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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Bayesian prediction of breeding values for multivariate binary and continuous traits in simulated horse populations using threshold-linear models with Gibbs sampling. Simulated data were used to determine the properties of multivariate prediction of breeding values for categorical and continuous traits using phenotypic, molecular genetic and pedigree information by mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling. Simulation parameters were chosen such that the data resembled situations encountered in Warmblood horse populations. Genetic evaluation was performed in the context of the radiographic findings in the equine limbs. The simulated pedigree comprised seven generations and 40 000 animals per generation. The simulated data included additive gen...
Estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values for multivariate threshold and continuous data in a simulated horse population using Gibbs sampling and residual maximum likelihood. Simulated horse data were used to compare multivariate estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values (BV) for categorical, continuous and molecular genetic data using linear animal models via residual maximum likelihood (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling (GS). Simulation included additive genetic values, residuals and fixed effects for one continuous trait, liabilities of four binary traits, and quantitative trait locus (QTL) effects and genetic markers with different recombination rates and polymor...
Retrospective study of predictive variables for maximal heart rate (HRmax) in horses undergoing strenuous treadmill exercise. Heart rate is one of the most commonly measured variables in equine exercise physiology and relative exercise intensity commonly expressed as % of maximal heart rate. A number of influences affect maximal heart rate (HRmax), including age of the horse but other factors have not been described. Objective: To determine if fitness, health status, gender, breed, athletic use, body mass, in addition to age, are predictive of HRmax in the horse. Methods: Maximal heart rate data from 328 horses which underwent treadmill exercise tests at 5 different laboratories were obtained retrospectively. Univari...
Correlation between routine radiographic findings and early racing career in French trotters. The relationship between the presence of radiological abnormalities and subsequent racing performance is controversial. However, as training is expensive and time consuming, it would save time and money to identify subjects with osteo-articular lesions not compatible with a normal racing career on the basis of routine radiographic screenings at yearling age. Objective: To evaluate the impact of osteo-articular lesions on racing ability in French Trotters and identify radiographic changes associated with failure in 'qualification', in order to provide objective criteria for selection of horses ...
Theoretical MRI contrast model for exogenous T2 agents. The rational development of new generations of MRI contrast agents (CAs) requires a scheme for predicting contrast enhancement. Previous contrast predictions have been based largely on empirical results in specific systems. Here we present a general theoretical model for evaluating the minimum concentration of T2 CA required for satisfactory image contrast. This analytic contrast model is applicable to a wide range of T2-type agents and delivery scenarios, and requires only a few readily evaluated parameters. We demonstrated the model by predicting contrast produced by superparamagnetic ferumo...
Use of infrared spectroscopy for diagnosis of traumatic arthritis in horses. To evaluate use of infrared spectroscopy for diagnosis of traumatic arthritis in horses. Methods: 48 horses with traumatic arthritis and 5 clinically and radiographically normal horses. Methods: Synovial fluid samples were collected from 77 joints in 48 horses with traumatic arthritis. Paired samples (affected and control joints) from 29 horses and independent samples from an affected (n = 12) or control (7) joint from 19 horses were collected for model calibration. A second set of 20 normal validation samples was collected from 5 clinically and radiographically normal horses. Fourier transfor...
Antinociceptive effects, metabolism and disposition of ketamine in ponies under target-controlled drug infusion. Ketamine is widely used as an anesthetic in a variety of drug combinations in human and veterinary medicine. Recently, it gained new interest for use in long-term pain therapy administered in sub-anesthetic doses in humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPk) model for ketamine in ponies and to investigate the effect of low-dose ketamine infusion on the amplitude and the duration of the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR). A target-controlled infusion (TCI) of ketamine with a target plasma level of 1 microg/ml S-ketamine over 120 ...
Environmental and ecological determinants of West Nile virus occurrence in horses in North Dakota, 2002. West Nile virus (WNV) outbreak in North Dakota in 2002 included over 569 horse cases, clustered mainly in the eastern and northeastern parts of the state. The pattern of occurrence observed suggested existence of specific environmental and ecological factors that increased the risk for infection and illness in those locations. We developed a predictive model with factors that explained the pattern of WNV occurrence observed. Results indicated that surface elevation, temperature, precipitation, reported WNV-positive birds, reported WNV-positive humans, and reported WNV-positive mosquitoes were ...
Use of a multivariable model to estimate the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals that are 7 days of age or less. To create a mathematical model to assist in early prediction of the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals < or= 7 days old. Methods: Prospective study. Methods: 1,073 foals. Methods: Medical records from 910 hospitalized foals < or = 7 days old for which outcome was recorded as died or discharged alive were reviewed. Thirty-four variables including historical information, physical examination findings, and laboratory results were examined for association with survival. Variables associated with being discharged alive were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model. A...
Prediction of equine risk of West Nile virus infection based on dead bird surveillance. Since the introduction of West Nile Virus (WNV) to the United States in 1999, the efficacy of dead bird surveillance for the prediction of human and veterinary WNV infection has been an issue of debate. We utilized South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control surveillance data from 2003 to determine whether dead bird surveillance accurately predicts equine WNV infection on a county level. We adjusted for human population density as a potential confounder of an association between WNV-positive dead bird counts and mammalian WNV risk. We found a strong positive association bet...
A comparison of survival models for assessing risk of racehorse fatality. Survival analysis was used to assess risk factors for fatal injuries on UK race courses. This allowed assessment of variation due to temporal horse-level effects, including previous racing intensity and historical distribution of race types, as well as race-level factors. Comparisons were made between measuring survival time as number of days and as number of races to injury from the first race. Two related models were presented for time as number of races to injury: a Cox regression model fitted using partial likelihood, with the Efron approximation to handling ties, and a discrete-time logit...
Real-time ultrasound measure of the fetal eye (vitreous body) for prediction of parturition date in small ponies. Ultrasonographic fetal eye measures have been used to estimate gestational age of the fetus in light horse mares. However, fetal eye measures have not been published for smaller pony breeds. This study was conducted to develop reference ranges for ultrasonographic measures of fetal eyes in small ponies for the purpose of predicting days before parturition (DBP) when breeding or ovulation dates are unknown. Twenty-three Shetland-type pony mares were studied across one (n = 10) or two (n = 13) gestations in 2004 (18 pregnancies) and 2005 (18 pregnancies). Measurements of fetal eyes were obtained...
Use of proxies and reference quintiles obtained from minimal model analysis for determination of insulin sensitivity and pancreatic beta-cell responsiveness in horses. To develop proxies calculated from basal plasma glucose and insulin concentrations that predict insulin sensitivity (SI; L.min(-1) x mU(-1)) and beta-cell responsiveness (ie, acute insulin response to glucose [AIRg]; mU/L x min(-1)) and to determine reference quintiles for these and minimal model variables. Methods: 1 laminitic pony and 46 healthy horses. Methods: Basal plasma glucose (mg/dL) and insulin (mU/L) concentrations were determined from blood samples obtained between 8:00 AM and 9:00 AM. Minimal model results for 46 horses were compared by equivalence testing with proxies for screeni...
[Prediction of 137Cs accumulation in animal products in the territory of Semipalatinsk test site]. The paper describes mathematical models for 137Cs behavior in the organism of horses and sheep pasturing on the bording area to the testing area "Ground Zero" of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The models are parameterized on the base of the data from an experiment with the breeds of animals now commonly encountered within the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The predictive calculations with the models devised have shown that 137Cs concentrations in milk of horses and sheep pasturingon the testing area to "Ground Zero" can exceed the adopted standards during a long period of time.
Can jumping capacity of adult show jumping horses be predicted on the basis of submaximal free jumps at foal age? A longitudinal study. The purpose of this study was to quantify performance characteristics of good jumping horses, and to determine whether these were already detectable at foal age. Kinematic data were collected of horses performing free jumps over a 0.60 m high fence at six months of age and of these same horses jumping with a rider over a 1.15 m high fence at five years of age. At five years of age the horses were divided into three groups on the basis of a puissance competition: a group of seven best jumpers that made no errors and in the end cleared a 1.50 m high fence, a group of nine worst jumpers that were...
Capacitation, acrosome function and chromatin structure in stallion sperm. In general, fertility in breeding stallions is lower and more variable than in the other farm animal species, primarily because selection is based on pedigree, looks and/or athletic performance, with little consideration of fertility or fertility potential. Moreover, because the average stallion breeds only a limited number of mares per year and in-field fertility is influenced significantly by non-stallion factors such as management and mare fertility, meaningful fertility data are hard to come-by. Unfortunately, generating usable figures would involve impractically high costs, time and numbe...
Factors affecting long-term survival of horses recovering from surgery of the small intestine. Epiploic foramen entrapment (EFE) has been associated with a particularly poor post operative prognosis for equine colic cases, but the reasons for this are unknown. Objective: To identify variables associated with post operative survival following surgery for small intestinal disease; develop a model describing long-term post operative survival; and identify reasons for the poor prognosis associated with EFE. Methods: Data from 382 horses undergoing surgery were used to identify variables associated with survival. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for post operative survival was ...
Modelling long-term survival of horses following surgery for large intestinal disease. Large intestinal diseases are an important cause of equine colic that require surgical management, but there is little published information about long-term survival of such cases. Objective: To identify variables associated with post operative mortality and to develop a model for post operative survival following surgery for large intestinal disease. Methods: Clinical data and long-term follow-up information from 275 horses undergoing surgery for large intestinal disease were used. A multivariable, Cox proportional hazards model for post operative death was developed and the fit of the model ...
Prediction of foaling using mammary secretion constituents. To test published models for predicting time of foaling using data derived from prepartum mammary secretions and to develop a new model based on concentrations of mammary secretion constituents that accurately predicts time of foaling in Thoroughbred mares. Methods: Concentrations of sodium, potassium, calcium, citrate and lactose were measured in prepartum mammary secretions of 20 Thoroughbred mares in the 2 weeks before expected date of foaling. Models to predict time of foaling were fitted to data based on absolute concentration, change in concentration, and percentage change in concentrati...
Using blood urea nitrogen to predict nitrogen excretion and efficiency of nitrogen utilization in cattle, sheep, goats, horses, pigs, and rats. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential for using blood urea N concentration to predict urinary N excretion rate, and to develop a mathematical model to estimate important variables of N utilization for several different species of farm animals and for rats. Treatment means (n = 251) from 41 research publications were used to develop mathematical relationships. There was a strong linear relationship between blood urea N concentration (mg/100 mL) and rate of N excretion (g x d(-1) x kg BW(-1)) for all animal species investigated. The N clearance rate of the kidney (L of bloo...
A Bayesian approach to prediction of stallion daily sperm output. In equine breeding, the number of spermatozoa ejaculated is considered an important factor in fertility. Methods for predicting the number of spermatozoa have been derived from semen collection procedures. A once-daily collection period for 10 days is a standard recommendation to predict long-term daily sperm output (DSO). The first objective of this study was to determine the precision or repeatability of these DSO predictions. Semen was collected and evaluated daily during four periods for 10 days, for 15 different stallions. The analytical methods utilized hierarchal Bayesian modeling as im...
Echocardiography and electrocardiography as means to evaluate potential performance in horses. Prediction of potential performance is one of the goals of exercise physiology investigations. When Selecting a horse for competition, one of the main objectives is to choose the one that predictably will reveal a competitive aptitude above the average. The horses used in this study underwent a two-dimensional echocardiography study and a conventional 3 leads electrocardiogram. The results show that heart score is not an appropriate index to evaluate the heart size in the horse. On the other hand, there are currently more suitable and accurate procedures such as echocardiography that allow per...
Case-control investigation of the factors affecting the risk of horses falling during steeplechase racing in the UK. A concurrent case-control study of 12 UK racecourses was made between March 1, 2000, and August 31, 2001, to identify and quantify the factors associated with the risk of horses falling in steeplechase races. Cases were defined as a jumping effort at a steeplechase fence that resulted in a fall and controls were defined as a successful jumping effort over any steeplechase fence at any of the 12 racecourses within 14 days before or after the case fall. Information on the horse, the jockey and the race were collected and all the fences on all the courses were surveyed. Conditional logistic regre...
Weight prediction from linear measures of growing Thoroughbreds. Monitoring weight of foals is a useful management practice to aid in maximising athletic potential while minimising risks associated with deviations from normal growth. Objective: To develop predictive equations for weight, based on linear measurements of growing Thoroughbreds (TBs). Methods: Morphometric equations predicting weight from measurements of the trunk and legs were developed from data of 153 foals. The accuracy, precision and bias of the best fitting equation were compared to published equations using a naive data set of 22 foals. Results: Accuracy and precision were maximised with...
M-mode echocardiographic ratio indices in normal dogs, cats, and horses: a novel quantitative method. A novel method for quantitative echocardiographic interpretations is introduced based on the calculation of ratio indices in which each raw M-mode measurement is divided by the aortic root dimension (Ao). "Aorta-based" indices were calculated with the animal's measured aortic root dimension (Ao(m)) as the length standard. Conversely, "weight-based" indices employed an idealized estimate of aortic dimension (Ao(w)) with a weighted least squares linear regression against the cube root of body weight (Ao(w) = kW(1/3)). Use of these indices circumvented undesirable statistical characteristics inhe...
Retrospective analysis of historical, clinical, ultrasonographic, serum biochemical and haematological data in prognostic evaluation of equine liver disease. Results of noninvasive tests of liver disease do not always correlate with the degree of hepatic disease nor outcome of the case. Objective: To investigate the prognostic value of data collected using noninvasive tests during the investigation of cases of suspected liver disease in mature horses. Objective: Much of the data gathered during the investigation of suspected hepatopathy cases offers little prognostic guidance and interpretation of such data can be misleading. Methods: The results from a range of common and noninvasive diagnostic techniques applied in 116 mature horses with suspecte...
The predictive value of semen analysis in the evaluation of stallion fertility. Pregnancy rates in managed horse populations depend on the innate fertility of the mares and stallions involved and on the quality of breeding management. Of course, because a single stallion usually mates many mares, stallion fertility is a critical factor in the overall success of a breeding program. Unfortunately, accurate evaluation of stallion fertility per se requires a large number of normal mares to be mated and is necessarily retrospective. Rather, the ideal is to predict fertility in advance of the stallion's breeding career, and this is currently attempted by way of a thorough physi...
California state Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan: a retrospective evaluation using conditional simulations. The California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan recently was developed to provide a semi-quantitative means for assessing risk for western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) or St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses and to provide intervention guidelines for mosquito control and public health agencies during periods of heightened risk for human infection. West Nile virus recently has arrived in California, and the response plan also will provide a baseline for assessing the risk for human and equine infection with this virus. In the response plan, overall risk is calculated by ave...
[Reliability of the glutaraldehyde test to measure gamma-globulin levels in foals and the use of this test to check colostrum intake of foals]. The glutaraldehyde coagulation test is a semi-quantitative test used to determine the gammaglobulin concentration in serum. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the different modifications of this test by determining the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and the prevalence of hypogammaglobulinemia in foals. The results of the glutaraldehyde coagulation test were compared with the serum gammaglobulin concentration as a reference value, determined by measuring total serum protein and the serum protein spectrum. It was concluded that the glut...
