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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Translational Research for Occupational Therapy: Using SPRE in Hippotherapy for Children with Developmental Disabilities. Translational research is redefined in this paper using a combination of methods in statistics and data science to enhance the understanding of outcomes and practice in occupational therapy. These new methods are applied, using larger data and smaller single-subject data, to a study in hippotherapy for children with developmental disabilities (DD). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates DD affects nearly 10 million children, aged 2-19, where diagnoses may be comorbid. Hippotherapy is defined here as a treatment strategy in occupational therapy using equine movement to achieve...
Prognostic Value and Development of a Scoring System in Horses With Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome. Despite its widespread use in equine medicine, the clinical value of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) concept in horses remains unknown. Objective: To study the prognostic value of measures of SIRS in horses and identify the best model of severe SIRS to predict outcome. Methods: A total of 479 consecutive adult horse emergency admissions to a private primary referral practice. Methods: Prospective observational study. All adult horses admitted for emergency treatment over the study period were included. Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise model selection were used. ...
Ability of clinicopathologic variables and clinical examination findings to predict race elimination in endurance horses. OBJECTIVE To compare results of point-of-care laboratory testing with standard veterinary clinical examination findings at a single time point during endurance competition to identify horses at risk for elimination. ANIMALS 101 endurance horses participating in the 2013 Western States 160-km (100-mile) endurance ride. PROCEDURES At the 58-km checkpoint, blood samples were collected from all horses. Samples were analyzed for pH, Pco2, base excess, anion gap, PCV, and whole blood concentrations of sodium, potassium, chloride, total carbon dioxide, BUN, glucose, and bicarbonate. Corrected electro...
Risk factors for equine fractures in Thoroughbred flat racing in North America. The aim of this paper is to identify risk factors associated with equine fractures in flat horse racing of Thoroughbreds in North America. Equine fractures were defined as any fracture sustained by a horse during a race. This was a cohort study that made use of all starts from the racecourses reporting injuries. The analysis was based on 2,201,152 racing starts that represent 91% of all official racing starts in the USA and Canada from 1st January 2009-31st December 2014. Approximately 3,990,000 workout starts made by the 171,523 Thoroughbreds that raced during that period were also included i...
Designing an early selection morphological linear traits index for dressage in the Pura Raza Español horse. Making a morphological pre-selection of Pura Raza Español horses (PRE) for dressage is a challenging task within its current breeding program. The aim of our research was to design an early genetic selection morphological linear traits index to improve dressage performance, using 26 morphological linear traits and six dressage traits (walk, trot, canter, submission, general impression - partial scores - and total score) as selection criteria. The data set included morphological linear traits of 10 127 PRE (4159 males and 5968 females) collected between 2008 and 2013 (one record per horse) and...
Comparative Risk Analysis of Two Culicoides-Borne Diseases in Horses: Equine Encephalosis More Likely to Enter France than African Horse Sickness. African horse sickness (AHS) and equine encephalosis (EE) are Culicoides-borne viral diseases that could have the potential to spread across Europe if introduced, thus being potential threats for the European equine industry. Both share similar epidemiology, transmission patterns and geographical distribution. Using stochastic spatiotemporal models of virus entry, we assessed and compared the probabilities of both viruses entering France via two pathways: importation of live-infected animals or importation of infected vectors. Analyses were performed for three consecutive years (2010-2012). Se...
A model for the development and growth of the parasitic stages of Parascaris spp. in the horse. Literature documenting the growth and development of Parascaris spp. infections was used to develop a model describing worm dynamics in the young horse. The model incorporates four main variables; the rate at which larvae migrate through host tissues to return to the small intestine, the proportion of migrating larvae which succeed in returning to the small intestine, the rate of growth in size of maturing and adult worms and the survival rate of maturing and adult worms. In addition, the number of eggs laid each day by adult female worms is calculated as a function of worm size (length) and i...
Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium. This study aimed at estimating, in a prospective scenario, the potential economic impact of a possible epidemic of WNV infection in Belgium, based on 2012 values for the equine and human health sectors, in order to increase preparedness and help decision-makers. Modelling of risk areas, based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the main vector of the virus, allowed us to determine equine and human populations at risk. Characteristics of the different clinical forms of the disease based on past epidemics in Europe allowed morbidity among horses and humans to be estimated. The main costs ...
Caspase 3 Activity and Lipoperoxidative Status in Raw Semen Predict the Outcome of Cryopreservation of Stallion Spermatozoa. Stallion-to-stallion variability in the quality of cryopreserved ejaculates postthaw affects the commercial acceptability of frozen semen and thus is a major constraint for the equine industry. In recent years, the molecular mechanisms associated with sperm damage during cryopreservation have become better understood. Identification of the freezability of the ejaculates before the freezing process is initiated will have a major impact on the equine industry. We studied three markers of oxidative stress in sperm, including 8-iso-PGF2alpha, 8-OH guanosine, and 4-hydroxynonenal (4-HNE); the prese...
Near Infrared Spectroscopic Mapping of Functional Properties of Equine Articular Cartilage. Mechanical properties of articular cartilage are vital for normal joint function, which can be severely compromised by injuries. Quantitative characterization of cartilage injuries, and evaluation of cartilage stiffness and thickness by means of conventional arthroscopy is poorly reproducible or impossible. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for predicting and mapping the functional properties of equine articular cartilage at and around lesion sites. Lesion and non-lesion areas of interests (AI, N = 44) of equine joints (N = 5) were divided into...
Development of a new fertility prediction model for stallion semen, including flow cytometry. Several laboratories routinely use flow cytometry to evaluate stallion semen quality. However, objective and practical tools for the on-field interpretation of data concerning fertilizing potential are scarce. A panel of nine tests, evaluating a large number of compartments or functions of the spermatozoa: motility, morphology, viability, mitochondrial activity, oxidation level, acrosome integrity, DNA integrity, "organization" of the plasma membrane, and hypoosmotic resistance, was applied to a population of 43 stallions, 33 of which showing widely differing fertilities (19%-84% pregnancy rat...
Hitting the ground running: Evaluating an integrated racehorse limb and race surface computational model. Race surface mechanics contribute to musculoskeletal injury in racehorses. These mechanics affect ground reaction forces applied to the hoof, and thus limb motions during stance that can contribute to musculoskeletal pathologies. Race surface design has been largely empirical within the industry, with little uniform consensus for injury prevention and performance. Furthermore, race surface installations are too expensive to install experimentally. The objective of this research was to develop and evaluate an integrated racehorse limb and race surface computational model. Combined forward/inver...
Genomic prediction of unordered categorical traits: an application to subpopulation assignment in German Warmblood horses. Categorical traits without ordinal representation of classes do not qualify for threshold models. Alternatively, the multinomial problem can be assessed by a sequence of independent binary contrasts using schemes such as one-vs-all or one-vs-one. Class probabilities can be arrived at by normalization or pair-wise coupling strategies. We assessed the predictive ability of whole-genome regression models and support vector machines for the classification of horses into four German Warmblood breeds. Results: Prediction accuracies of leave-one-out cross-validation were high and ranged from 0.75 to ...
Lower attention to daily environment: a novel cue for detecting chronic horses’ back pain? Chronic pain is thought to affect patients' cognitive functioning, including attention. Loss of attention is likely to have an impact on the execution of daily tasks, and, therefore, to have negative effects. However, relationships between chronic pain and cognitive deficits are still debated. Pre-clinical studies using laboratory animals prove useful to model pain-related cognitive impairment, but animal models had to predict effects in the real world. This study investigates attentional engagement of domestic horses by comparing observations in a home setting and evaluations of vertebral dis...
Key Factors Affecting Reproductive Success of Thoroughbred Mares and Stallions on a Commercial Stud Farm. To evaluate factors contributing to fertility of thoroughbred mares, data from 3743 oestrous periods of 2385 mares were collected on a large thoroughbred farm in Ireland. Fourteen stallions (mean age 8.3 years; range 4-15 years) had bred 2385 mares (mean age 9.4 years; range 3-24 years). Maiden mares accounted for 12%, mares with a foal at foot for 64%, and barren, slipped or rested mares for 24% of the total. The mean pregnancy rate per cycle was 67.8% (68.6% in year 1 and 66.9% in year 2). Backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was utilized to develop two models to eval...
Bodyweight change aids prediction of survival in chronic equine grass sickness. Objective criteria for predicting survival of chronic grass sickness cases are currently lacking. Objective: To determine whether the rate and/or magnitude of bodyweight change during hospitalisation of chronic grass sickness cases can provide an objective predictor of survival to discharge from hospital. Clinicians' recorded indication(s) for euthanasia were also reviewed. Methods: Single centre retrospective observational study. Methods: Case records of all horses admitted for management of chronic grass sickness to The Dick Vet Equine Hospital between 1998 and 2013 were analysed. Case backg...
Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe. West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habit...
Modelling repeated competition records in genetic evaluations of Danish sport horses. Genetic evaluations of sport performance typically consider competition records of ranking points in each competition, accumulated lifetime points or annual earnings. Repeated observations have the advantage of allowing for adjustment of effects associated with each competition such as rider experience, judge and competing horses, but also demands more computer capacity than single-trait records, which could prohibit multiple-trait evaluations. The aim of the study was to compare CPU times, estimated breeding values (EBVs), reliabilities and model prediction abilities when modelling repeated c...
Mapping eastern equine encephalitis virus risk for white-tailed deer in Michigan. Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is often fatal to humans and horses. Some species including white-tailed deer and passerine birds can survive infection with the EEE virus (EEEV) and develop antibodies that can be detected using laboratory techniques. In this way, collected serum samples from free ranging white-tailed deer can be used to monitor the presence of the virus in ecosystems. This study developed and tested a risk index model designed to predict EEEV activity in white-tailed deer in a three-county area of Michigan. The model evaluates EEEV risk...
Speed and Cardiac Recovery Variables Predict the Probability of Elimination in Equine Endurance Events. Nearly 50% of the horses participating in endurance events are eliminated at a veterinary examination (a vet gate). Detecting unfit horses before a health problem occurs and treatment is required is a challenge for veterinarians but is essential for improving equine welfare. We hypothesized that it would be possible to detect unfit horses earlier in the event by measuring heart rate recovery variables. Hence, the objective of the present study was to compute logistic regressions of heart rate, cardiac recovery time and average speed data recorded at the previous vet gate (n-1) and thus predict...
Energetics of endurance exercise in young horses determined by nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Long-term endurance exercise severely affects metabolism in both human and animal athletes resulting in serious risk of metabolic disorders during or after competition. Young horses (up to 6 years old) can compete in races up to 90 km despite limited scientific knowledge of energetic metabolism responses to long distance exercise in these animals. The hypothesis of this study was that there would be a strong effect of endurance exercise on the metabolomic profiles of young horses and that the energetic metabolism response in young horses would be different from that of more experienced horses....
Novel in vitro diagnosis of equine allergies using a protein array and mathematical modelling approach: a proof of concept using insect bite hypersensitivity. Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is a seasonal recurrent skin allergy of horses caused by IgE-mediated reactions to allergens present in the saliva of biting insects of the genus Culicoides, and possibly also Simulium and Stomoxys species. In this work we show that protein microarrays containing complex extracts and pure proteins, including recombinant Culicoides allergens, can be used as a powerful technique for the diagnosis of IBH. Besides the obvious advantages such as general profiling and use of few microliters of samples, this microarray technique permits automation and allows the gen...
Estimation of articular cartilage properties using multivariate analysis of optical coherence tomography signal. The aim was to investigate the applicability of multivariate analysis of optical coherence tomography (OCT) information for determining structural integrity, composition and mechanical properties of articular cartilage. Methods: Equine osteochondral samples (N = 65) were imaged with OCT, and their total attenuation and backscattering coefficients (μt and μb) were measured. Subsequently, the Mankin score, optical density (OD) describing the fixed charge density, light absorbance in amide I region (Aamide), collagen orientation, permeability, fibril network modulus (Ef) and non-fibrillar mat...
Risk factors for recurrence of atrial fibrillation in horses after cardioversion to sinus rhythm. Although atrial fibrillation (AF) can be successfully treated in horses, recurrence occurs frequently. In humans, atrial function after cardioversion can predict recurrence. Objective: To examine the prognostic value of atrial mechanical function at 24 hours after cardioversion and other potential predictor variables for AF recurrence in horses. Methods: 117 horses treated for AF at 4 referral centers. Methods: Retrospective study. Inclusion criteria were successful cardioversion, echocardiography at 24 hours after cardioversion and ≥4 months follow-up. To determine factors associated with A...
A mechanostatistical approach to cortical bone remodelling: an equine model. In this study, the development of a mechanostatistical model of three-dimensional cortical bone remodelling informed with in vivo equine data is presented. The equine model was chosen as it is highly translational to the human condition due to similar Haversian systems, availability of in vivo bone strain and biomarker data, and furthermore, equine models are recommended by the US Federal Drugs Administration for comparative joint research. The model was derived from micro-computed tomography imaged specimens taken from the equine third metacarpal bone, and the Frost-based 'mechanostat' was in...
A model for the dynamics of the free-living stages of equine cyathostomins. Anthelmintic resistance in strongyle nematode parasites of horses is an expanding global problem and steps need to be taken to slow its development before control becomes more problematic. A move away from traditional deworming programmes, involving frequent whole-herd treatments with broad spectrum anthelmintics, to a more strategic or targeted use of chemicals is required. However, anthelmintic resistance management strategies which also maintain effective control are invariably more complicated and often require a greater understanding of both nematode epidemiology and grazing management, t...
Correlation of radiographic measurements of structures of the equine foot with lesions detected on magnetic resonance imaging. There are few studies on the correlations between radiographic measurements of the foot and abnormalities of specific structures found with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Objective: To document the relationship between radiographic measurements of the equine foot and the presence of lesions in the foot on MRI. We hypothesised that different radiographic measurements would be associated with specific lesions detected by MRI. Methods: Retrospective analysis of radiographs and MRI studies. Methods: Seventy-four feet from 52 lame horses were included. Twenty parameters were measured on radiogra...
Modeling equine race surface vertical mechanical behaviors in a musculoskeletal modeling environment. Race surfaces have been associated with the incidence of racehorse musculoskeletal injury, the leading cause of racehorse attrition. Optimal race surface mechanical behaviors that minimize injury risk are unknown. Computational models are an economical method to determine optimal mechanical behaviors. Previously developed equine musculoskeletal models utilized ground reaction floor models designed to simulate a stiff, smooth floor appropriate for a human gait laboratory. Our objective was to develop a computational race surface model (two force-displacement functions, one linear and one nonlin...
Outcome of adult horses with botulism treated at a veterinary hospital: 92 cases (1989-2013). There are no studies evaluating a large population of adult horses treated for botulism. Reported survival rates in outbreak situations are low; however, many horses in outbreaks do not receive treatment. Objective: That adult horses treated at a veterinary hospital would have improved survival compared to outbreak situations. Additional aims included identification of predictors of nonsurvival. Methods: All horses greater than 6 months of age with a final diagnosis of botulism admitted to a veterinary teaching hospital between 1989 and 2013 were included. Methods: Retrospective study. Histori...
Using Bayes’ rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance. In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the post...
