Omneity® Pellets
All-In-One Vitamin & Mineral Pellet
Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
The development and evaluation of a mathematical nutrition model to predict digestible energy intake of broodmares based on body condition changes. Mathematical nutrition models have been developed for beef and dairy cattle to estimate dietary energy intake needed to change BCS. Similar technology has not been used to improve nutrition and feeding strategies for horses. An accurate equine nutrition model may enhance feeding management and reduce the costs of unnecessary overfeeding and promote an optimal level of fatness to achieve reproductive efficiency. The objectives of this study were to develop and evaluate a mathematical nutrition model capable of accurately predicting dietary energy changes to alter BW, rump fat (RF) thickness, an...
A Bayesian approach for estimating detection times in horses: exploring the pharmacokinetics of a urinary acepromazine metabolite. We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. ACP (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance (Cl/...
Comparison of pH and refractometry index with calcium concentrations in preparturient mammary gland secretions of mares. To test the usefulness of measuring pH and refractometry index, compared with measuring calcium carbonate concentration, of preparturient mammary gland secretions for predicting parturition in mares. Methods: Evaluation study. Methods: 27 pregnant Thoroughbred mares. Methods: Preparturient mammary gland secretion samples were obtained once or twice daily 10 days prior to foaling until parturition. The samples were analyzed for calcium carbonate concentration with a water hardness kit (151 samples), pH with pH test paper (222 samples), and refractometry index with a Brix refractometer (214 samp...
Effect of trotting speed and circle radius on movement symmetry in horses during lunging on a soft surface. To determine whether body lean angle could be predicted from circle radius and speed in horses during lunging and whether an increase in that angle would decrease the degree of movement symmetry (MS). Methods: 11 medium- to high-level dressage horses in competition training. Methods: Body lean angle, head MS, and trunk MS were quantified during trotting while horses were instrumented with a 5-sensor global positioning system-enhanced inertial sensor system and lunged on a soft surface. Speed and circle radius were varied and used to calculate predicted body lean angle. Agreement between observ...
Predictability of visual perturbation during locomotion: implications for corrective efference copy signaling. In guiding adaptive behavior, efference copy signals or corollary discharge are traditionally considered to serve as predictors of self-generated sensory inputs and by interfering with their central processing are able to counter unwanted consequences of an animal's own actions. Here, in a speculative reflection on this issue, we consider a different functional role for such intrinsic predictive signaling, namely in stabilizing gaze during locomotion where resultant changes in head orientation in space require online compensatory eye movements in order to prevent retinal image slip. The direct...
Evaluation of growth models for follicle development and ovulation in Lusitano mares. Several growth models are commonly used in the biological sciences, to model the follicle growth occurring in the estrous cycle. The aim of this project was to find the model that best fit the follicular size growth data for Lusitano mares. Retrospective data collected from reproduction book records of n=84 mares and n=124 cycles was used to find the series to be fitted to the models. The exponential, Gompertz, logistic, von Bertalanffy, Richards and Weibull models were used, and the most parsimonious and best fit was achieved with the logistic model (r(2)=0.999). The logistic model fits the L...
Serum protein concentrations as predictors of serum immunoglobulin G concentration in neonatal foals. To determine the predictive value of serum concentrations of total protein (sTP), albumin (sAlb), and globulin (sGlob) measured by automated calorimetric assays to estimate serum immunoglobulin G (sIgG) concentrations in neonatal foals and identify failure of transfer of passive immunity when compared to turbidoimmunometric assay determinations of sIgG. Methods: Retrospective and prospective analysis of laboratory data. Methods: University tertiary care facility. Methods: Group 1 (retrospective): foals (n = 45) ≤7 days of age in which sIgG, sGlob, sAlb, and sTP concentrations were measured o...
A predictive model for reproductive performance following abortion in Thoroughbred mares. Pregnancy losses include early embryonic death (EED) and later (postimplantation) abortion. Abortions, particularly Equid herpesvirus (EHV-1) abortion epizootics, cause severe economic and production losses. The long-term effects of EHV-1 and other abortions on subsequent reproductive performance in broodmare populations, however, remain undefined. This study described the relationships of EED and abortion with the following reproductive outcomes in Thoroughbred systems: breeding efficiency, month of last breeding, subsequent pregnancy and live foal rates. A prospective cohort study in broodma...
The effect of blood contamination on equine synovial fluid analysis. Based on a systemic complete blood count and a synovial fluid sample, to develop a mathematical model enabling the approximation of corrected values for synovial fluid white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil percentage, and total protein concentration in samples of synovial fluid that were contaminated by blood. Methods: Peripheral venous blood and synovial fluid samples were obtained from ten horses. A pooled synovial fluid sample from each horse was separated into 2 mL aliquots, which were subsequently contaminated with a known percentage of autogenous blood (0 to 50% of the synovial fluid ...
Estimating variance components and predicting breeding values for eventing disciplines and grades in sport horses. Eventing competitions in Great Britain (GB) comprise three disciplines, each split into four grades, yielding 12 discipline-grade traits. As there is a demand for tools to estimate (co)variance matrices with a large number of traits, the aim of this work was to investigate different methods to produce large (co)variance matrices using GB eventing data. Data from 1999 to 2008 were used and penalty points were converted to normal scores. A sire model was utilised to estimate fixed effects of gender, age and class, and random effects of sire, horse and rider. Three methods were used to estimate (...
Feasibility of infrared spectroscopy with pattern recognition techniques to identify a subpopulation of mares at risk of producing foals diagnosed with failure of transfer of passive immunity. To assess the feasibility of a serum-based test using infrared spectroscopy to identify a subpopulation of mares at risk of producing foals susceptible to failure of passive transfer of immunity (FPT) because of mare-associated factors. Methods: Serum was collected from post-parturient mares (n = 126) and their foals at 24-72 h of age. A radial immunodiffusion IgG test was used to determine each foal's serum IgG concentration. Infrared absorbance spectra of dam sera were collected in the wave number range of 400-4000 cm(-1). Following data preprocessing, pattern recognition techniques were use...
Application of Wood’s model to lactation curve of Italian Heavy Draft horse mares. The aim of this work was to study, using Wood's model, the lactation curve in Italian Heavy Draft horse (IHDH) mares, both for milk yield and composition. Interest in mare's milk has grown for use in human nutrition, as a substitute for human and cow milk for premature newborns and allergic children. For this study, 7 IHDH mares were used. Milk yield was evaluated from d 15 to 180 postpartum (every 15 d). Wood's lactation model was used to describe milk yield, fat, protein, and lactose lactation curves in the first 180 d in milk (DIM), with a prediction to 210 DIM. Mean values recorded across ...
Identification of predictors of Salmonella shedding in adult horses presented for acute colic. Colic has been associated with shedding of Salmonella. Horses with salmonellosis typically develop diarrhea, fever, and leukopenia. Overlooking additional predictors may result in failure to detect shedding horses and increase environmental contamination. Objective: Evaluate associations between signalment and clinicopathologic data during early hospitalization and Salmonella shedding in horses treated for acute colic. Methods: Horses with acute colic admitted to a referral hospital. A total of 59 horses shedding Salmonella compared to 108 Salmonella-negative horses. Methods: Retrospective cas...
Risk factors for superficial digital flexor tendinopathy in Thoroughbred racehorses in steeplechase starts in the United Kingdom (2001-2009). The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for superficial digital flexor (SDF) tendinopathy in Thoroughbred horses in steeplechase races in the United Kingdom. Potential risk factors for SDF tendinopathy were studied between 1st January 2001 and 31st December 2009 using a cohort study design with 648 injuries sustained in 102,894 starts. Potential risk factors were screened using univariable logistic regression prior to multivariable model building. In the final multivariable model, 12 statistically significant risk factors were identified. Variables that increased the odds of S...
Prevalence, risk factors and clinical signs predictive for equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction in aged horses. Equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) is an ageing-related neurodegenerative disorder. The prevalence and risk factors for PPID using seasonally adjusted basal adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) concentrations in aged horses have not been previously reported. Objective: To determine the prevalence, risk factors and clinical signs predictive for PPID in a population of horses aged ≥ 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Methods: Owner-reported data was obtained using a postal questionnaire distributed to an equestrian group. A subgroup of surveyed owners were visited and a veterina...
Body condition scoring as a predictor of body fat in horses and ponies. Body condition scoring systems were originally developed to quantify flesh cover in food animals and are commonly used to evaluate body fat in Equidae. The relationship between concurrent estimates of body fat content (eTBF%, deuterium oxide dilution; range, 2.7-35.6%) and subjective appraisals of body 'fatness' (body condition score, BCS; range, 1.25-9/9), was investigated in 77 mature horses and ponies. Univariate (UVM, r(2)=0.79) and multivariable (MVM, r(2)=0.86) linear regression models described the association, where BCS and eTBF% were explanatory and outcome variables, respectively. Ot...
Number of females in cattle, sheep, pig, goat and horse breeds predicted from a single year’s registration data. An objective and accountable method is needed for deducing the number of registered animals in a breed from registration data. By following the principle that individual breeders register sufficient young females to be certain of having enough replacements for their current breeding stock, the ratios were calculated of the number of adult females in a breed to the number of female registrations, in a given year. Number of breeds considered were 8 cattle, 16 sheep, 8 pigs, 1 goat and 2 equines, all in the United Kingdom or Ireland. This yielded multipliers (4.4 for cattle, 3.3 for sheep, 3.1 fo...
Assessment for predicting parturition in mares based on prepartum temperature changes using a digital rectal thermometer and microchip transponder thermometry device. The purpose of this study was to observe the changes in body temperature before parturition using a wireless temperature monitoring device (WTMD) and to evaluate the usefulness of body temperature measurements using a digital rectal thermometer (DRT) and a microchip transponder thermometry device (MTTD) for predicting parturition in mares. The body temperatures using a WTMD at 0 hr and -1 hr were significantly different from those at the same time on Days 1-5 (P<0.01). The temperature differences between the morning of Day 0 and at -3 hr, -2 hr, -1 hr and 0 hr using the DRT and MTTD showed ...
Echocardiographic evaluation of changes in left ventricular size and valvular regurgitation associated with physical training during and after maturity in Standardbred trotters. To assess whether physical training induces cardiac hypertrophy and valvular regurgitation in maturing Standardbred trotters and to establish a prediction model for the size of the left ventricle. Methods: Longitudinal observational study. Methods: 53 Standardbred trotters. Methods: Each horse underwent 2-D, M-mode, and color flow Doppler echocardiography at 5.5 years of age; previously, each horse had been examined at 2, 2.5, 3, and 3.5 (time of maturity) years of age. Horses were or were not in training or racing for variable periods during the entire assessment period; data for a given hors...
Predictive risk mapping of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Saskatchewan horses. The objective of this study was to develop a model using equine data from geographically limited surveillance locations to predict risk categories for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in horses in all geographic locations across the province of Saskatchewan. The province was divided geographically into low-, medium-, or high-risk categories for WNV, based on available serology information from 923 horses obtained through 4 studies of WNV infection in horse populations in Saskatchewan. Discriminant analysis was used to build models using the observed risk of WNV in horses and geographic division...
Mathematical modelling of tissue formation in chondrocyte filter cultures. In the field of cartilage tissue engineering, filter cultures are a frequently used three-dimensional differentiation model. However, understanding of the governing processes of in vitro growth and development of tissue in these models is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to further characterise these processes by means of an approach combining both experimental and applied mathematical methods. A mathematical model was constructed, consisting of partial differential equations predicting the distribution of cells and glycosaminoglycans (GAGs), as well as the overall thickness of the tissue....
Epilepsy in horses: aetiological classification and predictive factors. In contrast with reports in man and small animals, a systematic classification of seizures in horses is lacking. Objective: The purpose of this study was to classify seizures based on their aetiology and to characterise epilepsy in 104 horses presented for seizures at the Ohio State University Veterinary Medical Center between 1988 and 2009. Methods: In a retrospective observational study, seizures were classified by aetiology based on history, clinical observations, diagnostic investigations (e.g. electroencephalograms, cerebrospinal fluid and computed tomography imaging of the head) and post...
Spatio-temporal patterns of distribution of West Nile virus vectors in eastern Piedmont Region, Italy. West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission in Italy was first reported in 1998 as an equine outbreak near the swamps of Padule di Fucecchio, Tuscany. No other cases were identified during the following decade until 2008, when horse and human outbreaks were reported in Emilia Romagna, North Italy. Since then, WNV outbreaks have occurred annually, spreading from their initial northern foci throughout the country. Following the outbreak in 1998 the Italian public health authority defined a surveillance plan to detect WNV circulation in birds, horses and mosquitoes. By applying spatial statistical analysi...
Pharmacokinetic assessment of ketanserin in the horse. The purpose of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics (PK) of the 5-HT(2A) receptor antagonist ketanserin in healthy adult horses, and to develop a computational model that could be used to optimize dosing. Plasma concentrations of ketanserin were determined using liquid chromatography with mass spectrometry after single and multiple intravenous administration in the horse. A two-compartment linear pharmacokinetic model described the plasma concentration-time profile of ketanserin after single and multiple doses in healthy horses; the terminal half-life was 11.5 h; steady-state volum...
Determination of body water compartments in neonatal foals by use of indicator dilution techniques and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis. To determine values for total body water (TBW), extracellular fluid volume (ECFV), intracellular fluid volume (ICFV), and plasma volume (PV) in healthy neonatal (< 24 hours old) foals and to create a multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MF-BIA) model for use in neonatal foals. Methods: 7 healthy neonatal foals. Methods: Deuterium oxide (0.4 g/kg, IV), sodium bromide (30 mg/kg, IV), and Evans blue dye (1 mg/kg, IV) were administered to each foal. Plasma samples were obtained following an equilibration period, and the TBW, ECFV, ICFV, and PV were calculated for each foal. An MF-BI...
Effects of integrated genetic evaluations for Icelandic horses on predictive ability, accuracy and selection bias. The genetic evaluation of Icelandic horses is currently based on results from breeding field tests of riding ability and conformation. The effect of integrating competition traits and/or test status into the genetic evaluation was studied concerning estimation bias, predictive ability, accuracy, correlations between breeding values and ranking of sires. Breeding field test data included 19 954 records from horses assessed in 11 countries during 1994-2008. Competition data included 44 160 records from 7687 horses competing in Iceland and Sweden in 1998-2008. Test status was defined as attendanc...
Validation of alternative models in genetic evaluation of racing performance in North Swedish and Norwegian cold-blooded trotters. There have been several approaches to the estimation of breeding values of performance in trotters, and the objective of this study was to validate different alternatives for genetic evaluation of racing performance in the North Swedish and Norwegian cold-blooded trotters. The current bivariate approach with the traits racing status (RACE) and earnings (EARN) was compared with a threshold-linear animal model and the univariate alternative with the performance trait only. The models were compared based on cross-validation of standardized earnings, using mean-squared errors of prediction (MSEP) ...
A preliminary modelling study on the equine cervical spine with inverse kinematics at walk. The motion of the atlanto-occipital, cervical vertebral and cervicothoracic joints play an important role in equestrian sports and they are also common sites for lesions limiting performance in horses. Objective: To calculate inverse kinematics based on cervical vertebral motion and to develop a model close to the measured neck movements. Methods: Measurements were recorded in 6 horses without neck pain. Reflective markers were placed on both cristae facialis, both sides of cervical vertebra 1, 3 and 6 on the withers and hooves. The neck model was reconstructed from CT scans of the osseus stru...
Identifying equine premises at high risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases using geo-statistical and space-time analyses. The identification of premises that may play an important role in the introduction or spread of animal diseases is fundamental to the development of risk-based surveillance and control programs. A combination of geo-statistical and cluster analysis methods was used to identify geographical areas and periods of time at highest risk for introduction of the African horse sickness virus (AHSV) into the Castile and Leon (CyL) region of Spain. Risk was estimated based on the predicted premises-specific abundance of Culicoides spp., a vector for AHSV, and on the frequency of equine introductions from...
Predictors of race-day jockey falls in jumps racing in Australia. Thoroughbred jumps racing jockeys have a fall rate greater than their flat racing counterparts. Previous studies have focused on factors that contribute to falls by horses but, to date, there has not been a study of risk factors for falls to jockeys in jumps races. Data on race-day falls were extracted from stipendiary stewards reports lodged with Principal Racing Authorities following each race meeting. Denominator data were provided by Racing Information Services Australia on races conducted from August 2002 until July 2009. Univariable and multivariable analyses, estimating incidence rate r...
