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Topic:Predictive Model

Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
A computer-derived protocol using recursive partitioning to aid in estimating prognosis of horses with abdominal pain in referral hospitals. Pascoe PJ, Ducharme NG, Ducharme GR, Lumsden JH.In order to determine which variables are useful and accurate in estimating prognosis in horses with abdominal pain, data were analyzed from 231 horses presented at a veterinary teaching hospital. Using multiple stepwise discriminant analysis in a recursive partition model, we obtained a decision protocol that identified survivors and nonsurvivors. The prevalence of survivors was 61% in this population. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this model were 71, 83, 87 and 65%, respectively. This decision protocol was validated by Jackknife classification a...
Accuracy of prediction of the liveweight of horses from body measurements.
The Veterinary record    November 25, 1989   Volume 125, Issue 22 549-553 doi: 10.1136/vr.125.22.549
Jones RS, Lawrence TL, Veevers A, Cleave N, Hall J.Fifty-three horses, all but two of them over two years of age and varying in type, sex and liveweight (230 to 707 kg) were weighed and seven different body measurements were recorded in duplicate by a single operator. The best overall prediction of liveweight using an equation with two variables was found to be: liveweight (kg) = (umbilical girth [cm])1.78 X (length of body from tuber ischii to elbow [cm]0.97/3011). This equation had an adjusted R2 value of 94.9 per cent and was derived from the pooled data, because differences of sex, type and weight did not significantly affect the relations...
A computer-derived protocol to aid in selecting medical versus surgical treatment of horses with abdominal pain.
Equine veterinary journal    November 1, 1989   Volume 21, Issue 6 447-450 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1989.tb02194.x
Ducharme NG, Pascoe PJ, Lumsden JH, Ducharme GR.In order to determine which variables are useful in identifying horses with abdominal pain requiring surgery, data were analysed from 219 horses presented at one veterinary teaching hospital. Using multiple stepwise discriminant analysis with a recursive partitioning algorithm, we obtained a decision tree that identifies surgical and non-surgical patients. The prevalence of surgical patients was 79 per cent in this population. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this decision tree were 99 per cent, 55 per cent, 90 per cent and 99 per cent respectively. ...
Corrections for prognostic index equation.
American journal of veterinary research    August 1, 1989   Volume 50, Issue 8 1429 
Fischer AT.No abstract available
Diagnostic and prognostic procedures for equine colic surgery.
The Veterinary clinics of North America. Equine practice    August 1, 1989   Volume 5, Issue 2 335-350 doi: 10.1016/s0749-0739(17)30592-8
Fischer AT.Evaluation of the horse with colic has always been challenging since the patient's large size precludes many of the diagnostic imaging procedures commonly used in human medicine. Diagnostic methods such as radiography, laparoscopy, endoscopy, and peritoneal fluid analysis can serve to increase the accuracy of presurgical evaluation. Prognosis in individual cases can be best predicted by careful analysis of selected clinicopathological data, physical examination findings, and surgical biopsies. However, no predictive model is 100 per cent accurate, and clinicians must continue to rely on clinic...
Kinematic analysis of cutting horses working a mechanical flag.
American journal of veterinary research    August 1, 1989   Volume 50, Issue 8 1418-1422 
Clayton HM.High-speed cinematography was used to record the movements of 12 cutting horses performing a standard test with a mechanical flag. Based on their previous competitive performances, horses were classified into 2 groups: group 1, composed of 5 moderately successful or average performers that had won less than $35,000 in purse money; and group 2, composed of 7 highly successful or elite performances that had amassed greater than $35,000 in competition earnings. Analysis of the results indicated that, compared with horses of the average group, the elite horses had faster reaction times in response...
Analysis of post mortem aqueous humour chemistry in the horse, with particular reference to urea nitrogen and creatinine.
Equine veterinary journal    July 1, 1989   Volume 21, Issue 4 288-291 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1989.tb02170.x
Cantor GH, Palmer GH, Fenwick BW.The concentrations of several post mortem aqueous humour chemical constituents were compared with ante mortem serum chemical values in the horse. Urea nitrogen and creatinine values in post mortem aqueous humour were good predictors of ante mortem serum values. Aqueous humour urea nitrogen increased only slightly and creatinine did not change significantly for up to 24 h after death. Formulae were derived for calculating estimated ante mortem serum urea nitrogen and creatinine from aqueous humour values obtained after death. These results from normal horses identify analytes that are accurate ...
Evaluation of three strip tests for measuring electrolytes in mares’ pre-partum mammary secretions and for predicting parturition.
Equine veterinary journal    May 1, 1989   Volume 21, Issue 3 196-200 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1989.tb02143.x
Ousey JC, Delclaux M, Rossdale PD.Three strip test kits which measure calcium and/or magnesium in mares' mammary secretions were compared and assessed for their accuracy in:- 1) measuring these electrolytes compared to standard laboratory measurements, and 2) predicting the time of parturition. Daily samples of mammary secretions were obtained pre-partum from 35 Thoroughbred mares and allocated a score. Measurement of mammary secretion calcium and/or magnesium by the strip tests and laboratory methods correlated significantly (P less than 0.001). The results obtained for prediction of parturition were analysed by two methods. ...
Predicting ovulation in the mare on the basis of follicular growth and serum oestrone sulphate and progesterone levels.
Zentralblatt fur Veterinarmedizin. Reihe A    April 1, 1989   Volume 36, Issue 4 299-304 doi: 10.1111/j.1439-0442.1989.tb00734.x
Koskinen E, Kuntsi H, Lindeberg H, Katila T.Follicular growth and hormone determinations were used to predict ovulation in the mare. Thirty Finnhorse mares were used for the investigation and 38 oestrous cycles were studied. The mares were examined by rectal palpation and ultrasonography every 6 hours during late oestrus. Daily blood samples were obtained for progesterone and oestrone sulphate determination. The preovulatory follicle grew 3 mm a day up to 2 days before ovulation. The size then remained constant, before diminishing by 2-3 mm during the last 12 hours. The maximal diameter of the follicle was 43 +/- 4 mm. In 89% of the fol...
‘By the seat of your pants’ or multivariable predictive modelling.
Equine veterinary journal    March 1, 1989   Volume 21, Issue 2 83-84 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1989.tb02099.x
Reeves MJ, Curtis CR.No abstract available
Predictive utility of pre-partum temperature changes in the mare.
Equine veterinary journal    March 1, 1989   Volume 21, Issue 2 116-118 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1989.tb02111.x
Haluska GJ, Wilkins K.Rectal temperature was recorded from 22 mares at 0700, 1500 and 2300 h daily for seven days pre-partum and one day post partum. A circadian variation in rectal temperature was present with the lowest temperature recorded at 0700 h. Because of this, the mares were divided into three groups based on time of parturition; those foaling between 0700 and 1500 h (n = 2); between 1500 and 2300 h (n = 13); and between 2300 and 0700 h (n = 7). On the day prior to delivery (Day -1) the circadian pattern was absent because the nocturnal increase did not occur. A significant decrease in temperature was rec...
Prognosis in equine colic patients using multivariable analysis. Reeves MJ, Curtis CR, Salman MD, Hilbert BJ.Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate prognosis in 308 horses referred to the University of Minnesota veterinary teaching hospital with colic. Bivariate results identified the following significant individual parameters: absent or hypomotile abdominal sounds, medical or surgical classification, peritoneal fluid total protein, anion gap, serum glucose, capillary refill time, blood pH, heart rate, packed cell volume, base excess, serum chloride, plasma bicarbonate, serum urinary nitrogen and age. Two multivariable prognostic models were developed using logistic regression. Model I...
Prognostic index for acute abdominal crisis (colic) in horses.
American journal of veterinary research    November 1, 1988   Volume 49, Issue 11 1969-1971 
Orsini JA, Elser AH, Galligan DT, Donawick WJ, Kronfeld DS.Selected physical and laboratory findings in 29 horses with acute abdominal crisis were evaluated retrospectively with a logistic regression equation to predict survival or death. Of 17 variables examined, 2 were found to have good predictive correlation. Serum lactate and packed cell volume had a combined predictive value of 94%. Packed cell volume mean values of 43 and 50%, respectively, differentiated survival from death. Serum lactate values of 28.18 mg/dl and 51.28 mg/dl differentiated survival and death. Analysis of data from a previous study of 36 horses with the logistic regression equ...
Serum and peritoneal fluid phosphate concentrations as predictors of major intestinal injury associated with equine colic.
Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association    October 15, 1988   Volume 193, Issue 8 927-931 
Arden WA, Stick JA.To determine the reliability with which inorganic phosphorus (phosphate) concentrations can be used to predict major intestinal injury associated with equine colic, phosphate concentrations were measured in serum, peritoneal fluid, or both from 9 clinically normal adult horses (group A), 37 horses successfully managed medically for signs of abdominal pain (group B), 26 horses with signs of abdominal pain and undergoing exploratory laparotomy without intestinal resection (group C), and 26 horses undergoing intestinal resection or euthanasia for extensive intestinal lesions (group D). Peritoneal...
The gait of pacers. 2: factors influencing pacing speed.
Equine veterinary journal    September 1, 1988   Volume 20, Issue 5 347-351 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1988.tb01543.x
Wilson BD, Neal RJ, Howard A, Groenedyk S.Standardbred pacers were studied at four different nominated speeds and selected gait kinematics were analysed to determine factors which contribute to pacing speed. A deterministic model is proposed in which pacing speed is a function of stride length and stride timing variables. Stance length and suspension time remained relatively constant over the different pacing speeds. Variables which discriminated best between pacing speeds were suspension length and overlap time. At near maximal speed, the pacers increased speeds with increased stride length. This was attributed to an increased suspen...
Decision for surgery.
The Veterinary clinics of North America. Equine practice    April 1, 1988   Volume 4, Issue 1 51-61 doi: 10.1016/s0749-0739(17)30649-1
Ducharme NG, Lowe JE.Based on the clinical impression and the current knowledge of the clinical variables (rectal examination, abdominal distention, abdominal fluid, intractable pain) most likely to differentiate between medical and surgical cases, three decision trees are provided as a guide to making the management decision in a horse with abdominal pain. Prior elimination of horses with limited life expectancy because of age or function or where financial constraints are present is understood. It must be emphasized that most of the information presently available originates from referral centers where the preva...
Estimation of human reproductive risk from animal studies: determination of interspecies extrapolation factors for steroid hormone effects on the male.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis    March 1, 1988   Volume 8, Issue 1 27-33 doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1988.tb01151.x
Meistrich ML.The problem of extrapolating effects of reproductive toxins on experimental animals to predict the doses that would produce infertility in human males is discussed using published data on effects of testosterone and estradiol on sperm production in the rat, rabbit, rhesus monkey, ram, stallion, and humans. This analysis indicates that calculation of the dose of testosterone that reduces human sperm counts by a given percentage is best done using the dose administered to laboratory animals expressed on the basis of body weight, as opposed to some other parameter such as body surface area. A sur...
Development and validation of multivariable models to predict the need for surgery and prognosis in equine colic patients.
Acta veterinaria Scandinavica. Supplementum    January 1, 1988   Volume 84 329-332 
Reeves MJ, Curtis CR, Salman MD, Stashak TS, Reif JS.No abstract available
Body condition scoring and weight estimation of horses.
Equine veterinary journal    January 1, 1988   Volume 20, Issue 1 41-45 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1988.tb01451.x
Carroll CL, Huntington PJ.Three hundred and seventy two horses of varying breeds, height and fatness were weighed and measured for height at the withers. They were assessed for condition score by adaptation of a previously published method. The heart girth and length of 281 of the horses were also measured. Weight of horses was highly correlated (P less than 0.001) with height (r2 = 0.62), condition score (r2 = 0.22) and girth2 x length (r2 = 0.90). Nomograms were constructed to predict weight from height and condition score, and girth and length measurements. Weight can also be accurately estimated from the formula: (...
Monitoring the progression of renal failure in a horse with polycystic kidney disease: use of the reciprocal of serum creatinine concentration and sodium sulfanilate clearance half-time.
Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association    September 1, 1987   Volume 191, Issue 5 565-568 
Bertone JJ, Traub-Dargatz JL, Fettman MJ, Wilke L, Wrigley RH, Jaenke R, Paulsen ME.Sequential reciprocals of serum creatinine concentration and sodium sulfanilate clearance half-times were used to monitor a horse with chronic renal failure. The horse was diagnosed as having polycystic kidney disease; at least one cyst was of distal tubular origin. Using the plots of the sequential data, a reasonably accurate prediction was made for complete renal decompensation to develop.
Liquid-solid extraction conditions predicted by liquid chromatography for selective isolation of sulfoconjugated steroids from equine urine.
Analytical chemistry    August 1, 1987   Volume 59, Issue 15 1980-1984 doi: 10.1021/ac00142a018
Weidolf LO, Henion JD.No abstract available
Prediction of pharmacokinetic profiles of ampicillin sodium, gentamicin sulfate, and combination ampicillin sodium-gentamicin sulfate in serum and synovia of healthy horses.
American journal of veterinary research    July 1, 1986   Volume 47, Issue 7 1590-1596 
Bowman KF, Dix LP, Riond JL, Riviere JE.Pharmacokinetics of ampicillin sodium (11 mg/kg), gentamicin sulfate (2.2 mg/kg), and combination ampicillin sodium-gentamicin sulfate were determined for serum and synovia of healthy horses given single-dose IV injection and were not found to be different from those from other reports; however, a prolonged terminal gamma-phase for gentamicin (8,498 +/- 1,842 minutes) in serum of horses was found to exist. Pharmacokinetic interaction between combination ampicillin sodium-gentamicin sulfate was not observed int he serum or synovia. Prediction of ampicillin sodium or gentamicin sulfate concentra...
An energetic basis of equine performance.
Equine veterinary journal    April 1, 1983   Volume 15, Issue 2 123-133 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1983.tb01734.x
McMiken DF.Although different physiological and behavioural attributes are needed for various types of equine competition, successful racing depends primarily on the animal's metabolic ability to convert chemical energy to mechanical energy--the function of muscle. Components of these energetic processes include the rate, efficiency and interaction of aerobic and anaerobic metabolism in muscle and the supply and utilisation of fuel. In anaerobic work like racing, fatigue processes may be largely regarded as a function of an intramuscular fuel (phosphogen) depletion, despite the fact that substrates are s...
Predicted secondary structure of horse muscle acylphosphatase. Comparison with circular dichroism measurements.
Physiological chemistry and physics    January 1, 1981   Volume 13, Issue 3 267-273 
Camici G, Manao G, Cappugi G, Ramponi G.We have predicted the secondary structure of horse muscle acylphosphatase by the statistical method of Chou and Fasman. In addition, we have studied the circular dichroism spectra of the enzyme, obtaining values for comparison to the predicted results. Discrepancies were found for the alpha-helix content estimated by the two methods.
The use of electrocardiography to estimate heart weight and predict performance in the racehorse.
Australian veterinary journal    November 1, 1980   Volume 56, Issue 11 557-559 doi: 10.1111/j.1751-0813.1980.tb02592.x
No abstract available
Body composition of the horse.
Equine veterinary journal    January 1, 1979   Volume 11, Issue 1 39-47 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1979.tb01295.x
Webb AI, Weaver BM.Seventeen horses were dissected and their organs and tissues weighed. The results of these dissections are presented together with comparisons of the data with that already available in the literature. Predictive equations for organs and tissue weights are also given which were derived by comparison of linear and allometric regression models using 4 different body weight indices.
Sources of variation in response intervals after prostaglandin treatment in mares with functional corpora lutea.
Journal of reproduction and fertility. Supplement    January 1, 1979   Issue 27 229-235 
Loy RG, Buell JR, Stevenson W, Hamm D.Sixty-two non-cycling mares were classified according to the size of largest follicles at the time of treatment with Prostalene, an analogue of prostaglandin (PG) F-2 alpha. Although oestrus occurred in only 77.4% of mares, 98.4% ovulated at an average of 6.8 days after treatment. Greatest variance of interval to ovulation was observed in mares having follicles greater than or equal to 40 mm at the time of treatment. This was due to regression of large follicles about one-third of the time and later ovulation of a succeeding follicle. This resulted also in greatest uncertainty of prediction of...
Eastern equine encephalitis in Massachusetts, 1957-1976. A prospective study centered upon analyses of mosquitoes.
American journal of epidemiology    February 1, 1978   Volume 107, Issue 2 170-178 doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112519
Grady GF, Maxfield HK, Hildreth SW, Timperi RJ, Gilfillan RF, Rosenau BJ, Francy DB, Calisher CH, Marcus LC, Madoff MA.Reappearance of eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) in Massachusetts residents in the 1970's provided an opportunity to assess the predictive value of data on rainfall, EEE in horses, and carriage of EEE virus (EEEV) by mosquitoes, factors which had been studied annually since the last EEE outbreak in 1955-1956. The cycle of multiple cases during 1973-1975 started in a second consecutive year of rainfall that exceeded the annual mean by more than 20 cm, conditions recapitulating the 1955-1956 experience. In 1973, widespread EEE fatalities in horses presaged human cases, another recapitulation of...
Secular trends of annual morbidities of animal infectious diseases.
National Institute of Animal Health quarterly    January 1, 1977   Volume 17, Issue 4 179-183 
Takizawa T, Ito T.Supposing two mathematical models, additive and multiplicative, the authors estimated the secular trends of annual morbidities (1949 approximately 1975) of twelve infectious diseases of domestic animals. For each diseases ten different trend curves were fitted. It was found that five regression equations, namely, those for bovine trichomoniasis, bovine tuberculosis, equine infectious anemia, pullorum disease in chickens, and foulbrood, gave the coefficient of determination of 97.9, 92.7, 91.0, 93.5, and 85.2%, respectively. Four of them were multiplicative, and the remaining one for equine inf...
A new concept of normal values.
Modern veterinary practice    September 1, 1976   Volume 57, Issue 9 732-738 
Blackmore DJ.No abstract available
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