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Topic:Predictive Model

Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Reliability of using results of abdominal fluid analysis to determine treatment and predict lesion type and outcome for horses with colic: 218 cases (1991-1994).
Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association    October 20, 1998   Volume 213, Issue 7 1012-1015 
Freden GO, Provost PJ, Rand WM.To assess clinical utility of abdominal fluid analysis in predicting outcome, lesion type, and whether medical or surgical treatment is indicated for horses with colic. Methods: Retrospective study. Methods: 218 horses > 1 year old. Methods: Horses were classified on the basis of age, site of lesion, lesion type (nonstrangulating vs strangulating), type of treatment (medical vs surgical), and outcome (survival vs nonsurvival). Sensitivity and specificity of using age and results of abdominal fluid analysis, individually and in combination, to predict lesion type, type of treatment, and outc...
A model equation for the prediction of mechanical internal work of terrestrial locomotion.
Journal of biomechanics    September 4, 1998   Volume 31, Issue 5 463-468 doi: 10.1016/s0021-9290(98)00038-4
Minetti AE.By refining a previously published model, a simple equation for the estimation of the mechanical internal work during locomotion is presented. The only input variables are the progression speed, the stride frequency and the duty factor, i.e. the fraction of the stride duration at which a foot is in contact with the ground. The inclusion of this last variable, easily measurable, allows to obtain a single equation for both walking and running. The model predictions have been compared with the mechanical internal work experimentally obtained on humans in several conditions: speeds (range 0.8-3.3 ...
Progesterone determination in equine plasma using different immunoassays.
Acta veterinaria Hungarica    August 26, 1998   Volume 46, Issue 4 501-513 
Nagy P, Solti L, Kulcsár M, Reiczigel J, Huszenicza G, Abaváry K, Wölfling A.Several assay systems (3H radioimmunoassay (RIA) with and without extraction; microplate enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA); qualitative ELISA (tube test)] were used to measure plasma progesterone concentration in mare plasma. The direct RIA showed a close correlation (R = 0.94) with the extraction RIA. The direct RIA and the microplate ELISA were compared in two different studies. In the first study 1155 samples of postpartum mares were used for progesterone determination with both assays. The ELISA resulted in more elevated values both in oestrus and dioestrus (0.19+/-0.3 and 2.44+/-3.62 nmol...
Comparison of anion gap and strong ion gap as predictors of unmeasured strong ion concentration in plasma and serum from horses.
American journal of veterinary research    July 11, 1998   Volume 59, Issue 7 881-887 
Constable PD, Hinchcliff KW, Muir WW.To compare the accuracy of anion gap (AG) and strong ion gap (SIG) for predicting unmeasured strong ion concentration in plasma and serum from horses. Methods: 6 well-trained Standardbred horses undergoing high-intensity exercise (experimental study) and 78 horses and ponies that underwent i.v. administration of lactic acid or endotoxin, and endurance, submaximal, or high-intensity exercise. Methods: Anion gap was calculated as AG = (Na+ + K+) - (Cl- + HCO3-), and SIG was calculated, using the simplified strong ion model, whereby SIG (mEq/L) = 2.24 x total protein (g/dl)/(1 + 10(6.65-pH)) - AG...
Application of probability techniques to the objective interpretation of veterinary clinical biochemistry data.
The Veterinary record    May 8, 1998   Volume 142, Issue 13 323-327 doi: 10.1136/vr.142.13.323
Knox KM, Reid SW, Love S, Murray M, Gettinby G.Methods for the interpretation of veterinary clinical biochemistry have not developed as rapidly as biochemical technology. However, the results of clinical biochemistry tests are only of value when they are interpreted appropriately. A retrospective study was undertaken to investigate the equine biochemistry data which had been stored in a veterinary hospital database. By applying percentile analysis and Bayesian probability methods to the clinical biochemistry and corresponding diagnosis data, a novel method for the interpretation of clinical biochemistry data has been developed. The method ...
Sampling with light traps and human bait in epidemic foci for eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus in southeastern Massachusetts.
Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association    February 25, 1998   Volume 13, Issue 4 348-355 
Vaidyanathan R, Edman JD.To estimate human exposure to potential vectors of eastern equine encephalomyelitis (EEE) virus, we compared collections of putative EEE virus vectors from human biting collections with collections from CDC, AB (American Biophysics), and New Jersey light traps and resting boxes in enzootic/epidemic foci of EEE virus in southeastern Massachusetts. Human biting collections caught significantly more host-seeking females than resting boxes or unbaited light traps (P < 0.05). Regression analysis of human biting collections to AB traps supplemented with CO2 could predict 60-70% of the actual human b...
[Examination of the appropriateness of anamnestic and clinical parameters for the prediction of the course of pregnancy under field conditions].
DTW. Deutsche tierarztliche Wochenschrift    August 1, 1997   Volume 104, Issue 8 313-316 
Heilkenbrinker T, Kossin C, Scherbarth R, Frerking H.In this paper, fertility relevant parameters which are routinely examined in practice were evaluated on the basis of their correlation to one another and their influence on the foaling rates and incidence of early embryonic death in 175 brood mares of the Hanover breeding stock. The aim was to evaluate the suitability of these parameters for inclusion in a scheme for increasing the precision of predicting the subsequent course of pregnancy, as compared to such prognoses based exclusively on the histological evaluation of the endometrium. After establishing the breeding history and completing a...
Development and validation of a series of three-dimensional finite element models of the equine metacarpus.
Journal of biomechanics    July 1, 1997   Volume 30, Issue 7 737-742 doi: 10.1016/s0021-9290(97)00007-9
Les CM, Keyak JH, Stover SM, Taylor KT.Three-dimensional finite element (FE) models of the left metacarpi of five adult horses were developed from quantitative computed tomography data, using the algorithms of Keyak et al. (1990, J Biomed. Engng 12, 389-397). The metacarpi were then equipped with 12 rosette strain gauges and loaded non-destructively in a mechanical testing machine. The bones and the models were loaded in axial compression, with the load evenly distributed across the distal row of carpal bones, and with a point load placed mediad to the sagittal midline, to a load equivalent to three times body weight (-15 kN); and ...
Validation of a regression model for standardizing lifetime racing performances of thoroughbreds.
Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association    June 1, 1997   Volume 210, Issue 11 1641-1645 
Martin GS, Strand E, Kearney MT.To determine the relationship between prediction errors of a regression model of racing finish times and earnings or finish position; the relationship between standardized finish times, determined by use of this model, and earnings or finish position; and whether this model was valid when applied to data for horses that underwent surgical treatment. Methods: Survey. Methods: Records of 6,700 healthy Thoroughbreds racing in Louisiana and of 31 Thoroughbreds with idiopathic left laryngeal hemiplegia that underwent surgical treatment. Methods: Predicted and standardized finish times were calculat...
Prognosis for neonatal foals in an intensive care unit.
Journal of veterinary internal medicine    May 1, 1997   Volume 11, Issue 3 183-188 doi: 10.1111/j.1939-1676.1997.tb00088.x
Furr M, Tinker MK, Edens L.This study was conducted to develop an equation for the prediction of outcome in neonatal foals undergoing treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU). Fifty-three physical examination, historical, and clinicopathologic variables were analyzed from the records of 99 neonatal foals (< 14 days of age) treated in the neonatal ICU of the Equine Medical Center. The outcome was recorded and the results were categorized into either surviving or nonsurviving groups. The mean values for the 2 groups were compared, and variables that differed significantly between the two groups were retained and used ...
Ground reaction forces in horses, assessed from hoof wall deformation using artificial neural networks.
Equine veterinary journal. Supplement    May 1, 1997   Issue 23 6-8 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1997.tb05041.x
Savelberg HH, Van Loon T, Schamhardt HC.An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to investigate whether hoof wall deformation could be used to determine ground reaction forces (GRF) in horses. The ANN was taught this relationship under certain conditions and was able to generalise this knowledge to conditions for which it was not trained before. To acquire data to train and test the ANN, a horse was equipped with strain gauges attached to the dorsal, lateral and medial parts of the hoof to assess hoof wall deformation. A force plate was used to measure the GRFs. Both hoof wall deformation and GRF were recorded simultaneously...
Use of the relationship between blood lactate and running speed to determine the exercise intensity of horses.
The Veterinary record    August 3, 1996   Volume 139, Issue 5 108-110 doi: 10.1136/vr.139.5.108
Guhl A, Lindner A, von Wittke P.Eight thoroughbred horses, trained for racing competition, were subjected to a standardised incremental speed test to determine the relationship between their blood lactate concentrations and running speed. Between 14 days before and 14 days after completing the standardised exercise test, the horses were timed for runs of 2000 to 6000 m. The blood lactate concentration after each run was measured and compared with the blood lactate concentration predicted from the individual horse's blood lactate-running speed relationship curve determined from the standardised exercise test. The relationship...
Integrative model for predicting thermal balance in exercising horses.
Equine veterinary journal. Supplement    July 1, 1996   Issue 22 7-15 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1996.tb05026.x
Mostert HJ, Lund RJ, Guthrie AJ, Cilliers PJ.A theoretical integrative model was developed to determine the heat balance of horses working in a given environment. This model included the following parameters: metabolic heat gain, solar heat gain, evaporative heat loss due to sweating, respiratory tract heat loss, radiation from the body and heat gain or loss due to convection and conduction. The model developed in this study includes an unique approach for estimating heat loss via evaporation of sweat from the animal's skin surface. Previous studies modelling evaporative heat dissipation were based on the volume of sweat loss. While it i...
Estimation of the liveweight and body condition of working donkeys in Morocco.
The Veterinary record    March 9, 1996   Volume 138, Issue 10 229-233 doi: 10.1136/vr.138.10.229
Pearson RA, Ouassat M.The age, sex, liveweight and body measurements (heart girth, umbilical girth, height, length from elbow to tuber ischii and circumference of the foreleg cannon bone) of 516 donkeys used to transport goods in Morocco were recorded. There were few donkeys over 12 years of age. For adult donkeys weighing from 74 to 252 kg, the best equation with only one variable for predicting liveweight was: liveweight (kg) = heart girth (cm)2.65/2188. The inclusion of two variables improved the prediction marginally, but the addition of further variables gave little further improvement. The best prediction equ...
[Differentiated prognosis in the colicky horse].
Tierarztliche Praxis    October 1, 1995   Volume 23, Issue 5 475-480 
Ebert R.In a retrospective study on 271 horses with colic the prediction about the outcome of the disease was made by a discriminating analysis. The best combination of quantitative prognostic parameters was capillary refill time, hematocrit, lactate and anion gap, with 90% correct predictions. In comparison with individually prognostic parameters, the combined prognosis constantly reached a higher percentage of correct predictions, the exact value resulting in 89%. Moreover, survival was better predictable than death.
An evaluation of the accuracy of ageing horses by their dentition: can a computer model be accurate?
The Veterinary record    August 5, 1995   Volume 137, Issue 6 139-140 doi: 10.1136/vr.137.6.139
Richardson JD, Cripps PJ, Lane JG.The prediction of the age of a horse from its dentition has been widely accepted as an accurate technique, but recent reports have questioned this belief. In this study the dental features of 434 thoroughbreds of known age were documented and a multiple regression equation was calculated from the 13 dental features which had the highest correlation with true age. The accuracy of the ages assessed by a computer model were compared with the ages estimated by experienced equine clinicians. There was little difference between the accuracy of the computer model and the human observers, and neither ...
Predictive value of foal kinematics for the locomotor performance of adult horses.
Research in veterinary science    July 1, 1995   Volume 59, Issue 1 64-69 doi: 10.1016/0034-5288(95)90033-0
Back W, Schamhardt HC, Hartman W, Bruin G, Barneveld A.The gait of 24 horses was recorded on a treadmill when they were trotting at 4 m sec-1, first when they were four months old and again when they were 26 months. The data recorded at four months were used to predict the locomotion of the adult horses, and the predictions were assessed against the data recorded at 26 months. The locomotion of the foals and the adults appeared to be closely related, when the differences in segment length and joint angles due to growth were taken into account. The duration of swing, the total range of protraction and retraction, and the maximum tarsal flexion coul...
A mouse model for testing the pathogenicity of equine herpes virus-1 strains.
Journal of virological methods    July 1, 1995   Volume 54, Issue 1 39-49 doi: 10.1016/0166-0934(95)00024-o
van Woensel PA, Goovaerts D, Markx D, Visser N.A mouse model was developed for testing the pathogenicity of equine herpes virus-1 (EHV-1) strains. The model was validated with EHV-1 strains that are known to be of a low or high pathogenicity in horses. From all parameters tested, the safety index, which was calculated from the body weights of the mice after infection, proved to be the best predictive parameter. When this parameter was used, good and reliable correlations were found with the pathogenicity of the EHV-1 strains in horses. This method enabled the differentiation between the two experimental EHV-1 strains whose genetic backgrou...
The accuracy of predicting Thoroughbred heart scores.
New Zealand veterinary journal    April 1, 1995   Volume 43, Issue 2 57-59 doi: 10.1080/00480169.1995.35848
Blakely JA, Blakely AA.Veterinarians commonly predict mature heart scores for yearling and 2-year-old horses to aid clients in assessing a horse's racing potential. Sixty-six thoroughbreds were assessed as a yearlings or 2-year-olds, then re-assessed as a mature horse (over the age of 3). Of these horses, 82% of the yearlings and 87% of the 2-year-olds had a correctly predicted mature heart score within one heart score range (i.e. three points).
Epidemiological risk factors associated with a diagnosis of clinical cyathostomiasis in the horse.
Equine veterinary journal    March 1, 1995   Volume 27, Issue 2 127-130 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1995.tb03048.x
Reid SW, Mair TS, Hillyer MH, Love S.Multiple logistic regression was used to assess epidemiological risk factors associated with the diagnosis of cyathostomiasis in 87 cases of chronic diarrhoea in the horse. Age, season and the period since last receiving anthelmintics were identified as important risk factors using chi-square and two-sample t test analyses, whereas access to grazing, shared grazing with other horses and recurrence of signs were only weakly associated with a diagnosis of cyathostomiasis. Multivariate analysis of the parameters using logistic regression was performed. The final model included age, season and tim...
Development of a colic severity score for predicting the outcome of equine colic.
Veterinary surgery : VS    March 1, 1995   Volume 24, Issue 2 97-101 doi: 10.1111/j.1532-950x.1995.tb01302.x
Furr MO, Lessard P, White NA.Thirty-two physical examination and laboratory variables were recorded during examination of 165 horses admitted for acute abdominal disease. Univariate analyses were performed to determine which of the variables were significantly different between horses that lived or died. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to identify variables with the best predictive value. Four variables (heart rate, peritoneal fluid total protein concentration, blood lactate concentration, and abnormal mucous membrane) remained significant when entered into the model. Histograms for each significant variable we...
Principal component analysis, using the measurements during running and swimming test, in thoroughbred horses.
The Journal of veterinary medical science    December 1, 1994   Volume 56, Issue 6 1075-1080 doi: 10.1292/jvms.56.1075
Misumi K, Hirakawa A, Sakamoto H, Shimizu R.To investigate whether the running exercise fitness of individual horses could be assessed by a standardized swimming exercise test, the results of multivariate analysis of the exercise parameters measured during incremental running and swimming tests were compared. Ten thoroughbred horses were subjected to different types of exercise tests on a track or in a pool, and the maximum heart rate during and the blood lactate concentration immediately after the exercise were examined. Serial exercise parameters (VLA2, VLA4, LA0, V150, V200, HRS, HRLA2, HRLA4) referred to as the indices related to th...
Plasma concentrations and therapeutic efficacy of phenylbutazone and flunixin meglumine in the horse: pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling.
Journal of veterinary pharmacology and therapeutics    December 1, 1994   Volume 17, Issue 6 459-469 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2885.1994.tb00278.x
Toutain PL, Autefage A, Legrand C, Alvinerie M.The purpose of the present study was to establish in the horse the relationship between plasma concentration profiles of phenylbutazone (PBZ) and flunixin meglumine (FM) and their pharmacological effects in order to build a predictive pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model. In five horses, an experimental arthritis was induced by injecting Freund's adjuvant into a carpal joint. PBZ (4 mg/kg) and FM (1 mg/kg) were injected by the intravenous route as a single intravenous dose in two different trials. Five pharmacodynamic end-points were regularly measured after test article injection usi...
A comparison of the polymerase chain reaction with standard laboratory methods for the detection of EHV-1 and EHV-4 in archival tissue samples.
New Zealand veterinary journal    June 1, 1994   Volume 42, Issue 3 93-96 doi: 10.1080/00480169.1994.35794
O'Keefe JS, Julian A, Moriarty K, Murray A, Wilks CR.A detection system incorporating the polymerase chain reaction was compared with the use of histopathology and virus isolation to determine the presence of equid herpesvirus type 1 or equid herpesvirus type 4 in equine tissues submitted to a diagnostic laboratory. When the polymerase chain reaction was performed, these tissues had been stored for up to 3 years. Thirty-eight tissues representing 14 cases had been stored embedded in paraffin wax. Analysis of these tissues using the PCR gave predictive values of 1.0 and 0.91 for a positive and negative result respectively, and sensitivity and spe...
Use of clinical measurements to predict the outcome in chronic cases of grass sickness (equine dysautonomia).
The Veterinary record    April 23, 1994   Volume 134, Issue 17 438-440 doi: 10.1136/vr.134.17.438
Milne EM, Woodman MP, Doxey DL.Forty-five cases of chronic grass sickness were given scores for selected clinical measurements when they were first examined, to assess their value in predicting survival. Sixteen cases survived. The clinical scores for the degree of dysphagia, appetite, colic and the degree of reduction in gut sounds were significantly lower in the survivors than in the non-survivors. In addition, only the non-survivors had severe rhinitis. Ponies were significantly less likely to survive than cob types.
Cross-validation of cyanogen bromide-peptide ratios to measure the proportion of type II collagen in pepsin digests of equine articular cartilage, meniscus, and cartilage repair tissue.
Analytical biochemistry    January 1, 1994   Volume 216, Issue 1 195-204 doi: 10.1006/abio.1994.1025
Todhunter RJ, Wootton JA, Altman N, Lust G, Minor RR.Collagen type I and type II were purified from equine flexor tendon and articular cartilage, respectively. Equal amounts of these collagens were cleaved with cyanogen bromide, and 11 mixtures containing increasing proportions of type II collagen were separated in seven identical sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gels. The density of bands was measured in wet gels and the peak areas were used to form six ratios of peptide bands that had polynomial relationships with the known proportions of type I and type II collagen in the mixtures. Calibration curves for determining the proportion of typ...
Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE): a description of the 1989 outbreak, recent epidemiologic trends, and the association of rainfall with EEE occurrence.
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene    December 1, 1993   Volume 49, Issue 6 677-685 doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1993.49.677
Letson GW, Bailey RE, Pearson J, Tsai TF.An Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) outbreak in 1989 led to nine human and 196 equine cases, chiefly in coastal Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties. In the past two decades, EEE age-specific incidence and mortality rates have declined compared with earlier years. Analysis of rainfall patterns in areas where human EEE cases occurred between 1983 and 1989 revealed an association between occurrence of human cases and excess rainfall. The association was stronger with data from local weather stations than from statewide rainfall averages and the predictive models were best when applied to northern s...
Diagnosis and prediction of cervical vertebral malformation in thoroughbred foals based on semi-quantitative radiographic indicators.
Equine veterinary journal    September 1, 1993   Volume 25, Issue 5 435-440 doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1993.tb02986.x
Mayhew IG, Donawick WJ, Green SL, Galligan DT, Stanley EK, Osborne J.Over a period of 5 years on a central Kentucky Thoroughbred stud farm 132 foals were evaluated for the presence of cervical vertebral malformation (CVM). Lateral cervical vertebral radiographs were obtained on 70 standing foals. These radiographs were evaluated semi-quantitatively and scored numerically for the presence of stenosis of the vertebral canal, enlarged physeal growth plates, caudal extension of the dorsal border of the orifice of the vertebral canal, angular fixation, delayed ossification of bone and degenerative joint disease. From these scores a total CVM score was given for each...
Sex does not influence serum osteocalcin levels in standardbred horses of different ages.
Canadian journal of veterinary research = Revue canadienne de recherche veterinaire    October 1, 1992   Volume 56, Issue 4 379-381 
Lepage OM, Marcoux M, Tremblay A, Dumas G.The influence of sex on serum osteocalcin levels was studied in 99 Standardbred horses, 52 males and 47 females. The age varied between the day of birth and five years old. A significant inverse correlation (r = -0.87, p 0.05). When the subjects were divided into five age groups of six months or less, 6 to 18, 18 to 24, 24 to 36 and between 36 and 60 months, no significant influence of sex was noted. A predictive model for serum osteocalcin levels (y = 52.19 - 0.026 age in days, r2 = 0.76) for Standardbred horses aged between the day of birth and five years is described.
Prognostic variables for survival of neonatal foals under intensive care.
Journal of veterinary internal medicine    March 1, 1992   Volume 6, Issue 2 89-95 doi: 10.1111/j.1939-1676.1992.tb03157.x
Hoffman AM, Staempfli HR, Willan A.The costly nature of intensive care for neonatal foals prompted a study of predictive variables for survival in a referral hospital. Applying stepforward logistic regression to parameters that differed significantly (P less than 0.10) between survivors (S) and nonsurvivors (NS) in a retrospective study (n = 56), two variables retained statistical significance [anion gap (AG, P = 0.0047) and venous PO2 (PvO2, P = 0.0342)], thus forming the basis for a predictive equation for survival: the Pn (probability of NS) = eA/(1 + eA) where A = -1.46 - 0.107 (PvO2) + 0.213 (AG). The predictive equation w...