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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Agreement of the performance of equine electrocardiogram recording devices for ECG complexity analysis. Non-linear equine electrocardiography (ECG) analysis is an actively developing study area which has the potential to lead to novel, artificial intelligence-based diagnostic tools in equine cardiology. As more ECG recording devices are becoming available, there is a need to ensure results are interchangeable regardless of the equipment used to record the equine ECG. Objective: To evaluate the agreement of ECG complexity values obtained using the Televet™ and Equimetre™ systems. Methods: Cross-sectional clinical. Methods: ECGs were recorded using two devices simultaneously from 37 healthy Th...
Statistical approaches for estimating forelimb ground reaction forces in foals during walking and trotting. Equine models are useful in biomechanics research due to their similarity in musculoskeletal tissue to humans, their athletic nature, and rapid skeletal development which permits ontogenetic studies. However, a continuing challenge in musculoskeletal models for large animal biomechanics is measuring the ground reaction force (GRF) during locomotion and therefore few reports of biomechanical measures such as joint torques. Here we evaluate two statistical approaches for estimating forelimb ground reaction forces in foals (n = 3). Longitudinal motion capture, GRF, and subject mass data during ...
Bridging hosts: Domestic horse density and Hendra virus spillover risk in a changing landscape. Anthropogenic climatic and landscape change can drive behavioural shifts in wildlife and thus lead to increased risk of pathogen exposure for humans and domestic animals. While spillover research often focuses on the reservoir hosts or ongoing transmission in humans, livestock and companion animals can play important roles as bridging and amplifying hosts, facilitating the emergence of highly pathogenic diseases. Objective: To investigate the distribution and density of domestic horses in the context of their role as bridge hosts for Hendra virus and build models to study zoonotic emergence. M...
Determinants of stride parameters in Thoroughbreds racing in Japan. To identify the race- and horse-level factors affecting stride parameters during Thoroughbred races in Japan. Unassigned: Global Navigation Satellite System sensors were attached to 921 horses (1,189 starts) participating in 83 races, with distances ranging from 1,000 to 1,800 m, held from April through July 2024. Stride frequency and stride length were calculated from speed spectrograms at 3 racing phases (phase 1, 200 m after gate open; phase 2, 10 m after reaching the final straight stretch; and phase 3, 130 m before the finishing line). Additionally, 10 variables (race distance, surface ty...
A Meta-Analysis of International Flunixin Pharmacokinetics in Horses: Toward Regulatory Harmonization and Individualized Detection Times Using Bayesian Paradigm. Flunixin meglumine is widely used to manage pain and inflammation in horses, and its regulation requires robust pharmacokinetic analysis for harmonization. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis of flunixin disposition using plasma and urine concentration data from 65 horses across four countries to robustly estimate pharmacokinetic parameters in setting screening limits (SLs) for controlling medications in horses. A population (POP) model was developed using nonlinear mixed-effects model analysis. The irrelevant plasma concentration (IPC) and irrelevant urine concentration (IUC) were det...
Fetometry in Arabian horses. This study aimed to monitor intrauterine fetal growth, establish predictive equations for gestational age estimation, and determine the optimal period for fetal sexing in Arabian horses using ultrasonography. Unassigned: Seven Arabian mares were monitored from insemination to parturition using transrectal ultrasonography. The following fetal and embryonic parameters were measured: embryonic vesicle (EV), crown-rump length (CRL), biparietal diameter (BIP), stomach diameter (STD), chest depth (CHD), abdominal diameter (ABD), kidney length (KDL), eyeball diameter (EBD), and eye lens length (ELL)....
Prediction Values for the Influence of Fetal Sex on Plasma Progesterone Concentration in Crioulo Breed Mares: A Preliminary Investigation. In equine reproduction, determining foetal sex is of economic and strategic importance, but currently available methods are often invasive, costly, or require specialised expertise. This study aimed to assess whether plasma progesterone concentrations could serve as a predictive tool for foetal sex determination in Criollo mares between the 4th and 8th months of gestation and to determine whether these measurements could identify foetal sex. Blood samples were collected at 30-day intervals from 17 Crioula mares between 114 days and 240 days of gestation. Maternal plasma progesterone concen...
Pre-operative feeding effects on post-anaesthetic colic and faecal output in horses. Post-anaesthetic colic (PAC) is a complication in horses undergoing general anaesthesia (GA). Various preoperative feeding strategies are used in equine practice, yet their impact on PAC remains unclear. Objective: To identify perioperative risk factors associated with PAC and evaluate the influence of preoperative fasting on PAC prevalence and faecal output. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Medical records of horses undergoing non-abdominal surgery under GA were reviewed. Horses were categorised into fasted and non-fasted groups based on their pre-anaesthetic feeding regimen. Mul...
Changes in equine complete blood count parameters and inflammatory indices with inflammation. Early detection of inflammation using a common test could be a valuable tool for preserving horse health. Objective: This observational study aimed to identify variation in complete blood count (CBC) parameters and inflammatory indices with inflammation, and to develop reference intervals (RIs) from horses with known inflammatory states, hypothesizing that RIs developed from horses with normal acute phase protein concentrations would improve the ability to predict inflammation. Methods: Concentrations of serum amyloid A (SAA) and haptoglobin from clinically healthy horses and horses under vete...
Deep learning approach for classifying grazing behavior in yearling horses using triaxial accelerometer data: A pilot study. Accurate monitoring of grazing behavior in horses is essential for pasture management and welfare evaluation; however, conventional observation methods are labor-intensive and lack temporal resolution. Objective: This pilot study aimed to develop and validate a deep learning model using jaw-mounted accelerometer data to classify grazing and non-grazing behaviors in yearling horses under various pasture conditions. Methods: Four yearling Thoroughbred horses were equipped with triaxle accelerometers mounted under their jaws. Data were recorded at 10 Hz (100 ms) during a 19 h free-grazing period ...
Horses (Equus caballus) successfully solve an object choice task using a human pointing gesture and a physical marker: A partial replication of Proops et al. (2010). Like other domesticated species, most notably dogs, horses have been reported to follow human gestures and successfully use them to gain rewards in an object choice task. Empirical support for the hypothesis that a domain-general mechanism may underlie this ability comes from studies in which horses have successfully solved the task by using not just a human pointing gesture but also an arbitrary physical cue, namely a wooden marker. Here, we replicated the two conditions in which these two cues were used by Proops et al. (2010) with two critical changes: first, we positioned the marker out of...
Use of Artificial Intelligence to Detect Cardiac Rhythm Disturbances in Athletes: A Scoping Review. Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to enhance electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation in human medicine. In equine athletes, exercise-associated arrhythmias are common and linked to sudden cardiac death at rates higher than in humans. However, ECG interpretation in horses remains time-consuming and subjective, with the clinical relevance of mild rhythm disturbances often unclear. Objective: Evaluate the application of AI to ECG interpretation for arrhythmia detection, with emphasis on current and potential use in athletic species, particularly horses. Methods: About 17 studies we...
Equine Abdominal Surgery: Predicting and Preventing Postoperative Complications. Morbidity after equine abdominal surgery is common and post-operative complications can be costly to owners. The focus of this article is on intraoperative decision-making and current evidence, including surgical techniques and prognostic information that can prevent and predict complications. Emerging techniques for intra-operative monitoring and intestinal viability assessment, anastomotic techniques, body wall suturing, peritonitis treatment, and pain management are discussed.
Thoroughbreds deemed to be most at risk by inertial measurement unit sensors suffered a fatal musculoskeletal injury at a higher rate than other racehorses. To determine whether screening of racing Thoroughbreds with accelerometer-based inertial measurement unit sensors and a specifically trained algorithm identified horses most at risk for fatal musculoskeletal injury (FMI) and whether age, gender, race distance, and track surface were associated with increased risk. Unassigned: Stride data from 28,481 races by 11,834 Thoroughbreds from July 25, 2021, until May 4, 2024, were assigned an algorithm-based risk score from 1 to 6 (6 = greatest risk). Logistic regression models examined the association between incidence of fatal injuries and risk score...
Assessment of thermal imaging to objectively body condition score mature horses and multiparous gestating beef cows. This study explored whether thermal imaging could provide an objective means of body condition scoring (BCS) horses and multiparous, gestating beef cows. This study consisted of two parts: one part assessed BCS in horses of the Quarter Horse or Thoroughbred breed types while the other evaluated BCS of gestating beef cows. Ground truth BCS were assigned by five to eight trained scorers for each animal. Thermal images were also collected from one or both sides of the body and analyzed for surface temperature. Surface temperature and BCS were evaluated with the whole body, and for five (cows) or ...
Correction: Risk assessment in equine anesthesia: a first evaluation of the usability, utility and predictivity of the two-part CHARIOT. [This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1384525.].
The predictive ability of blood-based biomarkers to detect bacteremia in hospitalized neonatal foals. Early and accurate identification of septicemia in neonatal foals improves survival. In human medicine, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio (NMR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) aid in early bacteremia detection. This study evaluated the diagnostic utility of these markers in conjunction with other clinical and hematological parameters in hospitalized foals < 5 days old to predict positive blood culture at admission and to distinguish between Gram-positive, Gram-negative, or polymicrobial bacteremia. A total of 391 f...
Associations between endometrial swab bacteriology and cytology findings and live foal rates in Thoroughbred broodmares in the United Kingdom. To date, relationships between pre-covering endometrial swab cytology and bacteriology and fertility outcomes in Thoroughbred broodmares in the United Kingdom are unknown and could aid clinical decision making. Objective: To investigate associations between cytology and bacteriology findings from the last endometrial swab taken in the breeding season (15 February to 15 July) and live-foal rates (predicted mean probability of producing a live foal) in UK Thoroughbred broodmares. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Endometrial cytology and bacteriology findings were extracted from labo...
Integration of empirical network data and agent-based modelling to examine the risk of equine influenza infection in equine athletes in Ontario, Canada. Horses are frequently transported, creating opportunities for the spread of pathogens. Disease transmission models for equine infectious diseases face limitations on their generalizability due to challenges in describing equine movement and the structure of their contact networks beyond simplistic assumptions. This study aimed to combine a stochastic, agent-based, SEIR model for equine influenza disease dynamics with an observed Ontario, Canada equine contact network structure to quantify the potential magnitude of equine influenza outbreaks in Ontario competition horses under different condit...
Morphometric characteristics of quarter horses in barrel racing events: impacts on performance and competitive success. This study investigated the influence of morphometric characteristics on performance in Quarter Horses competing in barrel racing. Methods: A total of 125 horses were assessed using 28 linear and angular body measurements derived from standardized left-side photographs captured via smartphone and analyzed with open-source software. Results: Measurements were subjected to exploratory factor analysis, extracting six principal components (forequarters, hindquarters, midsection, posterior angles, scapular traits, age and weight), which together explained 83.0 % of the morphological variance. Foreq...
Alactic base excess is not a sensitive or specific diagnostic tool for outcome in horses with colic. Colic is a significant source of morbidity and mortality in horses, and no single biomarker can distinguish surgical from medical colic or predict mortality. Alactic base excess (ABE) has shown an association with mortality and renal insufficiency in humans but has not been evaluated in veterinary species. The purpose of this study was to determine the value of ABE as a diagnostic tool for horses treated for gastrointestinal disease. Unassigned: This retrospective case series evaluated horses admitted for acute gastrointestinal disease over a 5-year period (2019-2024). Signalment, physical exa...
Correction: Modelling African horse sickness emergence and transmission in the South African control area using a deterministic metapopulation approach. [This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011448.].
Quantitative modeling reveals prolonged lactate clearance in young and unraced Jeju horses following high-intensity exercise under passive recovery conditions. To model lactate recovery kinetics in relation to sex, age, running speed, and racing experience, and to estimate blood lactate clearance time under passive recovery conditions that reflect current management practices in Jeju horses, a less well-characterized pony-sized indigenous breed. Unassigned: From October through December 2022, BLC was measured at baseline, 10 minutes after 800-m barrier trials (time [T]-1), and 50 minutes (T2) after 800-m barrier trials in 40 race-trained Jeju horses (2 to 4 years old). Lactate clearance was modeled using nonlinear regression with an exponential decay...
A Markerless Approach for Full-Body Biomechanics of Horses. The ability to quantify equine kinematics is essential for clinical evaluation, research, and performance feedback. However, current methods are challenging to implement. This study presents a motion capture methodology for horses, where three-dimensional, full-body kinematics are calculated without instrumentation on the animal, offering a more scalable and labor-efficient approach when compared with traditional techniques. Kinematic trajectories are calculated from multi-camera video data. First, a neural network identifies skeletal landmarks (markers) in each camera view and the 3D location...
Phenotypic Associations Between Linearly Scored Traits and Sport Horse Auction Sales Price in Ireland. This study examines the associations between linearly scored phenotypic traits and auction sales prices of young event horses in Ireland, aiming to identify key traits influencing market value. Data from 307 horses sold at public auctions (2022-2023) were analysed using regression analysis, binary optimisation, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Regression identified Head-neck Connection, Quality of Legs, Walk length of Stride, and Scope as highly significant predictors of sales price ( < 0.001), with Length of Croup, Trot Elasticity, Trot Balance, and Take-off Direction also significa...
Artificial intelligence in smartphone video analysis for equine asthma diagnostic support. Equine asthma is a prevalent respiratory disease that negatively impacts horses' health and athletic performance. Traditional diagnostic methods are invasive and require specialised equipment. There is a need for a non-invasive, cost-effective screening tool that can be used by veterinarians and horse handlers in ambulatory settings. Objective: To assess the willingness of veterinarians and horse handlers to adopt such a tool (Questionnaire 1) and the challenges associated with visually recognising equine asthma (Questionnaire 2) and to develop EquiBreathe, an artificial intelligence (AI)-powe...
Unwelcome neighbours: Tracking the transmission of Streptococcus equi in the United Kingdom horse population. Strangles (Streptococcus equi infection) remains endemic in the UK, with ~300 laboratory diagnoses annually. Sub-clinically infected long-term carriers are considered a key driver of endemicity. Analysing genomes of circulating strains could provide valuable transmission insights of this pathogen. Objective: To determine the population structure and diversity of UK S. equi isolates and to model transmission using epidemiological and whole genome sequencing data. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional epidemiological and genomic surveillance. Methods: A dated phylogenetic tree derived from 511...
Artificial intelligence tools to assess different levels of activity performed by semi-wild horses in grassland ecosystems. In order to understand the role of horses in ecosystems and to effectively use their grazing in the protection of grasslands, it is important to assess where they primarily stay, followed by whether these habitats are used for grazing or resting. The main goal of the study was the model development based on artificial intelligence tools which allow to distinguish the basic levels of activity performed by horses using data from an accelerometer mounted in a collar worn by animals. The model calibration was based on direct observations of five randomly selected Polish primitive horse mares. In o...
An iterative approach to identify key predictive features of fear reactivity and fearfulness in horses (Equus caballus). This study extends previous findings by applying artificial intelligence (AI) methods to a larger dataset to identify key features that predict fear reactivity (i.e., immediate reaction to fear inducing stimuli) and fearfulness (i.e., a stable personality trait) in 101 Lipizzan horses. The analysis included 221 morphological, kinematic, behavioral and management measurements per horse. Previous findings were confirmed, as body and head size were identified as promising predictors of aspects of fear-related trait. Using an iterative AI approach, six key features for fear reactivity and nine for...
Prediction of the digestibility and digestible energy content of hay for horses using an enzymatic degradability method. The nutritive value of forage for horses is closely dependent on the digestibility of organic matter (OMD), which is typically measured in vivo. Researchers have developed a variety of prediction methods to estimate the digestibility value of hay. In ruminants, pepsin-cellulase degradability, expressed as dry matter enzymatic degradability (dCS) and organic matter enzymatic degradability (dCO), is a commonly employed method for predicting OMD in forage types. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of predicting the dry matter digestibility (DMD), OMD, energy digestibility ...
