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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Lower attention to daily environment: a novel cue for detecting chronic horses’ back pain? Chronic pain is thought to affect patients' cognitive functioning, including attention. Loss of attention is likely to have an impact on the execution of daily tasks, and, therefore, to have negative effects. However, relationships between chronic pain and cognitive deficits are still debated. Pre-clinical studies using laboratory animals prove useful to model pain-related cognitive impairment, but animal models had to predict effects in the real world. This study investigates attentional engagement of domestic horses by comparing observations in a home setting and evaluations of vertebral dis...
Key Factors Affecting Reproductive Success of Thoroughbred Mares and Stallions on a Commercial Stud Farm. To evaluate factors contributing to fertility of thoroughbred mares, data from 3743 oestrous periods of 2385 mares were collected on a large thoroughbred farm in Ireland. Fourteen stallions (mean age 8.3 years; range 4-15 years) had bred 2385 mares (mean age 9.4 years; range 3-24 years). Maiden mares accounted for 12%, mares with a foal at foot for 64%, and barren, slipped or rested mares for 24% of the total. The mean pregnancy rate per cycle was 67.8% (68.6% in year 1 and 66.9% in year 2). Backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was utilized to develop two models to eval...
Bodyweight change aids prediction of survival in chronic equine grass sickness. Objective criteria for predicting survival of chronic grass sickness cases are currently lacking. Objective: To determine whether the rate and/or magnitude of bodyweight change during hospitalisation of chronic grass sickness cases can provide an objective predictor of survival to discharge from hospital. Clinicians' recorded indication(s) for euthanasia were also reviewed. Methods: Single centre retrospective observational study. Methods: Case records of all horses admitted for management of chronic grass sickness to The Dick Vet Equine Hospital between 1998 and 2013 were analysed. Case backg...
Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe. West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habit...
Modelling repeated competition records in genetic evaluations of Danish sport horses. Genetic evaluations of sport performance typically consider competition records of ranking points in each competition, accumulated lifetime points or annual earnings. Repeated observations have the advantage of allowing for adjustment of effects associated with each competition such as rider experience, judge and competing horses, but also demands more computer capacity than single-trait records, which could prohibit multiple-trait evaluations. The aim of the study was to compare CPU times, estimated breeding values (EBVs), reliabilities and model prediction abilities when modelling repeated c...
Mapping eastern equine encephalitis virus risk for white-tailed deer in Michigan. Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is often fatal to humans and horses. Some species including white-tailed deer and passerine birds can survive infection with the EEE virus (EEEV) and develop antibodies that can be detected using laboratory techniques. In this way, collected serum samples from free ranging white-tailed deer can be used to monitor the presence of the virus in ecosystems. This study developed and tested a risk index model designed to predict EEEV activity in white-tailed deer in a three-county area of Michigan. The model evaluates EEEV risk...
Speed and Cardiac Recovery Variables Predict the Probability of Elimination in Equine Endurance Events. Nearly 50% of the horses participating in endurance events are eliminated at a veterinary examination (a vet gate). Detecting unfit horses before a health problem occurs and treatment is required is a challenge for veterinarians but is essential for improving equine welfare. We hypothesized that it would be possible to detect unfit horses earlier in the event by measuring heart rate recovery variables. Hence, the objective of the present study was to compute logistic regressions of heart rate, cardiac recovery time and average speed data recorded at the previous vet gate (n-1) and thus predict...
Energetics of endurance exercise in young horses determined by nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Long-term endurance exercise severely affects metabolism in both human and animal athletes resulting in serious risk of metabolic disorders during or after competition. Young horses (up to 6 years old) can compete in races up to 90 km despite limited scientific knowledge of energetic metabolism responses to long distance exercise in these animals. The hypothesis of this study was that there would be a strong effect of endurance exercise on the metabolomic profiles of young horses and that the energetic metabolism response in young horses would be different from that of more experienced horses....
Novel in vitro diagnosis of equine allergies using a protein array and mathematical modelling approach: a proof of concept using insect bite hypersensitivity. Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is a seasonal recurrent skin allergy of horses caused by IgE-mediated reactions to allergens present in the saliva of biting insects of the genus Culicoides, and possibly also Simulium and Stomoxys species. In this work we show that protein microarrays containing complex extracts and pure proteins, including recombinant Culicoides allergens, can be used as a powerful technique for the diagnosis of IBH. Besides the obvious advantages such as general profiling and use of few microliters of samples, this microarray technique permits automation and allows the gen...
Estimation of articular cartilage properties using multivariate analysis of optical coherence tomography signal. The aim was to investigate the applicability of multivariate analysis of optical coherence tomography (OCT) information for determining structural integrity, composition and mechanical properties of articular cartilage. Methods: Equine osteochondral samples (N = 65) were imaged with OCT, and their total attenuation and backscattering coefficients (μt and μb) were measured. Subsequently, the Mankin score, optical density (OD) describing the fixed charge density, light absorbance in amide I region (Aamide), collagen orientation, permeability, fibril network modulus (Ef) and non-fibrillar mat...
Risk factors for recurrence of atrial fibrillation in horses after cardioversion to sinus rhythm. Although atrial fibrillation (AF) can be successfully treated in horses, recurrence occurs frequently. In humans, atrial function after cardioversion can predict recurrence. Objective: To examine the prognostic value of atrial mechanical function at 24 hours after cardioversion and other potential predictor variables for AF recurrence in horses. Methods: 117 horses treated for AF at 4 referral centers. Methods: Retrospective study. Inclusion criteria were successful cardioversion, echocardiography at 24 hours after cardioversion and ≥4 months follow-up. To determine factors associated with A...
A mechanostatistical approach to cortical bone remodelling: an equine model. In this study, the development of a mechanostatistical model of three-dimensional cortical bone remodelling informed with in vivo equine data is presented. The equine model was chosen as it is highly translational to the human condition due to similar Haversian systems, availability of in vivo bone strain and biomarker data, and furthermore, equine models are recommended by the US Federal Drugs Administration for comparative joint research. The model was derived from micro-computed tomography imaged specimens taken from the equine third metacarpal bone, and the Frost-based 'mechanostat' was in...
A model for the dynamics of the free-living stages of equine cyathostomins. Anthelmintic resistance in strongyle nematode parasites of horses is an expanding global problem and steps need to be taken to slow its development before control becomes more problematic. A move away from traditional deworming programmes, involving frequent whole-herd treatments with broad spectrum anthelmintics, to a more strategic or targeted use of chemicals is required. However, anthelmintic resistance management strategies which also maintain effective control are invariably more complicated and often require a greater understanding of both nematode epidemiology and grazing management, t...
Correlation of radiographic measurements of structures of the equine foot with lesions detected on magnetic resonance imaging. There are few studies on the correlations between radiographic measurements of the foot and abnormalities of specific structures found with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Objective: To document the relationship between radiographic measurements of the equine foot and the presence of lesions in the foot on MRI. We hypothesised that different radiographic measurements would be associated with specific lesions detected by MRI. Methods: Retrospective analysis of radiographs and MRI studies. Methods: Seventy-four feet from 52 lame horses were included. Twenty parameters were measured on radiogra...
Modeling equine race surface vertical mechanical behaviors in a musculoskeletal modeling environment. Race surfaces have been associated with the incidence of racehorse musculoskeletal injury, the leading cause of racehorse attrition. Optimal race surface mechanical behaviors that minimize injury risk are unknown. Computational models are an economical method to determine optimal mechanical behaviors. Previously developed equine musculoskeletal models utilized ground reaction floor models designed to simulate a stiff, smooth floor appropriate for a human gait laboratory. Our objective was to develop a computational race surface model (two force-displacement functions, one linear and one nonlin...
Outcome of adult horses with botulism treated at a veterinary hospital: 92 cases (1989-2013). There are no studies evaluating a large population of adult horses treated for botulism. Reported survival rates in outbreak situations are low; however, many horses in outbreaks do not receive treatment. Objective: That adult horses treated at a veterinary hospital would have improved survival compared to outbreak situations. Additional aims included identification of predictors of nonsurvival. Methods: All horses greater than 6 months of age with a final diagnosis of botulism admitted to a veterinary teaching hospital between 1989 and 2013 were included. Methods: Retrospective study. Histori...
Using Bayes’ rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance. In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the post...
Development of a likelihood of survival scoring system for hospitalized equine neonates using generalized boosted regression modeling. Medical management of critically ill equine neonates (foals) can be expensive and labor intensive. Predicting the odds of foal survival using clinical information could facilitate the decision-making process for owners and clinicians. Numerous prognostic indicators and mathematical models to predict outcome in foals have been published; however, a validated scoring method to predict survival in sick foals has not been reported. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system that can be used by clinicians to predict likelihood of survival of equine neonates based on clinica...
A decision tree model for the implementation of a safety strategy in the horse-racing industry. The profession of a horse-racing jockey is a dangerous one. We developed a decision tree model quantifying the effects of implementing different safety strategies on jockey fall and injury rates and their associated costs. Methods: Data on race-day falls were obtained from stewards' reports from August 2002 to July 2009. Insurance claim data were provided by Principal Racing Authorities and workers' compensation authorities in each jurisdiction. Fall and claim incidence data were used as baseline rates. The model considered (1) the status quo, in which policy was unchanged; and (2) compared it...
A reaction norm model approach to estimate the genetic effect of temperature on sportive performance of trotter horses. The performance results of Spanish Trotter Horses were merged with the information from the nearest official weather stations, to estimate the effects of temperature (T) on speed during the day of the race. The resulting data set included: 104 125 individual results from 7653 races with 3772 participant horses and driven by 1402 jockeys. After a classical repeatability animal model in which the effects of T were assumed null, a total of five different random regression models (RRM) with the same fixed part were applied in a parsimonious nested process in which the (co)variance components for ...
Can high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography imaging of subchondral and cortical bone predict condylar fracture in Thoroughbred racehorses? High-resolution 3D imaging may improve the prediction and/or early identification of condylar fractures of the distal metacarpus/tarsus and reduce the frequency of breakdown injury in racehorses. Objective: To test the hypotheses that horses suffering condylar fractures have higher bone volume fraction (BV/TV) of the distal metacarpal epiphysis, greater subchondral bone thickness at the fracture site and higher second moment of inertia in the metacarpal midshaft as identified with high-resolution 3D imaging. Methods: Cross-sectional study using cadaver material. Methods: Thoroughbreds that die...
Computed tomographic imaging of subchondral fatigue cracks in the distal end of the third metacarpal bone in the thoroughbred racehorse can predict crack micromotion in an ex-vivo model. Articular stress fracture arising from the distal end of the third metacarpal bone (MC3) is a common serious injury in Thoroughbred racehorses. Currently, there is no method for predicting fracture risk clinically. We describe an ex-vivo biomechanical model in which we measured subchondral crack micromotion under compressive loading that modeled high speed running. Using this model, we determined the relationship between subchondral crack dimensions measured using computed tomography (CT) and crack micromotion. Thoracic limbs from 40 Thoroughbred racehorses that had sustained a catastrophic in...
Diagnostic and predictive capability of routine laboratory tests for the diagnosis and staging of equine inflammatory disease. A wide spectrum of laboratory tests is available to aid diagnosis and classification of equine inflammatory disease. Objective: To compare diagnostic efficacy and combined predictive capability of the myeloperoxidase index (MPXI), and plasma fibrinogen, iron and serum amyloid A (SAA) concentrations for the diagnosis of inflammation. Methods: Twenty-six hospitalized horses with systemic inflammation (SI), 114 with local inflammation (LI) and 61 healthy horses or those with noninflammatory disease (NI) were included. Methods: A retrospective study was performed; clinicopathologic data from horse...
Electrocardiographic indicators of excitability in horses for predicting recovery quality after general anaesthesia. To determine whether preoperative electrocardiographic measurements linked to sympathetic nervous activity could be used to predict recovery quality after general anaesthesia in horses. Methods: Prospective, clinical study. Methods: Eighteen adult client-owned horses. Methods: The electrocardiogram (ECG) was recorded presurgery in horses under three standard conditions: stabled unattended; with a groom whilst being led along a standard course; alone in the induction box. After surgery, each animal's recovery quality was scored by eight experienced anaesthetists or technicians using Donaldson's...
An approach of estimating individual growth curves for young thoroughbred horses based on their birthdays. We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter den...
Naturally and stimulated levels of reactive oxygen species in cooled stallion semen destined for artificial insemination. The decrease in foaling rates after artificial insemination with cooled semen warrants the search for new predictors of fertility. The objectives were to investigate levels of naturally occurring reactive oxygen species (ROS) in cooled, stored stallion semen doses for artificial insemination (AI), and their relationship with parameters of semen quality and with pregnancy rate. Semen was collected from warmblood stallions (n=15) and used to prepare commercial semen doses for AI. Sperm quality was evaluated after cooled transport to the laboratory overnight. The results were correlated with obse...
Clinical Sentinel Surveillance of Equine West Nile Fever, Spain. West Nile fever (WNF) is a viral zoonotic infection caused by a mosquito-borne flavivirus of the Flaviviridae family. According to a comparative study, the passive surveillance of horses by equine veterinarians appeared to be the most cost-effective system in the European context of WNF. Clinical data issued from a passive epidemiosurveillance network from September 2010 to December 2011 on horses in Spain were statistically compared and used to develop a predictive diagnostic decision tree, both with the aim to improve the early clinical detection of WNF in horses. Although clinical signs wer...
Genetic parameters and breeding values for semen characteristics in Hanoverian stallions. The objectives of this study were to show whether semen traits of 30 Hanoverian stallions regularly used in AI may be useful for breeding purposes. Semen characteristics were studied using 15 149 ejaculates from 30 Hanoverian stallions of the State Stud Celle of Lower Saxony. Semen samples were collected between 2005 and 2009. Traits analysed were gel-free volume, sperm concentration, total and motile sperm number and progressive motility. A linear multivariate animal model was employed to estimate heritabilities and permanent environmental variances for stallions. The same model was used to p...
A risk index model for predicting eastern equine encephalitis virus transmission to horses in Florida. A GIS-based risk index model was developed to quantify EEEV transmission risk to horses in the State of Florida. EEEV is a highly pathogenic arbovirus that is endemic along the east coast of the United States, and it is generally fatal to both horses and humans. The model evaluates EEEV transmission risk at individual raster cells in map on a continuous scale of 0 to 1. The risk index is derived based on local habitat features and the composition and configuration of surrounding land cover types associated with EEEV transmission. The model was verified and validated using the locations of docu...
Performance selection for Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong. Different indicators of racing performance are commonly used in the racing industry to assess the genetic superiority of racing Thoroughbreds. However, how well these indicators predict the performance of future progeny or siblings varies depending on the population and circumstances in which the indicators were recorded or achieved. Objective: To identify heritable indicators of racing performance for horses racing in Hong Kong. Methods: Heritability analysis of racing performance traits. Methods: Performance data on the population of Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 3 September 2000...
