Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Staniar WB, Kronfeld DS, Hoffman RM, Wilson JA, Harris PA.Monitoring weight of foals is a useful management practice to aid in maximising athletic potential while minimising risks associated with deviations from normal growth. Objective: To develop predictive equations for weight, based on linear measurements of growing Thoroughbreds (TBs). Methods: Morphometric equations predicting weight from measurements of the trunk and legs were developed from data of 153 foals. The accuracy, precision and bias of the best fitting equation were compared to published equations using a naive data set of 22 foals. Results: Accuracy and precision were maximised with...
Brown DJ, Rush JE, MacGregor J, Ross JN, Brewer B, Rand WM.A novel method for quantitative echocardiographic interpretations is introduced based on the calculation of ratio indices in which each raw M-mode measurement is divided by the aortic root dimension (Ao). "Aorta-based" indices were calculated with the animal's measured aortic root dimension (Ao(m)) as the length standard. Conversely, "weight-based" indices employed an idealized estimate of aortic dimension (Ao(w)) with a weighted least squares linear regression against the cube root of body weight (Ao(w) = kW(1/3)). Use of these indices circumvented undesirable statistical characteristics inhe...
Durham AE, Newton JR, Smith KC, Hillyer MH, Hillyer LL, Smith MR, Marr CM.Results of noninvasive tests of liver disease do not always correlate with the degree of hepatic disease nor outcome of the case. Objective: To investigate the prognostic value of data collected using noninvasive tests during the investigation of cases of suspected liver disease in mature horses. Objective: Much of the data gathered during the investigation of suspected hepatopathy cases offers little prognostic guidance and interpretation of such data can be misleading. Methods: The results from a range of common and noninvasive diagnostic techniques applied in 116 mature horses with suspecte...
Colenbrander B, Gadella BM, Stout TA.Pregnancy rates in managed horse populations depend on the innate fertility of the mares and stallions involved and on the quality of breeding management. Of course, because a single stallion usually mates many mares, stallion fertility is a critical factor in the overall success of a breeding program. Unfortunately, accurate evaluation of stallion fertility per se requires a large number of normal mares to be mated and is necessarily retrospective. Rather, the ideal is to predict fertility in advance of the stallion's breeding career, and this is currently attempted by way of a thorough physi...
Barker CM, Reisen WK, Kramer VL.The California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan recently was developed to provide a semi-quantitative means for assessing risk for western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) or St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses and to provide intervention guidelines for mosquito control and public health agencies during periods of heightened risk for human infection. West Nile virus recently has arrived in California, and the response plan also will provide a baseline for assessing the risk for human and equine infection with this virus. In the response plan, overall risk is calculated by ave...
de Bruijn CM, Wensing T, van Nieuwstadt RA.The glutaraldehyde coagulation test is a semi-quantitative test used to determine the gammaglobulin concentration in serum. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the different modifications of this test by determining the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and the prevalence of hypogammaglobulinemia in foals. The results of the glutaraldehyde coagulation test were compared with the serum gammaglobulin concentration as a reference value, determined by measuring total serum protein and the serum protein spectrum. It was concluded that the glut...
Hill AE, Carpenter TE, Gardner IA, Stover SM.To evaluate a Markov-chain model for the development of forelimb injuries in Thoroughbreds and to use the model to determine effects of reducing sprint distance on incidence of metacarpal condylar fracture (CDY) and severe suspensory apparatus injury (SSAI). Methods: Weekly exercise and injury data for 122 Thoroughbreds during racing or training. Methods: Weekly data were used to construct a Markov-chain model with 5 states (uninjured [UNINJ], palpable suspensory apparatus injury [PSAII, SSAI, CDY, and lost to follow-up [LOST]). Transition probabilities between UNINJ and PSAI were estimated as...
Schroter RC, Marlin DJ.This study provides an objective method for estimating the oxygen consumption of horses while running on variable slopes so that realistic comparisons may be made of the locomotory transport cost involved in 3-day events, particularly the Speed and Endurance Test, at sites of differing terrain. A knowledge of the work profile over a particular course would enable competitors to plan speed and interval times appropriately along its length. We have developed a semi-empirical, but mechanistically based, model to calculate the oxygen cost of transport [COTpath in ml O2/kg/m path] for running on th...
Davies HM.In Thoroughbred racehorses, the dorsal cortex (DC) of the third metacarpal bone (MC3) enlarges when horses are first exposed to fast exercise speeds. It is now possible to measure ultrasound speed through 3 to 5 mm depths of bone around the bone shaft using Sunlight Medical's 'Omnisense' machine. The aim of this experiment was to determine whether the ultrasound speed measured in the surface 3-5 mm of the midshaft dorsal cortex of MC3 could be related directly to the midshaft shape and size of the MC3s of young Thoroughbred racehorses at the same stage of training. Sixteen 2-year-old and sixte...
Proudman CJ, Smith JE, Edwards GB, French NP.Colic surgery is a frequently performed operation with high postoperative mortality. This study was undertaken to identify variables associated with decreased postoperative survival. We used data from 321 horse years of postoperative survival time to model the probability of survival following recovery from colic surgery. Continuous variables were modelled using a 6 variable, penalised Cox regression model. This demonstrated approximately linear relationships between survival and the following variables: increase in packed cell volume (PCV), intestinal resection length, time to surgery (interv...
Matthews S, Dart AJ, Reid SW, Dowling BA, Hodgson DR.To determine the predictive values, sensitivity and specificity of abdominal fluid variables associated with the need for surgery in horses with an acute abdominal crisis. Methods: Retrospective study. Methods: Two-hundred and thirty-six horses examined for signs of abdominal pain between January 1993 and June 1999. Methods: Breed, age and gender of the horse and colour, total protein concentration and total nucleated cell count of an abdominal fluid sample were recorded. Colour of the abdominal fluid was classified as normal if it was yellow and transparent. Turbid fluid or fluid that was ser...
Hinterhofer C, Stanek C, Haider H.A finite element (FE) hoof capsule was built as a small, symmetrical forelimb hoof on IDEAS* as a model for calculation and visualisation of stress and displacement of the equine hoof capsule. The model's loading was performed according to the suspension of the coffin bone within the hoof wall (pulling force) and over the sole and frog (compressing force) with a total of 3000 N. Restraints of the model's ground nodes and surface wall nodes were defined for simulation of 4 shoeing situations: a regular horseshoe, a horseshoe with a toe clip, a horseshoe with regular side clips and a horseshoe w...
Khumsap S, Clayton HM, Lanovaz JL.The objectives of this study were to measure the effect of walking velocity on net joint moments and joint powers in the hindlimb during stance and to use the data to predict these variables at different walking velocities. Videographic and force data were collected synchronously from 5 sound horses walking over a force plate at a range of velocities. Force and kinematic data from 56 trials were combined using an inverse dynamic solution to determine net joint moments and joint powers. Analysis by simple regression and correlation (P or = 0.30, r > 0.50) showed that, in early stance, there...
Stick JA, Peloso JG, Morehead JP, Lloyd J, Eberhart S, Padungtod P, Derksen FJ.To compare endoscopic findings of the upper portion of the respiratory tract in Thoroughbred yearlings with their subsequent race records to determine whether subjective assessment of airway function may be used as a predictor of future racing performance. Methods: Retrospective study. Methods: 427 Thoroughbred yearlings. Methods: Endoscopic examination findings were obtained from the medical records and the videoendoscopic repository of the Keeneland 1996 September yearling sales. Racing records were requested for the yearlings through the end of their 4-year-old racing season (1997-2000). Tw...
Meershoek LS, van den Bogert AJ, Schamhardt HC.To describe a method to calculate flexor tendon forces on the basis of inverse dynamic analysis and an in vitro model of the equine forelimb and to quantify parameters for the model. Methods: 38 forelimbs of 23 horses that each had an estimated body mass of > or = 500 kg. Methods: Longitudinal limb sections were used to determine the lines of action of the tendons. Additionally, limb and tendon loading experiments were performed to determine mechanical properties of the flexor tendons. Results: The study quantified the parameters for a pulley model to describe the lines of action. Furthermo...
Taylor D, Kuiper JH.This paper addresses an anomaly which exists in the current literature regarding stress fractures. Analysis of the data on fatigue strength of bone samples in vitro would conclude that these fractures should never occur at the strain levels known to occur in vivo. This anomaly can be resolved by including in the analysis the effect of stressed volume, whereby larger volumes of material are expected to have worse fatigue properties. A Weibull analysis was used to predict the probability of failure, Pf; this was an upper-bound prediction because it did not include the effects of remodelling and ...
Khumsap S, Clayton HM, Lanovaz JL.To measure the effect of subject velocity on hind limb ground reaction force variables at the walk and to use the data to predict the force variables at different walking velocities in horses. Methods: 5 clinically normal horses. Methods: Kinematic and force data were collected simultaneously. Each horse was led over a force plate at a range of walking velocities. Stance duration and force data were recorded for the right hind limb. To avoid the effect of horse size on the outcome variables, the 8 force variables were standardized to body mass and height at the shoulders. Velocity was standard...
Thoefner MB, Ersbøll AK, Hesselholt M.A prospective survey of 528 colic horses, referred to the Large Animal Hospital at the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University of Copenhagen, Denmark, during the period August 1994 to December 1998, was undertaken to develop a predictive model for application in the clinical assessment of prognosis. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, 357 colic cases were used in the elaboration of a simple clinical-practical model consisting of degree of pain, packed cell volume, capillary refill time and rectal temperature. The relationship between rectal temperature and outcome (survival/...
de la Rua-Domenech R, Reid SW, González-Zariquiey AE, Wood JL, Gettinby G.A Monte Carlo model that simulates the management life cycle of a horse population in training on a Thoroughbred flat racing yard (i.e. stable) was developed for computer implementation. Each horse was characterised by several state variables. Discrete events at the horse level were triggered stochastically to reflect uncertainty about some input assumptions and heterogeneity of the horse population in a particular yard. This mathematical model was subsequently used to mimic the spread of equine influenza (EI) within a typical yard following the introduction of one or several infectious horses...
Forro M, Cieslar S, Ecker GL, Walzak A, Hahn J, Lindinger MI.The purposes of this study were 1) to determine the compartmentation of body water in horses by using indicator dilution techniques and 2) to simultaneously measure bioelectrical impedance to current flow at impulse current frequencies of 5 and 200 kHz to formulate predictive equations that could be used to estimate total body water (TBW), extracellular fluid volume (ECFV), and intracellular fluid volume (ICFV). Eight horses and ponies weighing from 214 to 636 kg had catheters placed into the left and right jugular veins. Deuterium oxide, sodium thiocyanate, and Evans blue were infused for the...
Davie AL, Evans DJ.The associations between velocity during a standardized, submaximal 800-m exercise test and blood lactate concentration after exercise were investigated in Thoroughbred racehorses on sand and grass racetracks. Predicted lactate concentrations for each horse's exercise test velocity were calculated from the line of best fit derived from results at each racetrack. The repeatability of the differences between the measured and predicted blood lactate response to exercise was also investigated. Exercise tests were conducted at speeds ranging from 12.8 to 16.6 m/s. The variability of velocity within...
Schroter RC, Leeming A, Denny E, Bharath A, Marlin DJ.Recently we proposed that exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage (EIPH) results from locomotory-impact-induced trauma by impact of the scapula on the chest wall during footfall and the consequent transmission of waves through the lung. A computational model has been developed to demonstrate that wave amplification and focusing occur in the dorsocaudal tip of the lung for waves originating on the anterior subscapular surface. The propagation of an acoustic wave was investigated in a simplified 2-dimensional representation of a vertical anterio-dorsal section of horse lung. It was demonstrated t...
Rathi R, Nielen M, Cheng FP, van Buiten A, Colenbrander B.Subfertility in stallions is attributed to the inability of spermatozoa to undergo the acrosome reaction in response to progesterone. In the present study, it was assessed whether there is a correlation between stallion fertility, defined on the basis of first cycle foaling rate and first cycle 'non-return rate', and the proportion of spermatozoa with exposed progesterone receptors on their plasma membranes. Semen from Dutch Warmblood (n=10) and Friesian (n=4) stallions was analysed. Progesterone 3-(o-carboxymethyl) oxime-BSA coupled with fluorescein isothiocyanate was used as a progesterone r...
Brinsko SP, Van Wagner GS, Graham JK, Squires EL.The aim of the present study was to determine whether there are characteristics of fresh, cooled and frozen-thawed semen samples that can be used to predict the suitability of stallion semen for preservation by cooling or freezing. Each of three ejaculates obtained from 12 stallions was divided into aliquots to be analysed for sperm motility, morphology and membrane integrity as fresh, cooled and frozen-thawed samples. The percentage of morphologically normal spermatozoa was similar in fresh and cooled samples and both were greater than in the frozen samples. There were no strong linear relati...
Parlevliet JM, Colenbrander B.In the selection procedure to acquire a breeding licence, 3-year-old Dutch Warmblood stallions have to undergo a breeding soundness test It is questioned whether this evaluation is predictive of the stallion's fertility results in the first breeding season. Therefore, semen parameters at the beginning of their first breeding season were evaluated and correlated to nonreturn at first cycle and foaling rate of mares bred by stallions (n = 13). The total number of mares inseminated with chilled semen from those stallions was 1055. Semen parameters were recorded on 2 ejaculates, collected 1 h apar...
Haire TJ, Hodgskinson R, Ganney PS, Langton CM.The purpose of this study was to compare the structural parameters of fabric and fractal dimension as predictors of the Young's modulus of equine cancellous bone. Eight 15 mm cubes of cancellous bone were obtained from three equine third metacarpal bones. Young's modulus was determined for the three orthogonal directions. The fabric and fractal dimension were calculated for each of the six exposed faces of each cube. Fractal dimension plus porosity provided a higher explanatory power for Young's modulus (R2 = 78.7%. P < 0.0001) than fabric plus porosity (R2 = 69.2%, P < 0.0001). Fractal ...
Martín-Jiménez T, Papich MG, Riviere JE.To develop and validate a population pharmacokinetic model for gentamicin in horses, using retrospective clinical data. Methods: 62 horses that had been treated IV with multiple doses of gentamicin at our veterinary teaching hospital between 1987 and 1996. Procedure-46 horses were assigned to the study group, and 16 to the validation group. Detailed history of dosage, sample collection times, and selected pathophysiologic variables were recorded for each patient. Samples were analyzed by use of a fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. Pharmacostatistical analysis was conducted, using co...
Lord CC, Woolhouse ME, Mellor PS.Factors affecting epidemics of African horse sickness in Spain were studied using a mathematical model. The model examined the likelihood of an epidemic after the introduction of the virus, and the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Two host species (horses and donkeys) and one vector species (the biting midge Culicoides imicola) were included. A stratified random sampling method (Latin hypercube sampling) was used for sensitivity analysis of the likelihood of an epidemic. Systematic variation of vaccination parameters was used to consider alternative control strategies. In general, when...
Young N, Corletto F, Wright I.To identify prognostic factors for return to racing after lag screw repair of condylar fractures and develop a predictive model for return to racing. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: A total of 356 horses referred to a single referral hospital in the UK with a third metacarpal/metatarsal condylar fracture between January 1999 and December 2018. Methods: Age, sex, fracture site, fracture characteristics, surgery related variables and complications were retrieved from case records. Data were divided into two sets for model training and model validation. Univariable analyses were per...
Knecht S, Luechinger R, Boesiger P, Stüssi E.The mechanical property of articular cartilage determines to a great extent the functionality of diarthrodial joints. Consequently, the early detection of mechanical and, thus, functional changes of cartilage is crucial for preventive measures to maintain the mobility and the quality of life of individuals. An alternative to conventional mechanical testing is the inverse finite element approach, enabling non-destructive testing of the tissue. We evaluated a method for the assessment of the equilibrium material properties of the patellar cartilage based on magnetic resonance imaging during pate...
Leathwick DM, Sauermann CW, Donecker JM, Nielsen MK.Literature documenting the growth and development of Parascaris spp. infections was used to develop a model describing worm dynamics in the young horse. The model incorporates four main variables; the rate at which larvae migrate through host tissues to return to the small intestine, the proportion of migrating larvae which succeed in returning to the small intestine, the rate of growth in size of maturing and adult worms and the survival rate of maturing and adult worms. In addition, the number of eggs laid each day by adult female worms is calculated as a function of worm size (length) and i...
Vincze B, Gáspárdy A, Kovács L, Albert E, Kézér L, Baska F, Szenci O.Transabdominal ultrasonography has been shown to be a useful and reliable method for assessing fetal well-being in horses and cattle. To test the applicability of fetal aortic diameter measurement in cattle, 44 late-term pregnant cows and heifers were examined 21 to 0 days prior to calving. Mean fetal aortic diameter was 2.07 ± 0.14 cm and mean fetal heart rate (FHR) was 109 ± 17 bpm. Three dead calves were dissected and their aortic diameter was measured in a water bath. The mean birth weight (n = 44) was 39.9 ± 5.8 kg. There was a significant negative correlation between FHR and fetal aor...
Kramer KJ, Kagan IA, Lawrence LM, Goff BM, Smith SR.An excess of water-soluble carbohydrates (WSCs) can present a risk for horses prone to pasture-associated laminitis or some other metabolic conditions. Determining WSC concentrations in commonly grazed cool-season grasses, at different times of day and under different fertilization treatments, can help optimize grazing times and management strategies. The goals of this study were to develop a near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) calibration curve for WSC and to apply it to four cool-season grass species. Tall fescue, Kentucky bluegrass, orchardgrass, and perennial ryegrass (10 cultiva...
Ebert R.In a retrospective study on 271 horses with colic the prediction about the outcome of the disease was made by a discriminating analysis. The best combination of quantitative prognostic parameters was capillary refill time, hematocrit, lactate and anion gap, with 90% correct predictions. In comparison with individually prognostic parameters, the combined prognosis constantly reached a higher percentage of correct predictions, the exact value resulting in 89%. Moreover, survival was better predictable than death.
Zuffa T, Bennet ED, Parkin TDH.Endurance riding is a popular equestrian sport organised at the international level by the Fédération Équestre Internationale (FEI). The sport involves prolonged exercise at speed over significant distances, which puts a substantial load on equine athletes' musculoskeletal systems and metabolism and contributes to the risk of injuries and other veterinary problems. The FEI employs a system of in-ride veterinary inspections aimed at early detection of such problems and elimination of horses unfit to continue in the ride. To date, risk factors for elimination due to irregular gait or metaboli...
Beccati F, Nannarone S, Gialletti R, Lotto E, Cercone M, Dante S, Bazzica C, Pepe M.The aim of this study was to evaluate the transabdominal ultrasonography as a tool for predicting the success of abdominocentesis in horses. Patients were included in the study if a complete transabdominal ultrasonography examination and abdominocentesis were performed as part of the clinical work-up. Ultrasonographically, the amount of peritoneal fluid was assessed using a 4-point grading system, as well as the amount of peritoneal fluid collected. A χ(2) or Fischer exact test was performed to test for an association between the ultrasonography findings and fluid retrieved, and between the t...
Pinchbeck GL, Clegg PD, Proudman CJ, Morgan KL, French NP.A concurrent case-control study of 12 UK racecourses was made between March 1, 2000, and August 31, 2001, to identify and quantify the factors associated with the risk of horses falling in steeplechase races. Cases were defined as a jumping effort at a steeplechase fence that resulted in a fall and controls were defined as a successful jumping effort over any steeplechase fence at any of the 12 racecourses within 14 days before or after the case fall. Information on the horse, the jockey and the race were collected and all the fences on all the courses were surveyed. Conditional logistic regre...
Izzati MRNZ, Noraniza MA, Adamu L, Rasedee A.Endurance horses are usually eliminated from the race due to lameness, metabolic ailments or technical reasons. The purpose of the study was to determine the validity and reliability of the metabolic disorder index (MDI) in predicting metabolic eliminations in endurance horses during an endurance race. Fifty-four endurance horses competing on two local endurance tracks were involved in the study. Blood samples were collected a day prior to the event to determine packed cell volume (PCV), chloride (Cl), interleukin-6 (IL-6), creatine kinase (CK) and glutathione reductase (GR) concentrations fro...
Ellis KL, Seabaugh K, King MR.Local injection of corticosteroids is commonly performed in horses with sacroiliac (SI) region pain and/or dysfunction, ,and ultrasound findings of normal horses and those with SI pain have also been well described. However, no studies have been performed that have evaluated if ultrasound findings, injection technique, or medications injected affect prognosis for return to function. The objectives of the current study are to determine if findings on ultrasound, injection technique, or medications injected are predictive of return to function in horses with SI region pain and/or dysfunction. Me...
Davíðsson HB, Rees T, Ólafsdóttir MR, Einarsson H.Automated gait classification has traditionally been studied using horse-mounted sensors. However, smartphone-based sensors are more accessible, but the performance of gait classification models using data from such sensors has not been widely known or accessible. In this study, we performed horse gait classification using deep learning models and data from mobile phone sensors located in the rider's pocket. We gathered data from 17 horses and 14 riders. The data were gathered simultaneously from movement sensors in a mobile phone located in the rider's pocket and a gait classification system ...
Davies HM.In Thoroughbred racehorses, the dorsal cortex (DC) of the third metacarpal bone (MC3) enlarges when horses are first exposed to fast exercise speeds. It is now possible to measure ultrasound speed through 3 to 5 mm depths of bone around the bone shaft using Sunlight Medical's 'Omnisense' machine. The aim of this experiment was to determine whether the ultrasound speed measured in the surface 3-5 mm of the midshaft dorsal cortex of MC3 could be related directly to the midshaft shape and size of the MC3s of young Thoroughbred racehorses at the same stage of training. Sixteen 2-year-old and sixte...
Clayton HM.High-speed cinematography was used to record the movements of 12 cutting horses performing a standard test with a mechanical flag. Based on their previous competitive performances, horses were classified into 2 groups: group 1, composed of 5 moderately successful or average performers that had won less than $35,000 in purse money; and group 2, composed of 7 highly successful or elite performances that had amassed greater than $35,000 in competition earnings. Analysis of the results indicated that, compared with horses of the average group, the elite horses had faster reaction times in response...
Weissman-Miller D, Miller RJ, Shotwell MP.Translational research is redefined in this paper using a combination of methods in statistics and data science to enhance the understanding of outcomes and practice in occupational therapy. These new methods are applied, using larger data and smaller single-subject data, to a study in hippotherapy for children with developmental disabilities (DD). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates DD affects nearly 10 million children, aged 2-19, where diagnoses may be comorbid. Hippotherapy is defined here as a treatment strategy in occupational therapy using equine movement to achieve...
Hill V, Koch RT, Bialosuknia SM, Ngo K, Zink SD, Koetzner CA, Maffei JG, Dupuis AP, Backenson PB, Oliver J, Bransfield AB, Misencik MJ, Petruff TA....Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans, and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, like previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts...
O'Keefe JS, Julian A, Moriarty K, Murray A, Wilks CR.A detection system incorporating the polymerase chain reaction was compared with the use of histopathology and virus isolation to determine the presence of equid herpesvirus type 1 or equid herpesvirus type 4 in equine tissues submitted to a diagnostic laboratory. When the polymerase chain reaction was performed, these tissues had been stored for up to 3 years. Thirty-eight tissues representing 14 cases had been stored embedded in paraffin wax. Analysis of these tissues using the PCR gave predictive values of 1.0 and 0.91 for a positive and negative result respectively, and sensitivity and spe...
Petrucciani A, Yu G, Ventresca M.Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is an arbovirus that, while it has been known to exist since the 1930's, recently had a spike in cases. This increased prevalence is particularly concerning due to the severity of the disease with 1 in 3 symptomatic patients dying. The cause of this peak is currently unknown but could be due to changes in climate, the virus itself, or host behavior. In this paper we propose a novel multi-season deterministic model of EEE spread and its stochastic counterpart. Models were parameterized using a dataset from the Florida Department of Health with sixteen years of ...
Oda D, Onogi A.The inheritance of racing performance in Thoroughbreds is of interest to breeders and geneticists. Therefore, the genetic parameters of racing performance have been investigated in various populations of Thoroughbreds. However, the predictability of the racing performance of a racehorse has not been assessed well. In this study, we built mixed-effects models for Japanese Thoroughbreds and assessed their predictability of racing performance. We used the average velocity as an index of racing performance and treated each category of racecourse and distance as different traits. Model selection us...
Topczewska J, Bartman J, Kwater T.The aim of this study was to evaluate factors influencing the performance of Hucul horses and to develop a prediction model, based on artificial neural (AI) networks for predict horses' classification, relying on their performance value assessment during the annual Hucul championships. The Feedforward multilayer artificial neural networks, learned using supervised methods and implemented in Matlab programming environment were applied. Artificial neural networks with one and two hidden layers with different numbers of neurons equipped with a tangensoidal transition function, learned using the L...
Seguí Pedrosa B, Dujardin C, Moses B, Thompson C, Sarasola P, Gattacceca F, Loup B, Garcia P, Popot MA, Bailly-Chouriberry L.Clodronic acid is designated as a controlled medication for competition horses by the International Federation for Equestrian Sports and, according to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, clodronic acid is not to be administered to racehorses younger than 3.5 years or within 30 days prior to a race. In this study, 35 horses involved in competition were treated with a single dose of 1.53 mg clodronic acid/kg bodyweight intramuscularly. Plasma samples were obtained before treatment and 10, 20, 30, and 40 days post-administration. Clodronic acid concentrations were mea...
Ripollés-Lobo M, Molina A, Novales M, Ziadi C, Hernández E, Valera M.Osteochondrosis (OC) is a developmental orthopaedic disease of significant concern in numerous sport horse breeds, with significant international relevance. Using digital radiographs, we assessed the occurrence of hock (tarsocrural joint) OC in 3 048 Pura Raza Española (PRE) horses which took part in a morpho-functional test, in three specific locations in the tarsus limbs: the Distal Intermediate Ridge of the Tibia (DIRT), the lateral trochlear ridges of the talus (LTT), and the medial trochlear ridges of the talus (MTT). An incidence rate of 13.3% was found for hock OC in the analysed samp...
Wagner LH, Aurich J, Claaßen S, Melchert M, Kaps M, Aurich C.Transrectal and transabdominal ultrasonography is an established method to monitor pregnancy, fetal growth and wellbeing in different species. Growth charts with multiple bio-morphometric parameters to estimate days of gestation and days before parturition exist in small companion animals, sheep and goats, riding type horses and large ponies but not in small horse breeds like Shetland ponies. The aim of this study was to apply fetal biometric assessment and detailed description of physiologic fetal development to mid and late term pregnancies in Shetland mares and to generate reference data fo...
Johns LT, Smythe MP, Dewberry LS, Staiger EA, Allen K, Brooks SA.In international equestrian sport, visual inspections assess gait and lameness to protect the welfare of performance horses during competition. Horses competing internationally in three-day eventing must pass two mandatory inspections (pre-competition and post-cross country) before attempting the final phase: the jumping test (JT). We hypothesized that digitally quantifying objective gait parameters captured during the two mandatory inspections will identify locomotor characteristics that predict success during the jumping test. Utilizing the DeepLabCut (DLC) software package for labeling of a...
Leishman EM, Sahar M, Cieslar S, Darani P, Ellis JL.To properly formulate diets, the ability to accurately estimate feed intake is critical as the amount of feed consumed will influence the amount of nutrients delivered to the animal. Inaccurate intake estimates may lead to under- or over-feeding of nutrients to the animal. Individual differences in equine forage intake are well-known, but predictive equations based on animal and nutritional factors are not comprehensive. The objective of the present study was to consolidate the current body of knowledge in the published literature on voluntary forage DM intake (VFDMI) in equines and conduct a ...
Tahir AM, Guo L, Ward RK, Yu X, Rideout A, Hore M, Wang ZJ.Laryngeal hemiplegia (LH) is a major upper respiratory tract (URT) complication in racehorses. Endoscopy imaging of horse throat is a gold standard for URT assessment. However, current manual assessment faces several challenges, stemming from the poor quality of endoscopy videos and subjectivity of manual grading. To overcome such limitations, we propose an explainable machine learning (ML)-based solution for efficient URT assessment. Specifically, a cascaded YOLOv8 architecture is utilized to segment the key semantic regions and landmarks per frame. Several spatiotemporal features are then ex...
Kikuchi M, Murase H, Urata K, Ishige T, Nagata SI, Tozaki T, Kakoi H, Ishiguro-Oonuma T, Kizaki K.Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are stable in body fluids and can serve as biomarkers for various diseases and physiological states. Although pregnancy-related miRNAs have been identified in various mammals, studies on parturition-related circulating miRNAs in mares are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to identify parturition-related miRNAs and examine their potential applications in the prediction of parturition date. miRNAs were extracted from the plasma of Thoroughbred mares 30 days (295-326 days pregnant) and 5 (323-352 days pregnant) - 0 (328-357 days pregnant) days before parturition,...
Doyle JL, Egan S, Berry DP.Many sport horse studbooks worldwide use microsatellite markers for parentage verification. However, many have expressed a desire to introduce genomic selection using genome-wide dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes to complement their current breeding programmes. Hence, it does not make sense to genotype the same animal for both microsatellite markers and SNP markers. Transitioning to SNP-based parentage verification is an obvious solution but one barrier to this transition is the lack of SNP data on parents from which to verify parentage against. Therefore, the objective of t...
Daniels SP, Whiteside EJ, Martin S, Moore-Colyer MJS, Harris P.Feedstuffs, especially ensiled forage, may be detrimental to equid oral health by exposing the oral cavity to low pH. This study aimed to identify if salivary pH was altered by 1) a range of different feedstuffs and (2) specifically by feeding haylages with differing nutrient profiles. Two studies were conducted. The first measured oral pH following five feedstuffs, (hay, haylage, unmolassed sugarbeet pulp, unmolassed alfalfa chaff and rolled oats), tested individually over five days. Saliva (≥1 ml) was collected in triplicate, prior to feeding, directly after ingesting 500 g of each feedstu...
Bussiman F, Alves AAC, Richter J, Hidalgo J, Veroneze R, Oliveira T.Gait scores are widely used in the genetic evaluation of horses. However, the nature of such measurement may limit genetic progress since there is subjectivity in phenotypic information. This study aimed to assess the application of machine learning techniques in the prediction of breeding values for five visual gait scores in Campolina horses: dissociation, comfort, style, regularity, and development. The dataset contained over 5000 phenotypic records with 107,951 horses (14 generations) in the pedigree. A fixed model was used to estimate least-square solutions for fixed effects and adjusted ...
