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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Gut Microbiota Profiling as a Promising Tool to Detect Equine Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). Gastrointestinal disorders are common and debilitating in horses, but their diagnosis is often difficult and invasive. Fecal samples offer a non-invasive alternative to assessing the gastrointestinal health of horses by providing information about the gut microbiota and inflammation. In this study, we used 16S sequencing to compare the fecal bacterial diversity and composition of 27 healthy horses and 49 horses diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We also measured fecal calprotectin concentration, a marker of intestinal inflammation, in healthy horses and horses with IBD. We found ...
Digital video analysis reveals gait parameters that predict performance in the jumping test phase of three-day eventing. In international equestrian sport, visual inspections assess gait and lameness to protect the welfare of performance horses during competition. Horses competing internationally in three-day eventing must pass two mandatory inspections (pre-competition and post-cross country) before attempting the final phase: the jumping test (JT). We hypothesized that digitally quantifying objective gait parameters captured during the two mandatory inspections will identify locomotor characteristics that predict success during the jumping test. Utilizing the DeepLabCut (DLC) software package for labeling of a...
Environmental and Historical Determinants of African Horse Sickness: Insights from Predictive Modeling. African horse sickness (AHS) is a viral disease transmitted by arthropods that impacts Equidae, specifically horses and related species. Recognized as a notifiable disease by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), AHS is associated with a high mortality rate of 80%-90% in susceptible hosts and exhibits rapid transmission dynamics. Historical records document numerous instances of mass horse deaths attributed to AHS, with recent occurrences in Thailand and Malaysia in 2020 causing heightened concerns within the local horse industry. The lack of a comprehensive global perspective on th...
Assessment of fetal development during mid and late term pregnancies by standard B-Mode ultrasonography in Shetland ponies. Transrectal and transabdominal ultrasonography is an established method to monitor pregnancy, fetal growth and wellbeing in different species. Growth charts with multiple bio-morphometric parameters to estimate days of gestation and days before parturition exist in small companion animals, sheep and goats, riding type horses and large ponies but not in small horse breeds like Shetland ponies. The aim of this study was to apply fetal biometric assessment and detailed description of physiologic fetal development to mid and late term pregnancies in Shetland mares and to generate reference data fo...
A comparative study across mule, equine and equine clone pregnancies regarding the determination of the day of birth. Monitoring equine parturition effectively is essential for preemptive intervention in periparturient issues and ensuring the overall well-being of both mares and foals. However, its implementation in breeding farms is challenging due to variable gestational lengths and nocturnal births. Predictive techniques have the potential to streamline the monitoring process, reduce labor intensity, and minimize costs. Research on foaling prediction in mares carrying mule or equine clone fetuses is scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to comparatively analyze foaling prediction parameters in mares pregnant...
Breeding Value Estimation Based on Morphological Evaluation of the Maremmano Horse Population through Factor Analysis. Morphological scoring is a common evaluation method for domestic animals. The National Association of Maremmano Breeders (ANAM) has provided a dataset containing the records of 600 horses, four metric measurements (cm) and 24 traits with a continuous evaluation scale, each one with 15 classes. Moreover, a body condition score (BCS) with five classes is included. In this study, factor analysis was conducted to create a small number of informative factors (3) obtained from these traits, and a new BLUP-AM-MT index was established. The New Estimated Breeding Value (NEBV1) of each horse was compute...
Imputation of single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes in ungenotyped sport horses from the genotypes of their progeny. Many sport horse studbooks worldwide use microsatellite markers for parentage verification. However, many have expressed a desire to introduce genomic selection using genome-wide dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes to complement their current breeding programmes. Hence, it does not make sense to genotype the same animal for both microsatellite markers and SNP markers. Transitioning to SNP-based parentage verification is an obvious solution but one barrier to this transition is the lack of SNP data on parents from which to verify parentage against. Therefore, the objective of t...
Application of blood parameters for the early diagnosis of natural ascending placentitis in pregnant mares. Placental infection is an important cause of late-term pregnancy loss and neonatal diseases in horses. Detection of changes in blood parameters especially during early placentitis could improve the diagnostic accuracy, treatment decision, and potential outcomes. The objectives of this 2-part study were to identify differences in circulating immunological, inflammatory, and hormonal parameters between mares with natural ascending placentitis and control mares; evaluate each and combination of parameters as predictors of placentitis; and determine how these parameters indicate severity of placen...
Modelling the Influence of Climate and Vector Control Interventions on Arbovirus Transmission. Most mathematical models that assess the vectorial capacity of disease-transmitting insects typically focus on the influence of climatic factors to predict variations across different times and locations, or examine the impact of vector control interventions to forecast their potential effectiveness. We combine features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. This model considers how vector control tools affect vectors at each stage of their feeding cycle, and incorporates host availability and preference. Applying this...
Methodological approaches to assessing the genetic predisposition of osteochondrosis of the tarsocrural joint in the Pura Raza Española horses. Osteochondrosis (OC) is a developmental orthopaedic disease of significant concern in numerous sport horse breeds, with significant international relevance. Using digital radiographs, we assessed the occurrence of hock (tarsocrural joint) OC in 3 048 Pura Raza Española (PRE) horses which took part in a morpho-functional test, in three specific locations in the tarsus limbs: the Distal Intermediate Ridge of the Tibia (DIRT), the lateral trochlear ridges of the talus (LTT), and the medial trochlear ridges of the talus (MTT). An incidence rate of 13.3% was found for hock OC in the analysed samp...
What the hay: predicting equine voluntary forage intake using a meta-analysis approach. To properly formulate diets, the ability to accurately estimate feed intake is critical as the amount of feed consumed will influence the amount of nutrients delivered to the animal. Inaccurate intake estimates may lead to under- or over-feeding of nutrients to the animal. Individual differences in equine forage intake are well-known, but predictive equations based on animal and nutritional factors are not comprehensive. The objective of the present study was to consolidate the current body of knowledge in the published literature on voluntary forage DM intake (VFDMI) in equines and conduct a ...
From facial expressions to algorithms: a narrative review of animal pain recognition technologies. Facial expressions are essential for communication and emotional expression across species. Despite the improvements brought by tools like the Horse Grimace Scale (HGS) in pain recognition in horses, their reliance on human identification of characteristic traits presents drawbacks such as subjectivity, training requirements, costs, and potential bias. Despite these challenges, the development of facial expression pain scales for animals has been making strides. To address these limitations, Automated Pain Recognition (APR) powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers a promising advancement...
Automated recognition of emotional states of horses from facial expressions. Animal affective computing is an emerging new field, which has so far mainly focused on pain, while other emotional states remain uncharted territories, especially in horses. This study is the first to develop AI models to automatically recognize horse emotional states from facial expressions using data collected in a controlled experiment. We explore two types of pipelines: a deep learning one which takes as input video footage, and a machine learning one which takes as input EquiFACS annotations. The former outperforms the latter, with 76% accuracy in separating between four emotional states...
Muscle-Driven Predictive Physics Simulations of Quadrupedal Locomotion in the Horse. Musculoskeletal simulations can provide insights into the underlying mechanisms that govern animal locomotion. In this study, we describe the development of a new musculoskeletal model of the horse, and to our knowledge present the first fully muscle-driven, predictive simulations of equine locomotion. Our goal was to simulate a model that captures only the gross musculoskeletal structure of a horse, without specialized morphological features. We mostly present simulations acquired using feedforward control, without state feedback ("top-down control"). Without using kinematics or motion captur...
Intelligence-based anti-doping via an Intelligence and Drug Testing Management (IDTM) system. The Intelligence and Drug Testing Management (IDTM), a system that can enhance drug testing analytics with related horse information and intelligence in a single platform, can help identify and mitigate potential doping and other threats.
Advancing diagnostic precision: Unveiling sensitization relationships between cat, dog, and horse allergen molecules. Recent advancements in molecular diagnostics have unveiled a multitude of allergen molecules (AMs) associated with animal sensitizations, revealing significant cross- and co-sensitization patterns among these seemingly distinct allergens. Methods: We investigated the sensitization profiles of 120 children, sensitized to at least one of the 14 AMs from cat, dog, or horse using the Alex test, employing correlations and hierarchical clusters to explore relationship between sensitizations. Results: Sensitizations to Fel d 1, Can f 4/5, and Equ c 4 differ from other cat, dog, and horse AM sensitiza...
Detection times of clodronic acid in horses with orthopedic disease. Clodronic acid is designated as a controlled medication for competition horses by the International Federation for Equestrian Sports and, according to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, clodronic acid is not to be administered to racehorses younger than 3.5 years or within 30 days prior to a race. In this study, 35 horses involved in competition were treated with a single dose of 1.53 mg clodronic acid/kg bodyweight intramuscularly. Plasma samples were obtained before treatment and 10, 20, 30, and 40 days post-administration. Clodronic acid concentrations were mea...
Transrectal ultrasonographic assessment of the fetal proximal phalanx: A new tool to assess fetal age and bone development in horses. Fetal age in Quarter Horses can be predicted within 2 weeks from 100- to 200- days of gestation using femur length, biparietal diameter (cranium diameter) and eye approximated volume. However, as pregnancy advances, the femur and cranium become too large to be imaged in their entirety using ultrasound and the corresponding biometric parameters can no longer be measured. In this longitudinal study, the proximal phalanx (P1) was evaluated as a novel biometric parameter for late gestation to predict fetal age and bone maturation. Transrectal ultrasound was performed in ten pregnant mares with kno...
A fresh look at the SarcoFluor antibody test for the detection of specific antibodies to Sarcocystis neurona for the diagnosis of equine protozoal myeloencephalitis. Equine protozoal myeloencephalitis (EPM) is a challenging disease to diagnose in horses with neurological signs. To optimize contemporary diagnostic testing, including the use of serum:CSF antibody ratios, the SarcoFluor antibody test for Sarcocystis neurona requires revalidation. The SarcoFluor, a previously validated immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT) for the detection of antibodies specific to S. neurona in serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of naturally infected horses was analyzed using recent data and considering a serum:CSF antibody ratio threshold. Utilization of serum and CSF pho...
Spatiotemporal pattern and suitable areas analysis of equine influenza in global scale (2005-2022). Equine influenza (EI) is a severe infectious disease that causes huge economic losses to the horse industry. Spatial epidemiology technology can explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and occurrence risks of infectious diseases, it has played an important role in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases in humans and animals. For the first time, this study conducted a systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of EI using SaTScan software and investigated the important environmental variables and suitable areas for EI occurrence using the Maxent mode...
Risk assessment in equine anesthesia: a first evaluation of the usability, utility and predictivity of the two-part CHARIOT. An accurate risk score that can predict peri-anesthetic morbidity and mortality in equine patients could improve peri-operative management, outcome and client communication. Unassigned: Three hunded horses underwent pre-anesthetic risk assessment using the American Society of Anesthesiologists-Physical Status augmented with equine-specific diseases (ASA-PS-Equine), a multifactorial 10-part rubric risk scale (10-RS), and a combination of both, the Combined horse anesthetic risk identification and optimization tool (CHARIOT). Intra-and post-anesthetic complications, the recovery phase and mortal...
The use of genomic assisted selection could allow early selection among Thoroughbreds and Polo Argentino horses for practicing polo. The Polo Argentino (PA) horse is a recognized breed, developed originally by mixing crossbred and Thoroughbred (TB) horses to play polo. Early PA selection is difficult due to unreliable performance estimations. This study investigated the usefulness of genomic markers previously linked to morphological and functional traits as a tool for the early selection of PA. To this, we genotyped 520 PA and 30 TB horses using the Equine GGPArray (Illumina, n=71,778 SNPs). Analyses included a genetic characterization of six genetic markers associated with behavioral (DRD4), muscular development (MSTN), a...
The Poses for Equine Research Dataset (PFERD). Studies of quadruped animal motion help us to identify diseases, understand behavior and unravel the mechanics behind gaits in animals. The horse is likely the best-studied animal in this aspect, but data capture is challenging and time-consuming. Computer vision techniques improve animal motion extraction, but the development relies on reference datasets, which are scarce, not open-access and often provide data from only a few anatomical landmarks. Addressing this data gap, we introduce PFERD, a video and 3D marker motion dataset from horses using a full-body set-up of densely placed over 100...
Cardiovascular Fitness and Stride Acceleration in Race-Pace Workouts for the Prediction of Performance in Thoroughbreds. In-training racehorse physiological data can be leveraged to further explore race-day performance prediction. To date, no large retrospective, observational study has analysed whether in-training speed and heart rate recovery can predict racehorse success. Speed (categorised as 'slow' to 'fast' according to the time taken to cover the last 600 m from a virtual finish line) and heart rate recovery (from gallop to 1 min after exercise) of flat racehorses (n = 485) of varying age, sex and type according to distance (e.g., sprinter, miler and stayer) were obtained using a fitness tracker from a si...
Differences in competitors’ market influence due to market structure: Evidence from Japanese gambling market. This study investigates how differences in the market structure between the Japanese horse racing and Keirin racing markets affects the influence exercised by high-turnover operators (major operators) in both markets on low-turnover operators (minor operators) in those markets. In the horse racing market structure, there are few competitors, and the difference in turnover between major and minor operators is large. In contrast, in the Keirin racing market structure, there are many competitors, and the difference in turnover between major and minor operators is small. Panel analysis results sho...
Determination of speed and assessment of conditioning in horses submitted to a lactate minimum test-alternative approaches. The maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) is a well-known gold standard method for determining the aerobic capacity of athletic horses. Owing to its high cost and complex execution, there is a search for standardized exercise tests that can predict this value in a single session. One of the methods described for this purpose is the lactate minimum test (LMT), which could be more accurate despite being adequate to predict MLSS. This study aimed to examine the impact of training on the speed corresponding to lactate minimum speed (LMS) and to apply new mathematical methods to evaluate the fitness ...
In silico approaches for predicting natural compounds with therapeutic potential and vaccine candidates against Streptococcus equi. Equine strangles is a prevalent disease that affects the upper respiratory in horses and is caused by the Gram-positive bacterium . In addition to strangles, other clinical conditions are caused by the two subspecies, and , which present relevant zoonotic potential. Treatment of infections caused by has become challenging due to the worldwide spreading of infected horses and the unavailability of effective therapeutics and vaccines. Penicillin treatment is often recommended, but multidrug resistance issues arised. We explored the whole genome sequence of 18 isolates to identify candidate p...
Gridded livestock density database and spatial trends for Kazakhstan. Livestock rearing is a major source of livelihood for food and income in dryland Asia. Increasing livestock density (LSK) affects ecosystem structure and function, amplifies the effects of climate change, and facilitates disease transmission. Significant knowledge and data gaps regarding their density, spatial distribution, and changes over time exist but have not been explored beyond the county level. This is especially true regarding the unavailability of high-resolution gridded livestock data. Hence, we developed a gridded LSK database of horses and small ruminants (i.e., sheep & goats)...
Bioaccumulation of radionuclides in hoofed animals inhabiting the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The article assesses the content of radionuclides in hoofed animals inhabiting the Semipalatinsk Test Site by calculation. Hoofed animals' faeces were sampled to determine the content of radionuclides in their diets. Based on values determined for the content of radionuclides in animals; diets, the content of radionuclides in the meat and milk of farm animals-cows (Bos taurus taurus), sheep (Ovis), goats (Capra hircus) and horses (Equus caballus Lin., 1758) as well as in the meat of wild animals-european moose (Alces alces Lin., 1758), argali (Ovis ammon Lin., 1758), roe deer (Capreolus pygarg...
Assessing the predictability of racing performance of Thoroughbreds using mixed-effects model. The inheritance of racing performance in Thoroughbreds is of interest to breeders and geneticists. Therefore, the genetic parameters of racing performance have been investigated in various populations of Thoroughbreds. However, the predictability of the racing performance of a racehorse has not been assessed well. In this study, we built mixed-effects models for Japanese Thoroughbreds and assessed their predictability of racing performance. We used the average velocity as an index of racing performance and treated each category of racecourse and distance as different traits. Model selection us...
