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Topic:Predictive Model

Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
The diagnostic accuracy of the Brix refractometer in determining mare colostrum with high and low immunoglobulin G concentrations.
Journal of equine veterinary science    March 17, 2025   105417 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105417
Akköse M.Foals, that receive poor-quality colostrum, are exposed to a risk of failure of transfer of passive immunity. The Brix refractometer can be used for the estimation of the immunoglobulin (IgG) concentration of mare colostrum, yet there is a scarce literature available on Brix refractometer thresholds for use in the detection of mare colostra with high and low IgG concentrations. Objective: This study aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the Brix refractometer in determining mare colostra with IgG concentrations of <50g/L, <60g/L, >80g/L, >100g/L and >125g/L. Methods: Two hundred and seven...
The Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome and Predictors of Infection and Mortality in 1068 Critically Ill Newborn Foals.
Journal of veterinary internal medicine    March 17, 2025   Volume 39, Issue 2 e70004 doi: 10.1111/jvim.70004
Wilkins PA, Wong D, Slovis NM, Collins N, Barr BS, MacKenzie C, De Solis CN, Castagnetti C, Mariella J, Burns T, Perkins G, Delvescovo B, Sanchez LC....Sepsis has been defined in humans as the concurrent proven or suspected presence of microbial infection and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Sepsis is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in neonatal foals. The clinical utility of using SIRS or its individual components to predict infection and mortality in critically ill foals is currently unknown. Objective: Assess the ability of history and signalment, clinical findings, laboratory results, and SIRS-related indices to predict infection and mortality in critically ill foals. Methods: Retrospective, multi-center, cr...
A Retrospective Study on Pre- and Intraoperative Predictors on the Recovery Quality of Horses After General Anesthesia.
Veterinary sciences    March 11, 2025   Volume 12, Issue 3 doi: 10.3390/vetsci12030262
Román Durá B, Dunham O, Grulke S, Salciccia A, Dupont J, Sandersen C.Equine anesthesia is related to high morbidity and mortality rates and recent studies suggested that the period of recovery remains the phase associated with the greatest risk of mortality in horses. Intraoperative hypotension, hypoxemia, and hypercapnia are recognized as potential determinants of recovery quality. This study, conducted at the Equine University Hospital of Liege, aimed to explore how these factors influence recovery outcomes and compare complications between non-emergency and emergency procedures. We analyzed data from 1057 horses, with a mean weight of 498 kg (ranging from 15...
Detection of mare parturition through balanced multi-scale feature fusion based on improved Libra RCNN.
PloS one    March 4, 2025   Volume 20, Issue 3 e0318498 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0318498
Wang B, Duan W, Zhao J, Bai D.Once a mare experiences parturition abnormalities, the outcome between a live foal and a stillborn can change rapidly. Automated detection of mare parturition and timely human intervention is crucial to reducing risks during mare and foal parturition. This paper addresses the challenges of manual monitoring of parturition in large-scale equine facilities due to the unpredictability of mare parturition timing, proposing an algorithm for detecting mare parturition through a balanced multi-scale feature fusion based on an improved Libra RCNN. Initially, a ResNet101 backbone network incorporating ...
Results of the “test-freeze” approach in a commercial program of stallion sperm cryopreservation and the relationship between pre-freeze sperm quality and “freezability.”.
Theriogenology    March 3, 2025   Volume 238 117373 doi: 10.1016/j.theriogenology.2025.117373
Hernández-Avilés C, Varner DD, Ramírez-Agámez L, Samper JC, Love CC.In the current study, we report the effect of different commercially available semen freezing extenders utilized for the "test-freeze" procedure for 13 years (2010-2023) as part of a commercial program of stallion sperm cryopreservation. Ejaculates obtained from sexually active and healthy stallions (n = 124) were cryopreserved using up to five commercially available semen freezing extenders (Lactose-EDTA [LE], MFR5, CryoMax LE [CMLE], CryoMax MFR5 [CMMFR5] or BotuCrio [BC]). Post-thaw sperm motility (total motility - TM [%]; progressive motility - PM [%]; and curvilinear velocity - VCL [μm...
Shoe configuration effects on equine forelimb gait kinetics at a walk.
PeerJ    February 26, 2025   Volume 13 e18940 doi: 10.7717/peerj.18940
Aoun R, Ogunmola Z, Musso A, Taguchi T, Takawira C, Lopez MJ.The shift in vertical forces on the equine hoof surface by heart-bar, egg-bar, and wooden clog shoes can significantly impact gait kinetics. Hypotheses tested in this study were that vertical, braking, and propulsion peak force (PF) and impulse (IMP) are different while shod with heart-bar, egg-bar, open-heel, and wooden clog shoes, or while unshod, and the resultant ground reaction force vector (GRF YZ ) has the longest duration of cranial angulation with open-heel shoes followed by unshod, then egg-bar and heart-bar shoes, and the shortest with wooden clog shoes. Forelimb GRFs were recorded ...
Evaluating plasma lactate running speed derived parameters for predicting maximal lactate steady state in teaching horses.
Journal of equine veterinary science    February 14, 2025   105385 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105385
Littiere TO, Costa GB, Sales NAA, Carvalho JRG, Rodrigues IDM, Ramos GV, Ferraz GC.In humans, there is an ongoing academic discussion about measuring plasma lactate concentration ([La]) during an incremental exercise test (IET) to establish thresholds that can predict the maximal lactate steady state (MLSS). Training studies on horses have utilized the onset of [La] (OBLA), also known as V, the velocity at which the [La] of 4 mM is reached. This study assesses the effectiveness of four methods for estimating the MLSS in teaching horses. Ten teaching horses underwent a single IET to determine four exercise intensity thresholds for predicting MLSS and performed several constan...
Correction: Automated recognition of emotional states of horses from facial expressions.
PloS one    February 12, 2025   Volume 20, Issue 2 e0319501 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319501
Feighelstein M, Ricci-Bonot C, Hasan H, Weinberg H, Rettig T, Segal M, Distelfeld T, Shimshoni I, Mills DS, Zamansky A.[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302893.].
Discrimination of the Lame Limb in Horses Using a Machine Learning Method (Support Vector Machine) Based on Asymmetry Indices Measured by the EQUISYM System.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)    February 12, 2025   Volume 25, Issue 4 1095 doi: 10.3390/s25041095
Poizat E, Gérard M, Macaire C, De Azevedo E, Denoix JM, Coudry V, Jacquet S, Bertoni L, Tallaj A, Audigié F, Hatrisse C, Hébert C, Martin P....Lameness detection in horses is a critical challenge in equine veterinary practice, particularly when symptoms are mild. This study aimed to develop a predictive system using a support vector machine (SVM) to identify the affected limb in horses trotting in a straight line. The system analyzed data from inertial measurement units (IMUs) placed on the horse's head, withers, and pelvis, using variables such as vertical displacement and retraction angles. A total of 287 horses were included, with 256 showing single-limb lameness and 31 classified as sound. The model achieved an overall accuracy o...
Can Arterial Blood Gas, Electrolyte and Acid-Base Analysis at Admission be Used to Predict Survival to Hospital Discharge for Different Causes of Colic?
Veterinary medicine and science    February 6, 2025   Volume 11, Issue 2 e70210 doi: 10.1002/vms3.70210
Milner PI, Bardell D.Predicting outcome in horses presenting with colic remains challenging. Objective: To test whether arterial blood samples in horses admitted for colic predict outcome to hospital discharge for different colic types. Methods: Arterial blood samples collected on admission from 358 horses undergoing medical or surgical management of colic were evaluated for pH, PaO, PaCO, Na, K, iCa, Cl, HCO (P), HCO (P, set), Base (B), Base (ecf) and anion gap. Categories were small intestinal non-strangulating (SINS) or strangulating (SIS) lesions, large colon non-volvulus (LCNV) or volvulus (LCV), small colo...
The value of using multilevel performances (from recreational to international) to the genetic evaluation for show jumping performance in Warmblood horses.
Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience    February 5, 2025   Volume 19, Issue 3 101455 doi: 10.1016/j.animal.2025.101455
Chapard L, Gorssen W, Meyermans R, Hooyberghs K, Buys N, Janssens S.Show jumping is a popular equestrian sport that requires a unique combination of jumping capacity and rideability. It has been shown that genetics play an important role in show jumping performance that has significant implications for horse breeding programmes. This gives an important opportunity for studbooks to breed horses with the potential to perform at the highest level in show jumping competitions. However, show jumping competitions are performed at various levels (from recreational to international level) but only national competition results are used by Warmblood studbooks in most ge...
Convolutional Neural Networks Assisted Peak Classification in Targeted LC-HRMS/MS for Equine Doping Control Screening Analyses.
Analytical chemistry    February 3, 2025   Volume 97, Issue 6 3236-3241 doi: 10.1021/acs.analchem.4c03608
Barnabé A, Delcourt V, Loup B, Montanuy W, Trévisiol S, Popot MA, Garcia P, Bailly-Chouriberry L.Doping control screening analyses usually involve visual inspection of extracted ion chromatograms (EIC) by a trained analytical chemist, followed by further investigations if needed. This task is both highly repetitive and time-consuming, given the hundreds of compounds and metabolites to be screened in tens of thousands of samples per year. With the recent widespread adoption of machine learning in analytical chemistry and the training of high-performance convolutional neural networks (CNN), these operations can be automated with high accuracy and throughput. Applying this technology to dopi...
Identifying Novel Emotions and Wellbeing of Horses from Videos Through Unsupervised Learning.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)    January 31, 2025   Volume 25, Issue 3 doi: 10.3390/s25030859
Bhave A, Kieson E, Hafner A, Gloor PA.This research applies unsupervised learning on a large original dataset of horses in the wild to identify previously unidentified horse emotions. We construct a novel, high-quality, diverse dataset of 3929 images consisting of five wild horse breeds worldwide at different geographical locations. We base our analysis on the seven Panksepp emotions of mammals "Exploring", "Sadness", "Playing", "Rage", "Fear", "Affectionate" and "Lust", along with one additional emotion "Pain" which has been shown to be highly relevant for horses. We apply the contrastive learning framework MoCo (Momentum Contras...
Estimating Total-Tract Digestibility of Nutrients and Their Contribution to Digestible Energy Supplies in Equine Diets.
Journal of equine veterinary science    January 23, 2025   105362 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105362
Webster AP, Price T, Ingersoll T, Suagee-Bedore JK, White RR.Our objectives were to use a quantitative literature review to explore dietary and feed factors influencing apparent total-tract digestibility of dry matter (DMD), crude protein (CPD), neutral detergent fiber (NDFD), ether extract (EED), non-structural carbohydrates (NSCD), non-fiber carbohydrates (NFCD), and residual organic matter (rOMD) in equine diets, and to assess their contributions to digestible energy (DE) supplies. Data from 54 studies were modeled using linear mixed-effect regressions, with publication as a random effect to account for study variability. For each nutrient, five mode...
Comparative Analysis of Genomic and Pedigree-Based Approaches for Genetic Evaluation of Morphological Traits in Pura Raza Española Horses.
Genes    January 23, 2025   Volume 16, Issue 2 131 doi: 10.3390/genes16020131
Ziadi C, Demyda-Peyrás S, Valera M, Perdomo-González D, Laseca N, Rodríguez-Sainz de Los Terreros A, Encina A, Azor P, Molina A.The single-step best linear unbiased predictor (ssGBLUP) has emerged as a reference method for genomic selection in recent years due to its advantages over traditional approaches. Although its application in horses remains limited, ssGBLUP has demonstrated the potential to improve the reliability of estimated breeding values in livestock species. This study aimed to assess the impact of incorporating genomic data using single-step restricted maximum likelihood (ssGREML) on reliability (R) in the Pura Raza Española (PRE) horse breed, compared to traditional pedigree-based REML. Methods: The an...
Distal limb immersion in ice and water is the most effective means of cooling the equine hoof lamellae under clinically relevant conditions.
American journal of veterinary research    January 21, 2025   Volume 86, Issue 3 doi: 10.2460/ajvr.24.10.0291
Ciamillo S, Stefanovski D, Kulp J, van Eps A.To determine the relationship between hoof surface (HS), hoof wall (HW), and lamellar tissue (LAM) temperature during distal limb cooling and evaluate 4 cooling methods in ambulatory horses over extended periods using HW to estimate LAM temperature. Methods: 8 healthy, university-owned horses were enrolled. Temperature was measured over 4 hours at LAM, HS, and HW for 4 cooling methods: ice sleeve (SLEEVE), ice pack system (ICEPACK), low-volume ice water immersion (LV-IMMERSION), and high-volume ice water immersion (HV-IMMERSION). The relationship between HW, HS, and LAM was mathematically mode...
From Prediction to Precision: Explainable AI-Driven Insights for Targeted Treatment in Equine Colic.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI    January 8, 2025   Volume 15, Issue 2 doi: 10.3390/ani15020126
Cetintav B, Yalcin A.Colic is a leading cause of mortality in horses, demanding precise and timely interventions. This study integrates machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to predict survival outcomes in horses with colic, using clinical, procedural, and diagnostic data. Random forest and XGBoost emerged as top-performing models, achieving F1 scores of 85.9% and 86.1%, respectively. SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) was employed to provide interpretable insights, offering both global and local explanations for model predictions. The analysis revealed that key features, such as pulse r...
Single-Step Genome-Wide Association Study of Factors for Evaluated and Linearly Scored Traits in Swedish Warmblood Horses.
Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie    January 4, 2025   Volume 142, Issue 5 499-512 doi: 10.1111/jbg.12923
Nazari-Ghadikolaei A, Fikse WF, Viklund ÅG, Mikko S, Eriksson S.Swedish Warmblood horses (SWB) are bred for show jumping and/or dressage with young horse test scores as indicator traits. This study aimed to investigate possible candidate genes and regions of importance for evaluated and linearly scored young horse test traits. A single-step genome-wide association study (ssGWAS) was done using the BLUPF90 suite of programs for factors scores from factor analysis of traits assessed at young horse tests together with height at withers. The ssGWAS included 20,814 SWB with factors scores for four factors for evaluated traits. A total of 6436 of these horses al...
Factors associated with the selling price of sport horses in public auctions in Ireland.
Journal of equine veterinary science    January 3, 2025   105347 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105347
Corbally AF, Fahey AG.Sale prices at auction significantly impact the economic return of sport horse production. This study aimed to determine factors associated with auction sales prices of sport horses at four maturity stages: foals, juveniles, young horses, and older horses. A total of 42,799 sales records from 2003 to 2022 were obtained from two Irish equine auction companies. A univariate regression model was used, and significant variables underwent multivariate analysis. Within each maturity category, factors associated with above-mean-priced horses differed from those associated with below-mean-priced horse...
Real-time transrectal ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal eye (vitreous body) to predict parturition in bucking horse mares.
Journal of equine veterinary science    January 3, 2025   Volume 145 105345 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105345
Gonzalez SW, Espy BMK, Stefanovski D, Turner RM.Monitoring gestation and predicting parturition in mares with unknown breeding dates is challenging, especially in pasture bred herds of bucking horses. Transrectal ultrasonographic measurement of fetal vitreous body length is a validated predictor of foaling dates, but previous research suggested a need for breed-specific parameters to develop accurate indices for respective breeds. This study aimed to develop a scale associating fetal vitreous body length with days before parturition (DBP) in bucking horses. Biannual data collection over 2 years identified 199 pregnancies out of 240 reproduc...
Rising trends of inbreeding in Japanese Thoroughbred horses.
Journal of equine science    December 12, 2024   Volume 35, Issue 4 57-61 doi: 10.1294/jes.35.57
Watanabe M, Sato F, Innan H.We investigated the changes in inbreeding levels in Japanese Thoroughbred horses over the past 46 years. Our results show a significant increase in inbreeding over the past 30 years, primarily due to the influence of two sires, Northern Dancer and Sunday Silence. Northern Dancer's bloodline spread gradually through descendants like Northern Taste, leading to a slower increase in the inbreeding coefficient. In contrast, Sunday Silence was directly imported and became a leading sire, causing a rapid increase in his blood proportion and inbreeding coefficient. Our findings suggest that monitoring...
Assessment of horse behavior using an activity monitoring device used for cats and dogs.
Journal of equine science    December 12, 2024   Volume 35, Issue 4 47-55 doi: 10.1294/jes.35.47
Matsubara T, Fukatsu R, Yamamoto M, Moriya M, Hano K, Nakamura K, Ohba Y, Takasu M.Including Internet of Things (IoT) technology in horse-rearing management can potentially mitigate problems such as human resource shortages and time limitations in performing daily behavior monitoring. In this study, a small and inexpensive activity meter used to monitor dogs and cats (PLUS CYCLE, JARMeC, Kanagawa, Japan) was used to monitor the daily behavior of horses. A study was performed to examine the suitability of the PLUS CYCLE device for monitoring horses and to determine whether it could estimate horse behavior. The device was equipped with an accelerometer and was used to monitor ...
Sleeping and Eating Behavior Recognition of Horses Based on an Improved SlowFast Network.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)    December 5, 2024   Volume 24, Issue 23 7791 doi: 10.3390/s24237791
Liu Y, Zhou F, Zheng W, Bai T, Chen X, Guo L.The sleeping and eating behaviors of horses are important indicators of their health. With the development of the modern equine industry, timely monitoring and analysis of these behaviors can provide valuable data for assessing the physiological state of horses. To recognize horse behaviors in stalls, this study builds on the SlowFast algorithm, introducing a novel loss function to address data imbalance and integrating an SE attention module in the SlowFast algorithm's slow pathway to enhance behavior recognition accuracy. Additionally, YOLOX is employed to replace the original target detecti...
Horse Diagnosis and Triage Accuracy of GPT-4o.
Studies in health technology and informatics    November 22, 2024   Volume 321 200-204 doi: 10.3233/SHTI241092
Haase L, Monett D, Sedlmayr M.Animal owners may increasingly rely on large language models for gathering animal health information alongside internet sources in the future. This study therefore aims to provide initial results on the accuracy of ChatGPT-4o in triage and tentative diagnostics, using horses as a case study. Ten test vignettes were used to prompt situation assessments from the tool, which were then compared to original assessments made by a veterinary specialist for horses. The most probable diagnosis suggested by ChatGPT-4o was found to be quite accurate in most cases, with the urgency to contact a veterinari...
A machine learning approach to identify stride characteristics predictive of musculoskeletal injury, enforced rest and retirement in Thoroughbred racehorses.
Scientific reports    November 22, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 1 28967 doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79071-1
Bogossian PM, Nattala U, Wong ASM, Morrice-West AV, Zhang GZ, Rana P, Whitton RC, Hitchens PL.Decreasing speed and stride length over successive races have been shown to be associated with musculoskeletal injury (MSI) in racehorses, demonstrating the potential for early detection of MSI through longitudinal monitoring of changes in stride characteristics. A machine learning (ML) approach for early detection of MSI, enforced rest, and retirement events using this same horse-level, race-level, and stride characteristic data across all race sectionals was investigated. A CatBoost model using features from the two races prior to an event had the highest classification performance (sensitiv...
Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Racing Time and Ranking in Thoroughbred Horses.
Journal of equine veterinary science    November 18, 2024   105244 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105244
Padilha DAO, Padilha SF, Martins R, Scheffer BEM, Miliorini MR, Dias LT, Teixeira RA.This study aimed to estimate genetic parameters for race time in seconds and final ranking, as well as to analyze the genetic trends associated with race time. The study utilized a dataset consisting of 23,290 records of race times and final ranks at distances of 1,000, 1,600, and 2,000 m from 6,213 Thoroughbred horses from the São Paulo Jockey Club. Our model considered the year of the run, animal sex, race class, track conditions, the linear effect of horse weight and age, and the quadratic effect of age as fixed covariates. Random effects included direct additive genetic, animal permanent ...
A genome-wide association study of the racing performance traits in Yili horses based on Blink and FarmCPU models.
Scientific reports    November 12, 2024   Volume 14, Issue 1 27648 doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79014-w
Wang C, Zeng Y, Wang J, Wang T, Li X, Shen Z, Meng J, Yao X.Racing performance traits are the main indicators for evaluating the performance and value of sport horses. The aim of this study was to identify the key genes for racing performance traits in Yili horses by performing a genome-wide association study (GWAS). Breeding values for racing performance traits were calculated for Yili horses (n = 827) using an animal model. Genome-wide association analysis of racing performance traits in horses (n = 236) was carried out using the Blink, and FarmCPU models in GAPIT software, and genes within the significant regions were functionally annotated....
Comparison of blood parameters in two genetically different groups of horses for functional longevity in show jumping.
Frontiers in genetics    October 29, 2024   Volume 15 1455790 doi: 10.3389/fgene.2024.1455790
Harari S, Deretz S, Dumont Saint Priest B, Richard E, Ricard A.In order to find early selection criteria to improve the longevity of show jumping horses, a specific protocol was designed. Unassigned: Before entering competition, young horses selected from extreme stallions for longevity were measured for many traits, including blood parameters. Blood samples were taken from 952 horses aged 2-4 years old, sired by two groups of stallions: one with unfavorable (U) and the other with favorable (F) extreme estimated breeding values for functional longevity. These breeding values were previously calculated from data on 202,320 horses that participated in show...
Unravelling the speed-going relationship: A proof of concept study from British turf flat and jump race meetings.
Journal of equine veterinary science    October 24, 2024   Volume 143 105211 doi: 10.1016/j.jevs.2024.105211
Hobbs SJ, Tatlisulu A, Johnson A, Rowlands SD, Lucey M, Martin JH, Graydon RW, Northrop AJ.The maximum galloping speeds of racehorses during a race are influenced by the functional performance of the ground ('going') amongst other factors. For turf racecourses in Britain, the ground is descriptively classified and numerically quantified on the morning of a race meeting by the clerk of the course and subsequently published to assist decision making. Importantly, this includes deciding whether a horse should or should not run. The going is also assessed and classified during the meeting by racing analysts using the normalized winning times from each race result. Differences between go...
Administration Route Differentiation of Altrenogest via the Metabolomic LC-HRMS Analysis of Equine Urine.
Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)    October 22, 2024   Volume 29, Issue 21 4988 doi: 10.3390/molecules29214988
Elbourne M, Keledjian J, Cawley A, Fu S.Altrenogest, also known as allyltrenbolone, is a synthetic form of progesterone used therapeutically to suppress unwanted symptoms of estrus in female horses. Altrenogest affects the system by decreasing levels of endogenous gonadotrophin and luteinizing and follicle-stimulating hormones, which in turn decreases estrogen and mimics the increase of progesterone production. This results in more manageable mares for training and competition alongside male horses while improving the workplace safety of riders and handlers. However, when altrenogest is administered, prohibited steroid impurities su...