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Topic:Predictive Model

Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics analysis of trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection after intravenous and per os administration in Thoroughbred horses.
Journal of equine veterinary science    July 7, 2025   Volume 152 105640 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105640
Kuroda T, Minamijima Y, Niwa H, Mita H, Nomura M, Ohta M.A pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) approach was used to determine the dosage regimens of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections after intravenous (IV) and per os (PO) administration in horses. Methods: Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole plasma concentrations were measured in six horses after a single IV administration of 15 mg/kg (2.5 mg/kg trimethoprim and 12.5 mg/kg sulfamethoxazole) and PO administration of 30 mg/kg (5.0 mg/kg trimethoprim and 25.0 mg/kg sulfamethoxazole). The data were modeled using a nonlinear mixed-effects mode...
Indicators of mortality risk in ageing horses.
GeroScience    June 25, 2025   doi: 10.1007/s11357-025-01738-y
Kelemen Z, Vogl C, Torres Borda L, Auer U, Jenner F.Clinical care for patients with limited life expectancy often requires adjustments, prioritizing immediate benefits over long-term outcomes, as the relevance of future complications diminishes. This study identifies indicators of mortality risk in horses with chronic orthopaedic conditions to enhance individualized care and welfare. Over 3 years, 123 chronically lame horses and 6 healthy control horses at an animal sanctuary underwent regular (every 3 months) comprehensive health assessments and activity monitoring using wearable sensors. Data collected included body condition scores, muscul...
Modelling Energy Demands of Cross-Country Tests in 2-Star to 5-Star Eventing Competitions.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    June 17, 2025   Volume 15, Issue 12 1775 doi: 10.3390/ani15121775
Liedtke AM, Meijer H, Horstmann S, von Reitzenstein C, Rump I, Kirsch K.Eventing is an Olympic equestrian discipline comprising dressage, cross-country, and show jumping, with the cross-country phase imposing the greatest physical demands on horses. This study presents a composite model to estimate energy expenditure during the cross-country phase, integrating physiological data (heart rate-derived VO2 and lactate-based anaerobic estimates) with external workload indicators (GPS-derived speed, elevation, and course complexity). Model development was based on 691 rides from 256 horses across 232 events at 2-star to 5-star competition levels. The analysis showed tha...
Analytical Data Review on an Artificial Intelligence Platform for Doping Control in Horse Racing.
Analytical chemistry    June 10, 2025   doi: 10.1021/acs.analchem.5c00510
Lai CS, Wong ASY, Wong KS, Wan TSM, Ho ENM.In the screening of prohibited substances (PS) in horse biological samples with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS) for doping control, an enormous number of chromatograms are generated. Reviewing these chromatograms to identify suspicious findings requires an extensive manual effort. Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) enable its use to classify images into different categories. This can potentially be utilized to perform first-line analysis of chromatograms, which are usually displayed as images, by classifying them...
An application of the MR-Horse method to reduce selection bias in genome-wide association studies of disease progression.
European journal of human genetics : EJHG    June 3, 2025   doi: 10.1038/s41431-025-01845-6
Donovan K, Torres J, Zhu D, Herrington WG, Staplin N.Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of disease progression are vulnerable to collider bias caused by selection of participants with disease at study entry. This bias introduces spurious associations between disease progression and genetic variants that are truly only associated with disease incidence. Methods of statistical adjustment to reduce this bias have been published, but rely on assumptions regarding the genetic correlation of disease incidence and disease progression which are likely to be violated in many human diseases. MR-Horse is a recently published Bayesian method to estimate...
Assessment of Common Hematologic Parameters and Novel Hematologic Ratios for Predicting Piroplasmosis Infection in Horses.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    May 20, 2025   Volume 15, Issue 10 1485 doi: 10.3390/ani15101485
Duaso J, Perez-Ecija A, Martínez E, Navarro A, De Las Heras A, Mendoza FJ.Equine piroplasmosis (EP) is a tick-borne disease affecting equids worldwide. Diagnosis is based on direct methods (blood smear or PCR) or indirect methods (serology); however, these techniques yield positive and negative results. Thus, an alternative, reliable, rapid, and cost-effective complementary tool, such as hematologic parameters and newly described hematologic ratios, could help in the EP diagnosis. This study describes the changes induced by piroplasmosis infection on hematologic parameters and ratios in horses. PCR-positive horses exhibited anemia and thrombocytopenia, whereas PCR...
Enhanced Reliability of the Evaluation of Fertility Traits in Pura Raza Española Horses Using Single-Step Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction.
Genes    May 9, 2025   Volume 16, Issue 5 562 doi: 10.3390/genes16050562
Ziadi C, Valera M, Laseca N, Perdomo-González D, Demyda-Peyrás S, de Los Terreros AR, Molina A. By simultaneously integrating both genotyped and non-genotyped animals into genetic evaluation, the single-step genomic BLUP method enhanced the accuracy of genetic assessments. This study aimed to compare the increase in prediction reliability (R) between restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and single-step genomic REML (ssGREML) in the Pura Raza Española (PRE) horse breed. The dataset comprised reproductive records for seven fertility traits from 47,502 females, with a total of 57,316 animals represented in the pedigree. A total of 4009 animals were genotyped using the EQUIGENE 90K SNP ar...
Prediction of Gestational Age in Warmblood, Standardbred and Thoroughbred Horses Based on the Table Established in Light Breed Horses Using Foetal Ultrasonographic Measurements of Four Biometric Parameters.
Reproduction in domestic animals = Zuchthygiene    April 25, 2025   Volume 60, Issue 4 e70059 doi: 10.1111/rda.70059
Renaudin CD, Picandet V, Kass PH.Using the equation of Hartwig et al. and the table established for light breed horses, day of gestation was predicted in 108 Warmblood (WB) and 59 racehorses (Thoroughbred [TB] and Standardbred [STB]) pregnant mares. In WB, gestational ages were predicted within 2 weeks from 100 to 200 days of gestation using biparietal diameter (BPD), aortic diameter (AortD) or femur length (FL); within 2 weeks from 100 to 250 days using BPD or AortD; within 2 weeks from 100 to 300 days using BPD alone; and within 3 weeks from 100 to 350 days using eye approximated volume (EyV) alone. In the ...
A segment-based framework for explainability in animal affective computing.
Scientific reports    April 21, 2025   Volume 15, Issue 1 13670 doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-96634-y
Boneh-Shitrit T, Finka L, Mills DS, Luna SP, Dalla Costa E, Zamansky A, Bremhorst A.Recent developments in animal motion tracking and pose recognition have revolutionized the study of animal behavior. More recent efforts extend beyond tracking towards affect recognition using facial and body language analysis, with far-reaching applications in animal welfare and health. Deep learning models are the most commonly used in this context. However, their "black box" nature poses a significant challenge to explainability, which is vital for building trust and encouraging adoption among researchers. Despite its importance, the field of explainability and its quantification remains un...
Prediction of the start of parturition in mares using camera image analysis.
Journal of equine veterinary science    April 11, 2025   Volume 149 105572 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105572
Nabenishi H, Tsuda T, Omoya Y, Ishii T.This study aimed to detect characteristic changes in the behavior and body surface temperature (BST) of pregnant mares before parturition using camera image analysis. A total of 53 pregnant Thoroughbred mares, which were individually stabled in box stalls, were included in this study. The mares were continuously monitored using a digital camera system comprising a thermal imaging camera and a visible camera. For the automatic determination of the x and y coordinates of each mare, the centroid of the mares was calculated using image processing software. Subsequently, trajectory analysis was per...
Exploring equine behavior: Wearable sensors data and explainable AI for enhanced classification.
Journal of equine veterinary science    April 10, 2025   Volume 149 105568 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105568
Cetintav B, Yalcin A.Understanding equine behavior through advanced monitoring technologies is crucial for improving animal welfare, optimizing training strategies, and enabling early detection of health or stress-related issues. This study integrates wearable sensor data with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, particularly SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), to enhance interpretability in equine behavior classification. The data used in this study were sourced from an open-source dataset, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. Orginally, data were collected from 18 horses using sensor dev...
Detecting Equine Gaits Through Rider-Worn Accelerometers.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    April 8, 2025   Volume 15, Issue 8 doi: 10.3390/ani15081080
Schampheleer J, Eerdekens A, Joseph W, Martens L, Deruyck M.Automatic horse gait classification offers insights into training intensity, but directsensor attachment to horses raises concerns about discomfort, behavioral disruption, andentanglement risks. To address this, our study leverages rider-centric accelerometers formovement classification. The position of a sensor, sampling frequency, and window size ofsegmented signal data have a major impact on classification accuracy in activity recognition.Yet, there are no studies that have evaluated the effect of all these factors simultaneouslyusing accelerometer data from four distinct rider locations (t...
Stochastic modeling of the horse population and vaccination data indicates low annual vaccination coverage for West Nile virus in Canada (2016-2020). Levasseur A, Paré J, Aubry P, Iwasawa S, Leung D, Arsenault J.Vaccination is the most efficient tool for preventing West Nile virus (WNV) disease in horses. The objectives of this retrospective study were to: i) estimate the provincial and national horse population in Canada; ii) estimate the annual vaccination coverage for WNV in each province; and iii) compare estimates of provincial annual vaccination coverage. Horse population data (2006-2023) and the number of vaccine doses sold in Canada (2016-2020) were obtained by province. Based on these data and expert consultations, the annual number of vaccine doses administered, and provincial horse populati...
Association between sperm DNA fragmentation and fertility parameters in farm animals: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
BMC veterinary research    March 26, 2025   Volume 21, Issue 1 204 doi: 10.1186/s12917-025-04652-9
Abah KO, Ligocka-Kowalczyk Z, Itodo JI, Ameh G, Partyka A, Nizanski W.Accurately predicting male fertility is crucial for the animal breeding industry due to its significant economic implications. Existing literature suggests that mammalian fertility is partially dependent on sperm DNA integrity. However, routine semen analysis often fails to detect DNA damage and does not consistently correlate with field fertility outcomes. While assessing sperm DNA integrity provides valuable biological insights, its role in diagnosing animal infertility remains uncertain. Results: This meta-analysis evaluated the association between sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) and fertilit...
Novel risk factors associated with fatal musculoskeletal injury in Thoroughbreds in North American racing (2009-2023).
Equine veterinary journal    March 25, 2025   doi: 10.1111/evj.14503
Bennet ED, Parkin TDH.The Equine Injury Database (EID) is a census-level record of Thoroughbred racing in North America, currently recording 95.6% of all race starts in 2023, along with partial training and veterinary histories of each horse. Objective: To identify horse-, race- and track-level risk factors associated with race-related fatal musculoskeletal injury (MSI) of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: The study cohort included all race starts made by horses born after 31 December 2006, at tracks that fully report to the EID and consisted of 3,851,659 race s...
Ex Vivo Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Integration Model of Cefquinome Against Escherichia coli in Foals.
Veterinary sciences    March 22, 2025   Volume 12, Issue 4 294 doi: 10.3390/vetsci12040294
Gao T, Liu X, Qiu D, Li Y, Qiu Z, Qi J, Li S, Guo X, Zhang Y, Wang Z, Gao X, Ma Y, Ma T.Cefquinome is used to treat septicemia caused by () and respiratory infections caused by subsp. in foals. However, studies reporting the use of cefquinome to target as pathogens of sepsis are lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the optimal dosage regimen for cefquinome against using a PK/PD model. After the administration of 1 mg/kg cefquinome (intramuscularly or intravenously), blood samples were collected at different time points to determine the serum concentration of cefquinome via HPLC. The pharmacokinetic parameters were evaluated via NCA (WinNonlin 5.2.1 software). Th...
The diagnostic accuracy of the Brix refractometer in determining mare colostrum with high and low immunoglobulin G concentrations.
Journal of equine veterinary science    March 17, 2025   105417 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105417
Akköse M.Foals, that receive poor-quality colostrum, are exposed to a risk of failure of transfer of passive immunity. The Brix refractometer can be used for the estimation of the immunoglobulin (IgG) concentration of mare colostrum, yet there is a scarce literature available on Brix refractometer thresholds for use in the detection of mare colostra with high and low IgG concentrations. Objective: This study aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the Brix refractometer in determining mare colostra with IgG concentrations of <50g/L, 80g/L, >100g/L and >125g/L. Methods: Two hundred and seven...
The Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome and Predictors of Infection and Mortality in 1068 Critically Ill Newborn Foals.
Journal of veterinary internal medicine    March 17, 2025   Volume 39, Issue 2 e70004 doi: 10.1111/jvim.70004
Wilkins PA, Wong D, Slovis NM, Collins N, Barr BS, MacKenzie C, De Solis CN, Castagnetti C, Mariella J, Burns T, Perkins G, Delvescovo B, Sanchez LC....Sepsis has been defined in humans as the concurrent proven or suspected presence of microbial infection and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Sepsis is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in neonatal foals. The clinical utility of using SIRS or its individual components to predict infection and mortality in critically ill foals is currently unknown. Objective: Assess the ability of history and signalment, clinical findings, laboratory results, and SIRS-related indices to predict infection and mortality in critically ill foals. Methods: Retrospective, multi-center, cr...
A Retrospective Study on Pre- and Intraoperative Predictors on the Recovery Quality of Horses After General Anesthesia.
Veterinary sciences    March 11, 2025   Volume 12, Issue 3 doi: 10.3390/vetsci12030262
Román Durá B, Dunham O, Grulke S, Salciccia A, Dupont J, Sandersen C.Equine anesthesia is related to high morbidity and mortality rates and recent studies suggested that the period of recovery remains the phase associated with the greatest risk of mortality in horses. Intraoperative hypotension, hypoxemia, and hypercapnia are recognized as potential determinants of recovery quality. This study, conducted at the Equine University Hospital of Liege, aimed to explore how these factors influence recovery outcomes and compare complications between non-emergency and emergency procedures. We analyzed data from 1057 horses, with a mean weight of 498 kg (ranging from 15...
Detection of mare parturition through balanced multi-scale feature fusion based on improved Libra RCNN.
PloS one    March 4, 2025   Volume 20, Issue 3 e0318498 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0318498
Wang B, Duan W, Zhao J, Bai D.Once a mare experiences parturition abnormalities, the outcome between a live foal and a stillborn can change rapidly. Automated detection of mare parturition and timely human intervention is crucial to reducing risks during mare and foal parturition. This paper addresses the challenges of manual monitoring of parturition in large-scale equine facilities due to the unpredictability of mare parturition timing, proposing an algorithm for detecting mare parturition through a balanced multi-scale feature fusion based on an improved Libra RCNN. Initially, a ResNet101 backbone network incorporating ...
Results of the “test-freeze” approach in a commercial program of stallion sperm cryopreservation and the relationship between pre-freeze sperm quality and “freezability.”.
Theriogenology    March 3, 2025   Volume 238 117373 doi: 10.1016/j.theriogenology.2025.117373
Hernández-Avilés C, Varner DD, Ramírez-Agámez L, Samper JC, Love CC.In the current study, we report the effect of different commercially available semen freezing extenders utilized for the "test-freeze" procedure for 13 years (2010-2023) as part of a commercial program of stallion sperm cryopreservation. Ejaculates obtained from sexually active and healthy stallions (n = 124) were cryopreserved using up to five commercially available semen freezing extenders (Lactose-EDTA [LE], MFR5, CryoMax LE [CMLE], CryoMax MFR5 [CMMFR5] or BotuCrio [BC]). Post-thaw sperm motility (total motility - TM [%]; progressive motility - PM [%]; and curvilinear velocity - VCL [μm...
Shoe configuration effects on equine forelimb gait kinetics at a walk.
PeerJ    February 26, 2025   Volume 13 e18940 doi: 10.7717/peerj.18940
Aoun R, Ogunmola Z, Musso A, Taguchi T, Takawira C, Lopez MJ.The shift in vertical forces on the equine hoof surface by heart-bar, egg-bar, and wooden clog shoes can significantly impact gait kinetics. Hypotheses tested in this study were that vertical, braking, and propulsion peak force (PF) and impulse (IMP) are different while shod with heart-bar, egg-bar, open-heel, and wooden clog shoes, or while unshod, and the resultant ground reaction force vector (GRF YZ ) has the longest duration of cranial angulation with open-heel shoes followed by unshod, then egg-bar and heart-bar shoes, and the shortest with wooden clog shoes. Forelimb GRFs were recorded ...
Evaluating plasma lactate running speed derived parameters for predicting maximal lactate steady state in teaching horses.
Journal of equine veterinary science    February 14, 2025   105385 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105385
Littiere TO, Costa GB, Sales NAA, Carvalho JRG, Rodrigues IDM, Ramos GV, Ferraz GC.In humans, there is an ongoing academic discussion about measuring plasma lactate concentration ([La]) during an incremental exercise test (IET) to establish thresholds that can predict the maximal lactate steady state (MLSS). Training studies on horses have utilized the onset of [La] (OBLA), also known as V, the velocity at which the [La] of 4 mM is reached. This study assesses the effectiveness of four methods for estimating the MLSS in teaching horses. Ten teaching horses underwent a single IET to determine four exercise intensity thresholds for predicting MLSS and performed several constan...
Correction: Automated recognition of emotional states of horses from facial expressions.
PloS one    February 12, 2025   Volume 20, Issue 2 e0319501 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319501
Feighelstein M, Ricci-Bonot C, Hasan H, Weinberg H, Rettig T, Segal M, Distelfeld T, Shimshoni I, Mills DS, Zamansky A.[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302893.].
Discrimination of the Lame Limb in Horses Using a Machine Learning Method (Support Vector Machine) Based on Asymmetry Indices Measured by the EQUISYM System.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)    February 12, 2025   Volume 25, Issue 4 1095 doi: 10.3390/s25041095
Poizat E, Gérard M, Macaire C, De Azevedo E, Denoix JM, Coudry V, Jacquet S, Bertoni L, Tallaj A, Audigié F, Hatrisse C, Hébert C, Martin P....Lameness detection in horses is a critical challenge in equine veterinary practice, particularly when symptoms are mild. This study aimed to develop a predictive system using a support vector machine (SVM) to identify the affected limb in horses trotting in a straight line. The system analyzed data from inertial measurement units (IMUs) placed on the horse's head, withers, and pelvis, using variables such as vertical displacement and retraction angles. A total of 287 horses were included, with 256 showing single-limb lameness and 31 classified as sound. The model achieved an overall accuracy o...
Can Arterial Blood Gas, Electrolyte and Acid-Base Analysis at Admission be Used to Predict Survival to Hospital Discharge for Different Causes of Colic?
Veterinary medicine and science    February 6, 2025   Volume 11, Issue 2 e70210 doi: 10.1002/vms3.70210
Milner PI, Bardell D.Predicting outcome in horses presenting with colic remains challenging. Objective: To test whether arterial blood samples in horses admitted for colic predict outcome to hospital discharge for different colic types. Methods: Arterial blood samples collected on admission from 358 horses undergoing medical or surgical management of colic were evaluated for pH, PaO, PaCO, Na, K, iCa, Cl, HCO (P), HCO (P, set), Base (B), Base (ecf) and anion gap. Categories were small intestinal non-strangulating (SINS) or strangulating (SIS) lesions, large colon non-volvulus (LCNV) or volvulus (LCV), small colo...
The value of using multilevel performances (from recreational to international) to the genetic evaluation for show jumping performance in Warmblood horses.
Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience    February 5, 2025   Volume 19, Issue 3 101455 doi: 10.1016/j.animal.2025.101455
Chapard L, Gorssen W, Meyermans R, Hooyberghs K, Buys N, Janssens S.Show jumping is a popular equestrian sport that requires a unique combination of jumping capacity and rideability. It has been shown that genetics play an important role in show jumping performance that has significant implications for horse breeding programmes. This gives an important opportunity for studbooks to breed horses with the potential to perform at the highest level in show jumping competitions. However, show jumping competitions are performed at various levels (from recreational to international level) but only national competition results are used by Warmblood studbooks in most ge...
Convolutional Neural Networks Assisted Peak Classification in Targeted LC-HRMS/MS for Equine Doping Control Screening Analyses.
Analytical chemistry    February 3, 2025   Volume 97, Issue 6 3236-3241 doi: 10.1021/acs.analchem.4c03608
Barnabé A, Delcourt V, Loup B, Montanuy W, Trévisiol S, Popot MA, Garcia P, Bailly-Chouriberry L.Doping control screening analyses usually involve visual inspection of extracted ion chromatograms (EIC) by a trained analytical chemist, followed by further investigations if needed. This task is both highly repetitive and time-consuming, given the hundreds of compounds and metabolites to be screened in tens of thousands of samples per year. With the recent widespread adoption of machine learning in analytical chemistry and the training of high-performance convolutional neural networks (CNN), these operations can be automated with high accuracy and throughput. Applying this technology to dopi...
Identifying Novel Emotions and Wellbeing of Horses from Videos Through Unsupervised Learning.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)    January 31, 2025   Volume 25, Issue 3 doi: 10.3390/s25030859
Bhave A, Kieson E, Hafner A, Gloor PA.This research applies unsupervised learning on a large original dataset of horses in the wild to identify previously unidentified horse emotions. We construct a novel, high-quality, diverse dataset of 3929 images consisting of five wild horse breeds worldwide at different geographical locations. We base our analysis on the seven Panksepp emotions of mammals "Exploring", "Sadness", "Playing", "Rage", "Fear", "Affectionate" and "Lust", along with one additional emotion "Pain" which has been shown to be highly relevant for horses. We apply the contrastive learning framework MoCo (Momentum Contras...
Estimating Total-Tract Digestibility of Nutrients and Their Contribution to Digestible Energy Supplies in Equine Diets.
Journal of equine veterinary science    January 23, 2025   105362 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105362
Webster AP, Price T, Ingersoll T, Suagee-Bedore JK, White RR.Our objectives were to use a quantitative literature review to explore dietary and feed factors influencing apparent total-tract digestibility of dry matter (DMD), crude protein (CPD), neutral detergent fiber (NDFD), ether extract (EED), non-structural carbohydrates (NSCD), non-fiber carbohydrates (NFCD), and residual organic matter (rOMD) in equine diets, and to assess their contributions to digestible energy (DE) supplies. Data from 54 studies were modeled using linear mixed-effect regressions, with publication as a random effect to account for study variability. For each nutrient, five mode...