, recent epidemiologic trends, and the association of rainfall with EEE occurrence. An Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) outbreak in 1989 led to nine human and 196 equine cases, chiefly in coastal Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties. In the past two decades, EEE age-specific incidence and mortality rates have declined compared with earlier years. Analysis of rainfall patterns in areas where human EEE cases occurred between 1983 and 1989 revealed an association between occurrence of human cases and excess rainfall. The association was stronger with data from local weather stations than from statewide rainfall averages and the predictive models were best when applied to northern s...
Diagnosis and prediction of cervical vertebral malformation in thoroughbred foals based on semi-quantitative radiographic indicators. Over a period of 5 years on a central Kentucky Thoroughbred stud farm 132 foals were evaluated for the presence of cervical vertebral malformation (CVM). Lateral cervical vertebral radiographs were obtained on 70 standing foals. These radiographs were evaluated semi-quantitatively and scored numerically for the presence of stenosis of the vertebral canal, enlarged physeal growth plates, caudal extension of the dorsal border of the orifice of the vertebral canal, angular fixation, delayed ossification of bone and degenerative joint disease. From these scores a total CVM score was given for each...
Sex does not influence serum osteocalcin levels in standardbred horses of different ages. The influence of sex on serum osteocalcin levels was studied in 99 Standardbred horses, 52 males and 47 females. The age varied between the day of birth and five years old. A significant inverse correlation (r = -0.87, p 0.05). When the subjects were divided into five age groups of six months or less, 6 to 18, 18 to 24, 24 to 36 and between 36 and 60 months, no significant influence of sex was noted. A predictive model for serum osteocalcin levels (y = 52.19 - 0.026 age in days, r2 = 0.76) for Standardbred horses aged between the day of birth and five years is described.
Prognostic variables for survival of neonatal foals under intensive care. The costly nature of intensive care for neonatal foals prompted a study of predictive variables for survival in a referral hospital. Applying stepforward logistic regression to parameters that differed significantly (P less than 0.10) between survivors (S) and nonsurvivors (NS) in a retrospective study (n = 56), two variables retained statistical significance [anion gap (AG, P = 0.0047) and venous PO2 (PvO2, P = 0.0342)], thus forming the basis for a predictive equation for survival: the Pn (probability of NS) = eA/(1 + eA) where A = -1.46 - 0.107 (PvO2) + 0.213 (AG). The predictive equation w...
The role of selected biochemical components of equine seminal plasma in determining suitability for deep-freezing. Experiments conducted on the freezability of 400 ejaculates collected from 64 stallions demonstrate the possibility of predicting the semen's ability to withstand the freezing/thawing process. If the sperm concentration, AspAT activity and total protein content in the seminal plasma of raw ejaculates are determined before freezing, the effects of freezing may be forecast in about 80% of the ejaculates.
Modelling exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage in racing thoroughbreds. Exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage (EIPH) affects a large portion of racing thoroughbred horses. Sites of hemorrhage and causal mechanisms remain unestablished. Our mathematical model was constructed to test the hypothesis that EIPH could be caused by a combination of respiratory and circulatory mechanical factors occurring during exercise. Various physiological data for respiration, blood circulation and exercise were incorporated into the model. Results show that inhalation pressure drops across airway resistances become great enough during exercise to cause rupture of capillaries for bot...
Multivariable prediction model for the need for surgery in horses with colic. A survey of 1,965 equine colic cases was conducted from August 1985 to July 1986 at 10 equine referral centers located throughout the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a multivariable model for the need for surgery. Two-thirds of the cases were randomly selected for model development (1,336), whereas the remaining cases (629) were used only for subsequent validation of the model. If a lesion requiring surgical correction was found at either surgery or necropsy, the case for the horse was classified as surgical, otherwise the case was classified as medical. On...
Genetic predictions of racing performance in quarter horses. Research on the racing performance of quarter horses has been used to develop genetic prediction summaries on all horses with at least one start on record at the American Quarter Horse Association. In the 1987 summary, records from a total of 212,065 horses were used to give genetic predictions on stallions, mares, geldings, fillies, and colts. A reduced animal model was used that incorporated the repeated records of individuals. The individual race was the contemporary group after the data were adjusted for distance, sex, and age. Estimates of heritability of .24 and repeatability of .32 sugg...
The effects of increase testicular temperature on spermatogenesis in the stallion. Stallions can experience an increase in testicular temperature from bouts of fever or from injury to the testes. In species other than the horse, increased temperature models have been used to study testicular degeneration. This study was undertaken to examine the effects of increased testicular temperature on spermatogenesis in the stallion as measured by semen evaluation. The results of this investigation demonstrate that increased testicular temperature is associated with significant transitory alterations in the routine semen evaluation of the stallion. The duration of increased testicular...
Evaluation of measures taken by ultrasonography and caliper to estimate testicular volume and predict daily sperm output in the stallion. The semen of 26 stallions, 2-20 years of age, was collected once a day for 7 consecutive days to determine daily sperm output (DSO). After the last collection, 17 stallions were castrated. Testicular volume was estimated using two methods. Length, width, height, of each testis were measured by caliper. Length, width, height, cross-sectional area and circumference at the widest point of the testis were measured by ultrasonography. Both caliper and ultrasound measurements were first made in the live animal, and again in vitro. There were no differences in these measurements because of method or ...
A computer-derived protocol using recursive partitioning to aid in estimating prognosis of horses with abdominal pain in referral hospitals. In order to determine which variables are useful and accurate in estimating prognosis in horses with abdominal pain, data were analyzed from 231 horses presented at a veterinary teaching hospital. Using multiple stepwise discriminant analysis in a recursive partition model, we obtained a decision protocol that identified survivors and nonsurvivors. The prevalence of survivors was 61% in this population. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this model were 71, 83, 87 and 65%, respectively. This decision protocol was validated by Jackknife classification a...
