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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Estimating Total-Tract Digestibility of Nutrients and Their Contribution to Digestible Energy Supplies in Equine Diets. Our objectives were to use a quantitative literature review to explore dietary and feed factors influencing apparent total-tract digestibility of dry matter (DMD), crude protein (CPD), neutral detergent fiber (NDFD), ether extract (EED), non-structural carbohydrates (NSCD), non-fiber carbohydrates (NFCD), and residual organic matter (rOMD) in equine diets, and to assess their contributions to digestible energy (DE) supplies. Data from 54 studies were modeled using linear mixed-effect regressions, with publication as a random effect to account for study variability. For each nutrient, five mode...
Comparative Analysis of Genomic and Pedigree-Based Approaches for Genetic Evaluation of Morphological Traits in Pura Raza Española Horses. The single-step best linear unbiased predictor (ssGBLUP) has emerged as a reference method for genomic selection in recent years due to its advantages over traditional approaches. Although its application in horses remains limited, ssGBLUP has demonstrated the potential to improve the reliability of estimated breeding values in livestock species. This study aimed to assess the impact of incorporating genomic data using single-step restricted maximum likelihood (ssGREML) on reliability (R) in the Pura Raza Española (PRE) horse breed, compared to traditional pedigree-based REML. Methods: The an...
Distal limb immersion in ice and water is the most effective means of cooling the equine hoof lamellae under clinically relevant conditions. To determine the relationship between hoof surface (HS), hoof wall (HW), and lamellar tissue (LAM) temperature during distal limb cooling and evaluate 4 cooling methods in ambulatory horses over extended periods using HW to estimate LAM temperature. Methods: 8 healthy, university-owned horses were enrolled. Temperature was measured over 4 hours at LAM, HS, and HW for 4 cooling methods: ice sleeve (SLEEVE), ice pack system (ICEPACK), low-volume ice water immersion (LV-IMMERSION), and high-volume ice water immersion (HV-IMMERSION). The relationship between HW, HS, and LAM was mathematically mode...
From Prediction to Precision: Explainable AI-Driven Insights for Targeted Treatment in Equine Colic. Colic is a leading cause of mortality in horses, demanding precise and timely interventions. This study integrates machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to predict survival outcomes in horses with colic, using clinical, procedural, and diagnostic data. Random forest and XGBoost emerged as top-performing models, achieving F1 scores of 85.9% and 86.1%, respectively. SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) was employed to provide interpretable insights, offering both global and local explanations for model predictions. The analysis revealed that key features, such as pulse r...
Single-Step Genome-Wide Association Study of Factors for Evaluated and Linearly Scored Traits in Swedish Warmblood Horses. Swedish Warmblood horses (SWB) are bred for show jumping and/or dressage with young horse test scores as indicator traits. This study aimed to investigate possible candidate genes and regions of importance for evaluated and linearly scored young horse test traits. A single-step genome-wide association study (ssGWAS) was done using the BLUPF90 suite of programs for factors scores from factor analysis of traits assessed at young horse tests together with height at withers. The ssGWAS included 20,814 SWB with factors scores for four factors for evaluated traits. A total of 6436 of these horses al...
Factors associated with the selling price of sport horses in public auctions in Ireland. Sale prices at auction significantly impact the economic return of sport horse production. This study aimed to determine factors associated with auction sales prices of sport horses at four maturity stages: foals, juveniles, young horses, and older horses. A total of 42,799 sales records from 2003 to 2022 were obtained from two Irish equine auction companies. A univariate regression model was used, and significant variables underwent multivariate analysis. Within each maturity category, factors associated with above-mean-priced horses differed from those associated with below-mean-priced horse...
Real-time transrectal ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal eye (vitreous body) to predict parturition in bucking horse mares. Monitoring gestation and predicting parturition in mares with unknown breeding dates is challenging, especially in pasture bred herds of bucking horses. Transrectal ultrasonographic measurement of fetal vitreous body length is a validated predictor of foaling dates, but previous research suggested a need for breed-specific parameters to develop accurate indices for respective breeds. This study aimed to develop a scale associating fetal vitreous body length with days before parturition (DBP) in bucking horses. Biannual data collection over 2 years identified 199 pregnancies out of 240 reproduc...
Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Western equine encephalitis virus in South America. The Western equine encephalitis virus (WEEV) is a globally relevant vector-borne pathogen that causes encephalitis. The role of environmental variables in the epidemiology of WEEV has become greater in the context of climate change. In December 2023, a significant resurgence of WEEV began in South America, with major ongoing outbreaks in Argentina and Uruguay. In this study, we employed a machine learning algorithm to model the distribution of WEEV in South America, considering both present and future scenarios. Methods: Ecological retrospective study. Methods: We conducted a modelling study t...
Rising trends of inbreeding in Japanese Thoroughbred horses. We investigated the changes in inbreeding levels in Japanese Thoroughbred horses over the past 46 years. Our results show a significant increase in inbreeding over the past 30 years, primarily due to the influence of two sires, Northern Dancer and Sunday Silence. Northern Dancer's bloodline spread gradually through descendants like Northern Taste, leading to a slower increase in the inbreeding coefficient. In contrast, Sunday Silence was directly imported and became a leading sire, causing a rapid increase in his blood proportion and inbreeding coefficient. Our findings suggest that monitoring...
Assessment of horse behavior using an activity monitoring device used for cats and dogs. Including Internet of Things (IoT) technology in horse-rearing management can potentially mitigate problems such as human resource shortages and time limitations in performing daily behavior monitoring. In this study, a small and inexpensive activity meter used to monitor dogs and cats (PLUS CYCLE, JARMeC, Kanagawa, Japan) was used to monitor the daily behavior of horses. A study was performed to examine the suitability of the PLUS CYCLE device for monitoring horses and to determine whether it could estimate horse behavior. The device was equipped with an accelerometer and was used to monitor ...
How does the chemical composition of dung affect nitrous oxide and methane emissions in pasture soils? There is an important gap in how variations in herbivore dung composition affect GHG emissions on pastures, especially due to differences in dry matter (DM) and nitrogen contents. Oversimplifications can compromise the accuracy of mitigation strategies. This study aims to address this gap by investigating how the chemical composition of dung from different species influences GHG emissions in pasture systems. The results showed that drier dung led to higher cumulative N₂O emissions. The highest emissions were observed from goat at 9.47 mg N-N₂O g⁻ dry soil, followed by sheep at 5.95 mg ...
Sleeping and Eating Behavior Recognition of Horses Based on an Improved SlowFast Network. The sleeping and eating behaviors of horses are important indicators of their health. With the development of the modern equine industry, timely monitoring and analysis of these behaviors can provide valuable data for assessing the physiological state of horses. To recognize horse behaviors in stalls, this study builds on the SlowFast algorithm, introducing a novel loss function to address data imbalance and integrating an SE attention module in the SlowFast algorithm's slow pathway to enhance behavior recognition accuracy. Additionally, YOLOX is employed to replace the original target detecti...
A machine learning approach to identify stride characteristics predictive of musculoskeletal injury, enforced rest and retirement in Thoroughbred racehorses. Decreasing speed and stride length over successive races have been shown to be associated with musculoskeletal injury (MSI) in racehorses, demonstrating the potential for early detection of MSI through longitudinal monitoring of changes in stride characteristics. A machine learning (ML) approach for early detection of MSI, enforced rest, and retirement events using this same horse-level, race-level, and stride characteristic data across all race sectionals was investigated. A CatBoost model using features from the two races prior to an event had the highest classification performance (sensitiv...
Horse Diagnosis and Triage Accuracy of GPT-4o. Animal owners may increasingly rely on large language models for gathering animal health information alongside internet sources in the future. This study therefore aims to provide initial results on the accuracy of ChatGPT-4o in triage and tentative diagnostics, using horses as a case study. Ten test vignettes were used to prompt situation assessments from the tool, which were then compared to original assessments made by a veterinary specialist for horses. The most probable diagnosis suggested by ChatGPT-4o was found to be quite accurate in most cases, with the urgency to contact a veterinari...
Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Racing Time and Ranking in Thoroughbred Horses. This study aimed to estimate genetic parameters for race time in seconds and final ranking, as well as to analyze the genetic trends associated with race time. The study utilized a dataset consisting of 23,290 records of race times and final ranks at distances of 1,000, 1,600, and 2,000 m from 6,213 Thoroughbred horses from the São Paulo Jockey Club. Our model considered the year of the run, animal sex, race class, track conditions, the linear effect of horse weight and age, and the quadratic effect of age as fixed covariates. Random effects included direct additive genetic, animal permanent ...
A genome-wide association study of the racing performance traits in Yili horses based on Blink and FarmCPU models. Racing performance traits are the main indicators for evaluating the performance and value of sport horses. The aim of this study was to identify the key genes for racing performance traits in Yili horses by performing a genome-wide association study (GWAS). Breeding values for racing performance traits were calculated for Yili horses (n = 827) using an animal model. Genome-wide association analysis of racing performance traits in horses (n = 236) was carried out using the Blink, and FarmCPU models in GAPIT software, and genes within the significant regions were functionally annotated....
Comparison of blood parameters in two genetically different groups of horses for functional longevity in show jumping. In order to find early selection criteria to improve the longevity of show jumping horses, a specific protocol was designed. Unassigned: Before entering competition, young horses selected from extreme stallions for longevity were measured for many traits, including blood parameters. Blood samples were taken from 952 horses aged 2-4 years old, sired by two groups of stallions: one with unfavorable (U) and the other with favorable (F) extreme estimated breeding values for functional longevity. These breeding values were previously calculated from data on 202,320 horses that participated in show...
Unravelling the speed-going relationship: A proof of concept study from British turf flat and jump race meetings. The maximum galloping speeds of racehorses during a race are influenced by the functional performance of the ground ('going') amongst other factors. For turf racecourses in Britain, the ground is descriptively classified and numerically quantified on the morning of a race meeting by the clerk of the course and subsequently published to assist decision making. Importantly, this includes deciding whether a horse should or should not run. The going is also assessed and classified during the meeting by racing analysts using the normalized winning times from each race result. Differences between go...
Administration Route Differentiation of Altrenogest via the Metabolomic LC-HRMS Analysis of Equine Urine. Altrenogest, also known as allyltrenbolone, is a synthetic form of progesterone used therapeutically to suppress unwanted symptoms of estrus in female horses. Altrenogest affects the system by decreasing levels of endogenous gonadotrophin and luteinizing and follicle-stimulating hormones, which in turn decreases estrogen and mimics the increase of progesterone production. This results in more manageable mares for training and competition alongside male horses while improving the workplace safety of riders and handlers. However, when altrenogest is administered, prohibited steroid impurities su...
Inertial measurement unit technology for gait detection: a comprehensive evaluation of gait traits in two Italian horse breeds. The shift of the horse breeding sector from agricultural to leisure and sports purposes led to a decrease in local breeds' population size due to the loss of their original breeding purposes. Most of the Italian breeds must adapt to modern market demands, and gait traits are suitable phenotypes to help this process. Inertial measurement unit (IMU) technology can be used to objectively assess them. This work aims to investigate on IMU recorded data (i) the influence of environmental factors and biometric measurements, (ii) their repeatability, (iii) the correlation with judge evaluations, and (...
Colostrum conductivity, pH and Brix index as predictors of passive immunity transfer in foals. Foal immunity relies heavily on the absorption of colostrum immunoglobulins; thus, colostrum evaluation is used to predict the transfer of passive immunity (TPI), and its conductivity is associated with TPI in cattle. Leading up to and at parturition, a reduction in colostrum pH and conductivity is thought to be necessary for TPI; however, this remains to be determined. Objective: To assess conductivity, pH, and Brix refractometer index of colostrum to predict the TPI in foals. Methods: Field study. Methods: The colostrum of 241 mares was assessed for conductivity, pH, and Brix index using han...
Analyses of whole-genome sequences from 185 North American Thoroughbred horses, spanning 5 generations. Whole genome sequences (WGS) of 185 North American Thoroughbred horses were compared to quantify the number and frequency of variants, diversity of mitotypes, and autosomal runs of homozygosity (ROH). Of the samples, 82 horses were born between 1965 and 1986 (Group 1); the remaining 103, selected to maximize pedigree diversity, were born between 2000 and 2020 (Group 2). Over 14.3 million autosomal variants were identified with 4.5-5.0 million found per horse. Mitochondrial sequences associated the North American Thoroughbreds with 9 of 17 clades previously identified among diverse breeds. Indi...
Supervised Machine Learning Techniques for Breeding Value Prediction in Horses: An Example Using Gait Visual Scores. Gait scores are widely used in the genetic evaluation of horses. However, the nature of such measurement may limit genetic progress since there is subjectivity in phenotypic information. This study aimed to assess the application of machine learning techniques in the prediction of breeding values for five visual gait scores in Campolina horses: dissociation, comfort, style, regularity, and development. The dataset contained over 5000 phenotypic records with 107,951 horses (14 generations) in the pedigree. A fixed model was used to estimate least-square solutions for fixed effects and adjusted ...
Straight from the horse’s mouth: The effect of different feedstuffs on oral pH in horses and ponies. Feedstuffs, especially ensiled forage, may be detrimental to equid oral health by exposing the oral cavity to low pH. This study aimed to identify if salivary pH was altered by 1) a range of different feedstuffs and (2) specifically by feeding haylages with differing nutrient profiles. Two studies were conducted. The first measured oral pH following five feedstuffs, (hay, haylage, unmolassed sugarbeet pulp, unmolassed alfalfa chaff and rolled oats), tested individually over five days. Saliva (≥1 ml) was collected in triplicate, prior to feeding, directly after ingesting 500 g of each feedstu...
The prognostic importance of physiological and biochemical parameters in horses afflicted with colic. Colic, a primary cause of illness and death in horses, necessitates the development of improved prognostic tools. Unassigned: The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of physiological and biochemical parameters in horses suffering from colic. Unassigned: A comprehensive clinical evaluation of 117 horses included assessment of heart rate, mucous membranes, capillary refill time, rectal temperature, respiratory rate, gut motility, reflux, and limb pulse strength. Unassigned: Stomach reflux, absence of gut noises, and increased heart rate (mean increase of 12 bpm) stro...
Quality Assessment of Reconstructed Cow, Camel and Mare Milk Powders by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics. Milk powders are becoming a major attraction for many industrial applications due to their nutritional and functional properties. Different types of powdered milk, each with their own distinct chemical compositions, can have different functionalities. Consequently, the development of rapid monitoring methods is becoming an urgent task to explore and expand their applicability. Lately, there is growing emphasis on the potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) as a rapid technique for the quality assessment of dairy products. In the present work, we explored the potential of NIRS coupled wi...
Multivariate analysis of morphometric traits of the horse ecotypes reared in highlands of Bale Zone, Ethiopia. This study was conducted to evaluate morphometric traits of horse ecotypes reared in four districts of the Bale highlands, southeastern Ethiopia. Twenty-seven morphometric traits were measured from 500 horses (294 males and 206 females) of both sexes. Data were analyzed using SAS 2012. This study revealed that certain traits, such as head length, loin length, bi-ischial width, and sternum height of horses were similar. However, significant differences ( < 0.0001, < 0.01, < 0.05) were observed in other traits across the districts. All traits were affected by age ( < 0.05) except r...
Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning. Culicoides biting midges exhibit a global spatial distribution and are the main vectors of several viruses of veterinary importance, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). Many environmental and anthropological factors contribute to their ability to live in a variety of habitats, which have the potential to change over the years as the climate changes. Therefore, as new habitats emerge, the risk for new introductions of these diseases of interest to occur increases. The aim of this study was to model distributions for two primary vectors for BT and AHS (Culicoides imicola ...
Explainable machine learning for assessing upper respiratory tract of racehorses from endoscopy videos. Laryngeal hemiplegia (LH) is a major upper respiratory tract (URT) complication in racehorses. Endoscopy imaging of horse throat is a gold standard for URT assessment. However, current manual assessment faces several challenges, stemming from the poor quality of endoscopy videos and subjectivity of manual grading. To overcome such limitations, we propose an explainable machine learning (ML)-based solution for efficient URT assessment. Specifically, a cascaded YOLOv8 architecture is utilized to segment the key semantic regions and landmarks per frame. Several spatiotemporal features are then ex...
Evaluation of circulating miRNAs in mares approaching parturition. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are stable in body fluids and can serve as biomarkers for various diseases and physiological states. Although pregnancy-related miRNAs have been identified in various mammals, studies on parturition-related circulating miRNAs in mares are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to identify parturition-related miRNAs and examine their potential applications in the prediction of parturition date. miRNAs were extracted from the plasma of Thoroughbred mares 30 days (295-326 days pregnant) and 5 (323-352 days pregnant) - 0 (328-357 days pregnant) days before parturition,...
